Textination Newsline

• Japan replaces Germany as the most important supplier of textile machines
• Digitization is the trend of the future

Beijing (GTAI) - China, the largest apparel export apparel nation, is losing international market share due to rising personnel costs. The companies react with increased automation and production dis-placements. While imports of textile machines from Japan are gro-wing, deliveries from Germany are falling above average. The next wave of modernization will involve more digitization.

Internationally, the PRC is by far the largest exportation nation of clothing. According to UN Comtrade after decades of ascent the peak seems to have crossed in 2014 with a record share of global clothing exports of 39.3%. Since then things are developing slowly but continuously downwards. In 2016, the Chinese share was estimated to be 37.1% (compared to 3.8% in Germany).  China loses market shares particular in favor of ASEAN countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh or India. 

1) from 2014 estimation of world export; 2) based on information provided by partner countries; Source: UN Comtrade

Domestic textile machine manufacturers catching up

In fact, the Chinese textile industry is under considerable pressure because of the increase in personnel expenses. According to a Euromonitor study, the hourly wages of Chinese workers tripled between 2005 and 2016 from USD 1.20 to USD 3.60. Thus the People's Republic not only left classic emerging countries like Thailand ( USD 2.20 ) or Mexico (USD 2.20) behind  - not to mention USD 0.70 in India - but is already approaching individual European countries like Portugal (USD 4,50).

More information (in German) on wages and salary costs in China can be found at:
http://www.gtai.de/GTAI/Navigation/DE/Trade/Maerkte/Geschaeftspraxis/lohn-und-lohnnebenkosten,t=lohn-und-lohnnebenkosten--vr-china,did=1718070.html

Many companies face the challenge by greater automation. The Chinese textile companies can increasingly rely on textile machinery made in the country itself. While in 2016, according to official statistics, investments in the sector rose by 8.5% year on year to Yuan 1,142.4 billion (RMB, around USD 172 billion, 1 USD =6.642 RMB, annual average price in 2016), imports of textile machinery fell by 12.5% to USD 2.8 billion. However, there are no statistics on the extent to which sales are distributed by purely local companies or to those with a foreign background.

The fact is that, for example, German textile machine manufacturers have invested heavily locally in recent years in order for being able to meet the needs of their local customers. Against this backdrop, Germany was still able to defend its top spot with an import share of 29.5% against Japan in 2016, but had to cope with a strong minus of 30.6%, while the Japanese increased by 5.8%. Italy, ranked third and the most important Europe an competitor recorded a drop of 16.1%.

Source: China Customs, GTAI calculation

In the current year 2017, however, the Japanese seem to take the rank of the competitor Germany with an increase of 51% in the first four months. The overall textile machinery import grew by a strong 19.7% after the weak previous year before. Import from Germany however did not benefit from this and fell by 8.9%. As a result the German share of machinery supply decreased from 29.5% (2016 as a whole) to 25.0% in the first four months of 2017, while Japanese companies increased their share from 26.9% to 31.9%.

Source: China Customs, GTAI calculations

Production shift continues

Many Chinese textile companies are also thinking about a dislocation production - either to cheaper foreign countries or to the more favorable Chinese hinterland. In 2016, the Autonomous Region of Xinjiang became the main destination for new settlements in the western part of the People's Republic. On average, two new textile factories were opened every day in Xinjiang.

The regional textile industry office in Xinjiang is expecting an even greater run for 2017, thanks to massive political and financial support. Many jobs however are not created there. On-site visitors report about state-of-the-art facilities operated by only a few specialists. The political message is clear: Chinese textile production should remain in the country, be of a higher quality and, if necessary, be reoriented in the direction of technical textiles.However, at least private fashion manufacturers are skeptical about whether the politically favored "Go-West" actually pays for them. Because there too, wages are likely to rise sooner or later, according to the justified Apprehension.

The fact that Vietnam, Bangladesh, South Korea and Cambodia have entered the league of important PRC purchasing countries within a few years is a result not least of the fact that Chinese (and other) manufacturers already have dislocated production capacities. They return their products from there for sale to China.Nevertheless, the very large displacement wave so far has not yet happened. In fact, certain limits are imposed on the shift, since the target countries often encounter their capacity limits. Added to this is the extraordinary advantageous network of the various production stages in China: from cotton harvesting to textile processing and final finishing.

