From the Sector

A new fabric inspection technique for accurately detecting the most subtle of defects on patterned fabrics during high speed production has been developed by BTMA member Shelton Vision, of Leicester, UK.

The patent-pending system has been integrated into the company’s WebSpector platform and validated through factory trials on a purpose-built full scale in-house demonstration system with sophisticated fabric transport capabilities. As a result, a first system has already been ordered by a manufacturer of both plain and patterned fabrics, including camouflage, in Colombia. This follows the successful conclusion of a 21-month Innovate UK project in which techniques for the resolution of complex pattern deformations were developed by machine vision and computer scientists in the company, backed up by the machine vision and robotics department at Loughborough University.

Restrictions
Traditional methods for defect detection rely on human inspection which is ineffective, with detection rates under 65%, while the Shelton WebSpector machine vision system offers a sophisticated platform for automated defect detection of over 97%, but until now has been restricted to plain textiles.

While pattern matching and neural network approaches have previously been tried for patterned textiles, they have failed to provide a practical solution due to the extreme complexity associated with pattern matching on deformable substrates like textiles, as well as the time required to train a neural network for each pattern type.

Challenges
The challenge is that fabrics are not rigid and can be creased or stretched and are also subject to local distortion,” says Shelton Vision Managing Director and CEO Mark Shelton. “As a result, inspection without the technique we have developed, would lead to thousands of false positives. Our sophisticated pattern inspection software techniques ensure a clean image, allowing the detection of faults on fabrics running at speeds of up to a hundred metres a minute.”

The full system consists of:

• A camera and lighting system for optimum image capture at high speed and associated image processing hardware.
• Self-training software utilising statistical analysis to automate the system configuration for new textile products.
• An advanced suite of defect detection algorithms for the detection of all textile defect types.
• An AI-driven defect classification system which learns and automates defect naming in real time, as well as a real time defect grading capability based on client decision rules.
• A system for recording and retrieving complete roll map images for subsequent review and quality control.

The generation of textile roll maps with complete defect data allows for an optimised textile cut plan, improved downstream processing and quality assurance.

Freudenberg Performance Materials Apparel (Freudenberg) is pleased to announce the establishment of the Apparel Technical Solution Center – Asia at its Nantong factory in China to expand the company’s innovation capabilities. With floor space of 900 m2, the new center offers technical expertise and innovations to apparel customers from nearly all apparel segments in Asia and around the world.

New capabilities with the Apparel Technical Solution Center – Asia
Committed to bringing enhanced technical support and services tailored to customers’ needs, the dedicated Apparel Technical Solution Center – Asia (ATSC) is equipped with cutting-edge technology. This includes a wide variety of fusing and bonding machines, laser and ultrasonic cutters, specialized sewing machines for sportswear applications, fiber filling machines for insulation applications, and washing and dry-cleaning machines that meet GB and AATCC standards.

The ATSC offers technical know-how to help customers design complex apparel solutions. In particular, it furthers Freudenberg’s dedication to joint innovations with sportswear customers and to finding technical solutions for performance applications.

Further innovation at the Nantong factory
The factory was moved to the Nantong Economic and Technological Development Area to meet increased production demand with state-of-the-art technological capabilities. Covering an area of nearly 50,000 m² with cotton interlining, bi-elastic fusible interlining, and preformed materials production lines, the new site went into operation in 2021.

Dedicated to continuously improving production quality, the new factory also includes an innovative online defect detection system. This system enables defect information to be captured in real time and sent to operators for immediate adjustments, increasing the rate of bi-elastic interlinings and shirt interlinings. Furthermore, the online weft density automatic adjustment system helps improve the stability of the drying process and the quality of semi-finished products.

Der Bundesverband Medizintechnologie (BVMed) unterstützt den im Juli 2022 begonnenen „Dialogprozess“ des Bundesgesundheitsministeriums (BMG) und das aktuelle Papier der „Medical Device Coordination Group“ (MDCG) auf EU-Ebene, um die Probleme bei der Implementierung der EU-Medizinprodukte-Verordnung (MDR) durch pragmatische Lösungen anzugehen.

Die „Medical Device Coordination Group“ hat am 26. August 2022 ein Papier veröffentlicht, das Maßnahmen zur Verbesserung der Kapazitäten der Benannten Stellen, zum Zugang zu Benannten Stellen und zur Vorbereitung der Hersteller enthält, um die MDR-Implementierung zu unterstützen und Versorgungsengpässe mit Medizinprodukten zu vermeiden.

Der BVMed begrüßt zahlreiche der vorgeschlagenen Maßnahmen. So wird empfohlen, hybride Audits wo immer möglich durchzuführen sowie vorgeschlagen, bei der Überwachung von „Legacy Devices“ (Bestandsprodukten) die „Flexibilität voll auszunutzen“. Zudem sollen MDCG-Guidances überarbeitet werden, um unnötigen Verwaltungsaufwand zu beseitigen. Außerdem sollen vor und während der Konformitätsbewertungsverfahren strukturierte Dialoge zwischen Benannter Stelle und Hersteller aufgenommen werden. Viele der sinnvollen Ansätze sind jedoch wenig konkret und es fehlen mögliche legislative Maßnahmen. So beispielsweise ein Durchführungsrechtsakt zu Art. 97 (3), um die Anwendung europaweit zu harmonisieren.

