From the Sector

Happy New Year 2024! Here's to a year full of innovation and success in the textile and apparel industry.

The Textination team sincerely wishes you a great start: may 2024 be full of health, joy and energy for you.

There are undoubtedly 365 days of exciting encounters, developments, innovations and new trends ahead in our shared world of the textile and apparel industry. We would like to join you on this journey and document the many facets of our industry.

We are convinced that the new year will be just as fascinating and inspiring for our users as the best textile products and designs that our industry has to offer. We look forward to accompanying you through the coming 12 months with the latest news, in-depth analyses and exclusive insights.

Thank you for your continued support and interest in Textination.

Together we will tell textile tomorrow!

Ines Chucholowius
- Managing Director -

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) President and CEO Kim Glas issued a statement today on the White House announcement that President Biden will sign an executive order today, “ensuring the future of America is Made in America by all of America’s workers.”  Further, NCTO launched a new industry video campaign today that outlines steps the Biden administration and Congress must take to re-shore the production of personal protective equipment (PPE) and the entire supply chain for critical products. The video can be found here: MakeAmericanPPE.

National Council of Textile Organizations President and CEO Kim Glas said:
“We commend President Biden for taking action in his first days in office to strengthen our domestic supply chain and manufacturing base with a “Made in America” executive order directing the federal government to spend taxpayer dollars on American-made goods produced by American workers using American-made components.

Increasing the domestic procurement threshold and the price preferences for domestic goods under the current Buy American law will bolster domestic production and stimulate more investment in U.S. manufacturing.

We believe it is critical that taxpayer dollars are used to invest in American manufacturing and our workforce. It is essential that we close loopholes in our Buy America laws, expand application and product coverage of domestic content rules, and close unnecessary contract waivers that undermine American manufacturing and its workforce.
 
We look forward to working with the Biden administration and Congress on immediately strengthening our domestic procurement laws. The COVID-19 crisis was exacerbated when foreign supply chains broke down leaving our frontline workers vulnerable, underscoring the vital need for America to manufacture essential medical products at home. We look forward to working with the Biden administration on implementing this Executive Order, and with members of Congress to push critical bipartisan legislation to help ensure this onshoring effort is fully realized.

We also sincerely thank Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Representative Kathy Manning (D-NC) for their leadership in sending a recent letter to President Biden, requesting the president prioritize “Made in America” personal protective equipment (PPE) purchases and outlining key steps the administration can take to produce and procure quality American-made PPE for frontline workers.”

In the relatively short space of time since the last EuroShop in 2017, a lot has changed in retail. Everywhere you look, technology is transforming the way that consumers interact and transact with brands. At EuroShop 2020, 16 to 20 February in Düsseldorf, the 550 international exhibitors of the experience dimension “Retail Technology” (from the more than 2,300 international EuroShop exhibitors) provide impressive proof of this. In the run-up to EuroShop, we had a look around the international stores to see what is already being offered to customers in terms of high-tech.

Spanish fast-fashion retailer Zara has introduced self-service checkouts in store as well as interactive mirrors equipped with RFID; Nike is using local data at its House of Innovation 000 in New York City to stock shelves and restock them based on what the community wants; and at skincare brand SK-II’s Future X Smart Stores in Tokyo, Shanghai and Singapore, visitors are able to experience next generation skin counselling through a magic scan (an AI-enabled skin analysis that unlocks skin age and personalises product recommendations by sitting in front of a mirror for three minutes). There are even coffee shops using robot baristas to serve drinks, such as Café X in San Francisco and Ratio in Shanghai. And then, of course, there is Amazon Go, where customers can pick up shopping and walk out, with payment made automatically through the app.

• Deep Insights into the Multifaceted World of Cotton
• Quality, Innovation and Digitalisation are Crucial

From the 21st to the 23rd of March, the international cotton industry came together in the historic Bremen Town Hall, under the motto "Cotton Insights". More than 500 participants from almost 40 countries came to exchange views on the latest trends in the natural raw material as part of the conference organised by the Bremen Cotton Exchange in cooperation with the Fibre Institute Bremen. The 34th International Cotton Conference provided a varied, in-depth programme which addressed the current and burning issues within the industry.

Summarising his visit to the conference, Kai Hughes, Executive Director of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC) in Washington said “The Bremen Cotton Conference is unique because it brings the diverse world of cotton together in one place. It is always a great opportunity to learn about the latest innovations, talk to cotton merchants and get an overview of the industry".

Sustainability and Cotton
This year, the conference developed into a whole week of diverse events around the entire cotton supply chain. With the “SUSTAIN” event, which was organised in cooperation with the Weser-Kurier newspaper, it was possible to build a bridge between the issue of sustainability and the end consumer.
With the focus on Africa, the emerging continent, which also has a special significance for cotton, became the centre of attention.

In his opening speech, Henning Hammer, President of the Bremen Cotton Exchange, made it clear that sustainability is also of great importance during the Cotton Conference: "The three pillars of sustainability – the environment, the economy and social issues – were already playing a role in the cotton industry when the word sustainability was far from being on everyone's lips.
Many changes that are being demanded in the sense of responsible agriculture and responsible trade take their time, many are already in the starting blocks and a lot already exists. We have a very alert, active agricultural research worldwide."

The Keynotes
The keynote session, moderated by the journalist Lisa Boekhoff from the newspaper Weser-Kurier, gave participants an overview, with an informative analysis of the current cotton situation. Kai Hughes, executive director of ICAC, emphasised in his keynote address the need to provide credible facts and figures which should be the basis for the entire supply chain. The marketing of cotton and changing consumer habits in a globalised and digitalised world were the subject of lectures by Mark Messura, Cotton Incorporated and Robert Antoshak, Olah Inc. Eugen Weinberg and Michael Alt from Commerzbank took a look at the raw material from a stock market perspective.

Traceability and Digitalisation
Digitalisation is also a cross-cutting issue that runs through the entire supply chain of the cotton industry. In his opening speech, Prof. Axel S. Hermann, Head of the Fibre Institute Bremen, emphasised the importance of digitalisation for the industry. “It enables new approaches in cotton cultivation and textile processing, but also influences consumer behaviour and thus the necessary changes in the textile industry.” The focus is on the status quo of the implementation, as well as the opportunities and risks of digitally controlled, vertically integrated procurement and sales processes and the associated challenges at retail level.

Another current topic is traceability, which is also closely linked to sustainability. More and more buyers want to know whether their suppliers are meeting the promised sustainability criteria for their products, also textile products. Consequently, the conference presented various techniques for testing the authenticity of a cotton provided in the finished textile, such as DNA testing, fingerprint analysis technique, marker methods and block-chain processes.

Cotton Quality
In addition to current subjects such as digitalisation and traceability, questions of cotton quality have traditionally been an essential element of the Cotton Conference, which was further reinforced this year with the "Spinners Seminar". The spinning mill seminar, which was carried out by the Cotton Exchange and the Fibre Institute in cooperation with the ITMF and IVGT associations, far exceeded expectations.

More than 70 participants discussed the handling of impurities in supplied cotton in the manufacturing process.
In addition, in a high-level expert session, there was an exchange of the latest research results which determine the future of cotton production and the processing of cotton into innovative products.