Future theme digitization As part of the country-wide "Made in China 2025" strategy, the textile industry is trying to exploit the many and new opened possibilities of digitization. In view of the increasing individualization of consumption, more machines will probably be required in the future, which are, for example, able to knit sweaters according to the size, color and pattern of the individual customer. In principle, intelligent networking of production, real shops and e-commerce are seen as the challenge of the future.

• New exhibition area at the Club
• Key topic "ActiveSlow": design and performance meet resource efficiency and recyclability

Enlarged surface area and strong support from exhibitors: excellent signs for Greenshowroom and the Ethical Fashion Show Berlin as they enter the busy preparation phase. 'The booking situation for both trade fairs is highly promising. We have a number of strong labels on board, including both global pioneers and up-and-coming newcomers from the eco fashion segment', says Olaf Schmidt, Vice President Textiles & Textile Technologies at Messe Frankfurt. From 17-19 January 2017, visitors can look forward to an inspiring product range and the largest exhibition surface area the trade fair duo has so far enjoyed on the site of the Berlin Postbahnhof.

Greenshowroom is all about highquality labels presenting contemporary styles. The highlights on the upper floor of the Postbahnhof include Ackermann Taschenmanufaktur with its timelessly elegant bags made from olive leaf-dyed cow leather and aged chamois tanned deer leather – designed and made at the company's own manufactory in Lüneburg. Living Blue, a premium label from northern Bangladesh, will present its new products once again. It creates superb accessories and fashionable pieces using local craftsmanship and home-grown organic indigo dye. New to the trade fairs is the Dutch-New  to Greenshowroom: Rhumnaa South African newcomer label Rhumnaa. The designers at Rhumnaa get their inspiration from the stories of South African artists and develop high-quality fashion lines.

The streetwear segment at the Ethical Fashion Show Berlin will also sparkle with numerous top players. With ShineConcept, Johanna Riplinger presents her second line in the casual segment. The new women's outerwear collection is based on the use of organic cotton that has been enhanced by pure vegetable dyes and is fairly produced in India. Langbrett from Berlin promises trendy clothing, art and zest for life for city residents who surf and is thus one of the major emerging labels at the Ethical Fashion Show Berlin. Remei presents its new Naturaline collection: shirts, sweaters, trousers and more made from sustainably produced organic cotton for the whole family. Lanius will present a collaboration with Kunert, a premium expert in hosiery. Their special focus is on colourful knit groups and new developments in the merino wool segment, namely Lanius ecowool. And the Danish label Amov will celebrate its début at the trade fair – stylish, minimalistic and long-lasting everyday favourites. In January, the Danish newcomers will unveil their third main collection, which has been developed by designer Winnie Wilki Fristrup. The Ethical Fashion Show is developing not only in terms of quality, but also space, and will be expanding its surface area: an additional exhibition area will be created in the Club at the Postbahnhof. The expansion of the surface area has been made possible by moving the fashion shows to the neighboring Energieforum.

Key topic "ActiveSlow"

Progressive design and performance in combination with resource efficiency and recyclability are the central themes of the winter season. In a showcase entitled "Active Wear +", Manufactum and ESMOD Berlin International University of Art for Fashion present a selection of prototypical functional clothing. Selected exhibitors from both trade fairs will also present design innovations that are characterised by their particular focus on resource efficiency, slowness and recyclability. More in-depth information will be provided at the panel discussion entitled: "Save the sea: the issue of textile shedding into water bodies".

• INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION INCREASES
• COMPANIES HAVE TO MODERNIZE PRODUCTION AND INCREASE DEPTH OF PROCESSING

Dubai / Islamabad (GTAI) - Pakistan's textile and clothing industry has urgently to invest. The international competition has intensified. The companies need to modernize their technology and increase their processing depth. The country wants to get away from the production of simple fabrics and yarns. The GSP Plus agreement with the EU and an improvement in the security situation have improved the investment climate. In high-end machines Pakistan is dependent on imports. 

Pakistan's textile and clothing industry expects better sales opportunities abroad in the next few years, particularly with the European Union. Early 2014 Pakistan has received from the EU the GSP Plus status (Generalized System of Preferences) that allows the country to supply goods at a lower rate of duty or even with a completely duty exempt in the EU. Particularly the textile and clothing industry benefits from the agreement, as the sector provides almost 80% of Pakistan's exports to the EU. The government even hopes on additional exports for the sector worth USD 1 billion per year.

Following the latest available trade figures, Pakistan increased in 2014, the year in which the GSP Plus agreement came into force, its total exports of clothing by almost 10% to around USD 5 billion. Official figures of exports to the EU are not available. According to the foreign trade statistics, in any case exports to Germany have increased in clothing by 13% to almost USD 500 million, in textiles by 18% to USD 434 million and in footwear by 27% to USD 34 million.

Source: UN Comtrade

Demand for textile machinery rises
Market observers anticipate increased investments in machinery. A particular dynamic effort is expected in the demand for textile printing machines, dyeing machines, tenter frames and other finishing techniques. Positive for the investment climate will be the effect of the expected increase in textile exports to the EU and the improvement of the security situation. In recent years power shortages and a precarious security situation have inhibited the production and investment activity.

The market for textile machinery (SITC 724) grew significantly since 2014. In the country itself only relatively simple machines are being manufactured. High-end equipment is mostly imported. The import of textile machinery rose to USD 585 million in 2014, an increase of 17% compared to 2013.

*) SITC 724, including pieces
Source: UN Comtrade

*) SITC 724, including pieces

Investments urgently needed
Competition from PR China, Bangladesh, India and Sri Lanka has intensified. Pakistan's textile industry needs to modernize and upgrade, to increase its productivity and the added value. Pakistan covers the entire value chain from fiber preparation from to the end product. Despite this well-position predominantly simple products are being produced. Only an estimated 40 companies are vertically integrated and cover the entire textile processing.
With an annual harvest of about 13 million bales Pakistan is the world's fourth largest cotton producer. In addition about 600.000 tons of synthetic fibers are being manufactured in the country. According to reports there are 21 manufacturers of filament yarn with a capacity of 100.000 t; the production is supported by a PTA plant with a capacity of 500.000 t.

Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; TMA - Towel Manufacturers Association

Yarn production has lost competitiveness
According to sector experts In the past decade yarn manufacturers made no larger investments to upgrade their production, although money would have been available for such investments.  The reason for that should have been the heavy competition from China, India and Bangladesch.  Ten years ago Pakistan used to be one of the most efficient yarn manufacturers worldwide. Because modernization investments failed to materialize, this technique applies as outdated in Pakistan today.

The companies complain about high production costs and are demanding more favorable electricity tariffs and protectionist measures against import competition. A negative effect on the production and the investment climate in the country also have the electricity shortages and the tense security Situation.

The textile sector in Pakistan is characterized by numerous large textile companies with quite a large number of small businesses opposite which mostly belong to the so-called informal sector. The informal sector, for example, includes small family companies or small productions, which are not taxable. The informal sector produces mainly simple products for the domestic market. It works with discarded equipment of the larger companies, imported used machinery or cheap equipment from China. The official statistics do not take the informal sector into account.

• Fiber Production for the first Time in five Years lower than Consumption

• Vietnam is largest beneficiary
• Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

Labor costs in China will not move down again. Even when the economic growth increasingly weakens, China's coastal regions are already often too expensive for wage-intensive productions. The world's largest location of the manufacturing sector will anyway leave its dependence of exports and will generate more growth through domestic consumption. The remaining companies are therefore increasingly focused on Chinese customers. Has the textile industry heard the signals already several years ago and shifted away, now the electronics companies have started to search.

But – the relocation of production is not so easy, the experts agreed upon at the discussion panel Shifting Supply Chains in Asia on the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong. Because no country, except India, offers such a workforce. But neither the infrastructure and the investment climate can match, nor the country has any interest in low-production stages. Furthermore China has set up a supply industry without any comparison.

Relocation trends slow down

Even Bangladesh, established for a long time as a cheap location for clothes, is losing its attractiveness - experts say. Besides fundamentally difficult production conditions especially scandals like collapsing factories are responsible. No western clothing manufacturer likes to be associated with that repute today. While Indonesia was generally judged for being rather little investment friendly, the Philippines would provide a better reputation than years ago. So in addition to numerous Japanese producers also German companies have moved from southern China to the special areas of the Philippines.

Due to wage cost increases by an average of 15% per year, China with it’s the low-wage area has catapulted itself in a large extent out of the market. In times of rising productivity this was compensated for a while but at last the model came to its limits. The empire of the middle will therefore make the leap to a consumptionbased growth based on production of high-tech and on the provision of services. It is still
unclear whether this leap across the "middleincome trap" will succeed. Many emerging countries are caught in this trap, and the growth is flagging.

German buyers order less in China

Accordingly German retailers are increasingly reducing their imports from China and buy more and more in other countries. This is the result of a member survey of the Foreign Trade Association of German Retailers (AVE), at which for the most part textile and shoe retailers participated. 80% of the respondents have already reduced their import volume from China in 2015, 90% of the companies said they are
planning to source from other supply regions. The merchants are seeing a shift to countries like Myanmar (78%), Bangladesh (67%) and Vietnam (56%).

Vietnam, which already benefited in recent years from the relocation, was still recommended on the AFF as a top location. The country with the highest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2015 would have risen in the 1st half of 2015 to the fourth-largest exporter of textiles, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) analyzed. For shoes it is already the third largest supplier worldwide. Based on mega investments from Samsung, now the electronics industry came out of the starting blocks and should attract more activities. Experts cite especially the mixture of young, growing populations with low labor costs as an important locational advantage.

Vietnam benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTA)

A thrust Vietnam's attractiveness currently receives through free trade agreements which are in a final stage. So a free trade agreement with the European Union was signed in December 2015 which was followed early February 2016 by the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The latter agreement, which includes next to ten other Pacific neighbors the United States, should bring a large benefit for Vietnam. For the Vietnamese consumer goods manufacturers the US is the most important market, the large retailers in the United States can move their procurements very fast.

As an underdeveloped member Vietnam is likely to get larger portions of the value chain in the textile and electronics area at the ratification (and even before). The country is still missing a developed supplier structure. This is just happening to be built in the textile sector, there are investments in capacity for yarns, fabrics and dyeing going on. For Samsung, the largest foreign investor, all components are still coming
from China. And only when a large proportion of the added value comes from TPP member states, the low duty will become applicable.

While the purchasing power is not quite so big in Europe, costs play an important role also there. But next to it the control of the supply chain and the flexibility has developed a greater role, rapid changes of trends and collections are determined by customers and the Internet. Therefore also here a shift back, closer to the markets, has begun. Romania and Bulgaria have established themselves in the middle of
Europe as a "low-wage locations". But even there the population is characterized by aging. Accordingly labor forces will become scare and wages will rise. Ukraine is traded as a new location.

Africa still with small potential

Little potential the experts from the Supply Chain Panels evidence the location of sub-Saharan Africa. This was tested by some buyers or producers, but the results would not be convincing. The views however diverge. Some Chinese companies are already partly on site and American manufacturers are monitoring the further development. So, for example, the VF Corporation, the largest denim retailer in the world, is buying in Africa. Only Ethiopia would have potential - according to a representative. But the infrastructure, investment climate and working morale could not be comparable.

So - basically serious alternatives to the established locations are lacking. Therefore, due to the scarcity of labor, costs and thus the final prices will rise. Even in Vietnam the minimum wage increased by 15% in 2015. But when it will be hardly possible to turn at the purchase screw, the companies need to position themselves better in marketing and sales, so a large clothing buyer. Therefore social media must be used in order to come closer to the customer and, for example, to develop individualization as a selling point.

Source: McKinsey survey of chief purchasing managers

• Creating local branding
• Gradual relocation towards abroad

Beijing (gtai) - Away from cheap mass production or relocation are the alternatives for the Chinese textile and clothing industry. A domestic "Go-West" does probably not pay off in the long term, the migration however to Southeast Asia has already started. At the same time German quality suppliers expect new sales opportunities if the companies strengthen their competitive position through more quality. This became clear at the last "Intertextile" October 2015 in Shanghai.

The Chinese textile and clothing industry is under massive pressure of costs. Away from cheap mass production or relocation is the need of the hour. Until now the industry is primarily located at the Pearl River and the attached Yangtze River Delta, where wages on average are the highest nationwide. According to the China National Garment Association (CNGA) about 70% of the production volume account for the five provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian and Guangdong.

Supported by the policy is the move to the more favorable central and western provinces. This happens not least to the preservation of local jobs and the development of the far less booming regions of the country. In this sense not only the CNGA endorses the relocation of clothing manufacturers to Xinjiang. In the western province 30% of the cotton of the country is grown, which with 6.2 million tons in 2014 is the largest cotton producing area in the world. After association investments the authorities are planning investments amounting to USD 3.2 billion, amongst other things for the establishment of "Textile Industry Parks".

Another attempt to shift the Chinese textile industry from the coast to the west, represents the Ningxia Ecological Rextile Industrial Demonstration Park, which was opened in December 2014. According to China.org.cn by 2020 here about 50,000 people work should be working there in the textile industry.

"Go West" is not attractive for private textile and clothing companies

To which extent these efforts will be successful remains to be seen. However, said by a Chinese businesswoman, "Go West" at best will be a medium-term solution, because also there sooner or later the wages would rise (not to mention the already there noticeable higher logistics and other costs). If to move, then only to permanently cheaper overseas locations. A migration to Vietnam, Bangladesh or Cambodia is already going on. But the fact is that so far a large displacement wave - at home or abroad - has not yet happened.

That Vietnam and Bangladesh have climbed in a few years to the third and fourth place of the main source countries for the PRC in terms of clothing (Vietnam: USD 587.5 million, Bangladesh: USD 364,7 each in the first ten months of 2015 for HS-Pos. 61 and 62), results very predominantly on already shifted production capacities of Chinese manufacturers. They bring their products from there back to China to sell them here.

Vietnam as a manufacturing site should also gain in the course of the in October 2015 successfully completed negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement between the US and Vietnam in importance for Chinese enterprises. After coming into effect exports from Vietnam to the United States will be duty-free. In November 2015 for example was to read in China Daily, the Huafeng Co. of Shandong would be planning to build a textile mill in the Southeast Asian neighboring country with an investment of 700 million Renminbi (RMB - approximately 110 million USD, 1 USD= 0,157 RMB, the average rate as of November 2015).

Cambodia does not play in the foremost league yet, but pushes with power forward: During the named period, imports of knitted and crocheted clothing rose by 38.1% to USD 124.8 million (HS-Pos. 61) and other clothes (HS-Pos. 62) by 18.4% to USD 32.3 million.

However, for the relocation certain limits are set as the target countries often reach their capacity limits. Considered has to be the in China existing extremely advantageous integration of the various stages from cotton growing over the wide textile processing up to the final cutting and sewing of clothing.

Superiority in quality rather than relocation

Instead on a further relocation innovative companies and designers rely on an upgrading of their products. The aim is to serve more demanding customers in the Chinese market - and to position themselves abroad. To these belongs the fashion designer Ma Ke, who designs clothes for China's First Lady Peng Liyuan, or Guo Pei, who caused stir with her creation for the singer Rihanna at the Met Gala 2015 in New York.

Apart from individual stars of the scene also increasingly large companies such as the down jacket specialist Bosideng or the men’s wear designer Mark Fairwhale and Ningbo PeaceBird move away from pure volume production towards brand building and quality. Bosideng has even opened its own flagship store in London. The awareness of important Chinese brands such Heilan Home or Metersbonwe is still limited to local customers, for the majority of European buyers they are not a concept. But according to sector insiders this is likely to change, step by step.

Source: China Daily based on Euromonitor

For German suppliers in terms of top materials (usually the most expensive materials), accessories (such as interlinings, buttons, thread, packaging) or also in cutting and sewing, China remains interesting. This was demonstrated once again at the last "Intertextile" in October 2015 Shanghai.

Two opposing trends are apparent: On the one hand exhibitors reported about a shift in demand to other countries in the wake of rising wages and ancillary wage costs. On the other hand suppliers of more expensive products can now look and hope beyond of inexpensive mass markets to the emergence of new niches, so a producer of woven-real hair fur materials. A provider of real horn buttons thinks similar.

The next "Intertextile" with a German pavilion takes place from October 11th to 13th 2016 in Shanghai ("Intertextile Shanghai Apparel Fabrics Autumn Edition"; information under www.auma.de or www.intertextile.com.cn).

Generally exhibitors recommend for risk diversification to build a second pillar next to the site in China. "The caravan moves on," is said. Currently the lowest wages for garment workers are being paid in Bangladesh, the country also benefits from duty-free agreements for imports into the EU. The latter also applies for Cambodia. Also very competitive the seamstresses are working in Vietnam and India. Moreover, Africa (specifically for example Ethiopia) will play an important future role, also a production facility in Korea (Dem.) is not outrageous for Chinese textile companies.

In general free trade agreements should get considerably more weight in future, as this is the case today.