„Das MDCG-Papier hilft, aber wir brauchen schnell weitere, konkrete und vor allem pragmatische Maßnahmen, um die Warteschleifen im Zertifizierungsstau aufzulösen. Wir müssen Tempo machen und brauchen weitere Schritte“, so BVMed-Geschäftsführer und Vorstandsmitglied Dr. Marc-Pierre Möll.

Der BVMed setzt sich unter anderem für folgende Maßnahmen ein:

• Der Fokus bei MDR-Zertifizierungen muss auf dem Delta zu den Richtlinien liegen („GAP Review“): Die Benannte Stelle sollte bei „Legacy Devices“ das Review auf die Forderungen der MDR, die über die bereits bekannten Forderungen der alten Richtlinien hinaus gehen, fokussieren. Dabei sollten bereits bekannte Alt-Nachweise verwendet werden, bei denen sich die Anforderungen von denen der MDR nicht unterscheiden.
• „Zertifikate unter Auflagen“ sollten nicht auf klinische Daten limitiert werden: Zertifikate unter Auflagen gab es bereits unter den Richtlinien. Diese dürfen nicht rein auf klinische Daten limitiert werden, wenn keine Zweifel an der Sicherheit oder Performance des Produktes bestehen.
• Aussetzen von „Scope Extension Audits“: Hersteller, die eine langjährige Geschäftsbeziehung mit ihrer Benannten Stelle haben, sind mit ihren Prozessen, Fertigungsanlagen, größtenteils auch Mitarbeitern bei den Auditoren und Reviewern bekannt. Ein Verschieben dieser Audits in das nächste Überwachungsaudit würde Kapazitäten für andere wichtige Reviews und Audits freigeben.
• Lösungen für Hersteller ohne Benannte Stelle: Es werden dringend Lösungen für Medizinprodukte-Hersteller benötigt, die trotz großer Aufwände und Bemühungen noch immer keine Benannte Stelle gefunden haben.

„Schnelligkeit ist jetzt wichtig. Alle Anstrengungen, die erst am Ende des Jahres greifen, kommen zu spät. Denn die MedTech-Unternehmen müssen jetzt schwierige Entscheidungen darüber treffen, welche Produkte im Markt gehalten werden können. Deshalb brauchen wir jetzt eine europaweit abgestimmte Strategie mit pragmatischen Lösungen“, so Möll.

The world’s largest fashion brands and retailers must increase transparency to tackle the climate crisis and social inequality, according to the latest Fashion Transparency Index.

The seventh edition of the Fashion Transparency Index ranks 250 of the world’s largest fashion brands and retailers based on their public disclosure of human rights and environmental policies, practices, and impacts, across their operations and supply chains.

• Brands achieved an average score of just 24%, with nearly a third of brands scoring less than 10%
• The majority of brands (85%) do not disclose their annual production volumes despite mounting evidence of clothing waste around the world
• Most major brands and retailers (96%) do not publish the number of workers in their supply chain paid a living wage

The Index reveals insights into the most pressing issues facing the fashion industry, like:

• As new and proposed legislation focuses on greenwashing claims, almost half of major brands (45%) publish targets on sustainable materials yet only 37% provide information on what constitutes a sustainable material.
• Only 24% of major brands disclose how they minimise the impacts of microfibres despite textiles being the largest source of microplastics in the ocean.
• The vast majority of major brands and retailers (94%) do not disclose the number of workers in their supply chains who are paying recruitment fees. This paints an unclear picture of the risks of forced labour as workers may be getting into crippling debt to accept jobs paying poverty wages.
• While many brands use their channels to talk about social justice, they need to go beyond lip service. Just 8% of brands publish their actions on racial and ethnic equality in their supply chains.

Despite these results, Fashion Revolution is encouraged by increasing supply chain transparency among many major brands, primarily with first-tier manufacturers where the final stage of production occurs, e.g. cutting, sewing, finishing and packing. Nine brands have disclosed their first-tier manufacturers for the first time this year. It is encouraging to see significant progress across market segments including luxury, sportswear, footwear and accessories and across different geographies.

Fashion Revolution’s co-founder and Global Operations Director Carry Somers says: “In 2016, only 5 out of 40 major brands (12.5%) disclosed their suppliers. Seven years later, 121 out of 250 major brands (48%) disclose their suppliers. This clearly demonstrates how the Index incentivises transparency but it also shows that brands really are listening to the millions of people around the world who keep asking them #WhoMadeMyClothes? Our power is in our persistence.”

More key findings from the Fashion Transparency Index 2022:

Progress on transparency in the global fashion industry is still too slow among 250 of the world’s largest fashion brands and retailers, with brands achieving an overall average score of just 24%, up 1% from last year
For another year, the initiative has seen major brands and retailers publicly disclose the most information about their policies, commitments and processes on human rights and environmental topics and significantly less about the results, outcomes and impacts of their efforts.

Most (85%) major brands still do not disclose their annual production volumes despite mounting evidence of overproduction and clothing waste
Thousands of tonnes of clothing waste are found globally. However, brands have disclosed more information about the circular solutions they are developing (28%) than on the actual volumes of pre- (10%) and post-production waste they produce (8%). Brands have sat by as waste importing countries foot the bill, resulting in serious human rights and environmental implications.

Just 11% of brands publish a responsible purchasing code of conduct indicating that most are still reluctant to disclose how their purchasing practices could be affecting suppliers and workers
Greater transparency on how brands interact with their suppliers ought to be a first step towards eliminating harmful practices and promoting fair purchasing practices. The poor performance on transparency in this vital area is a missed opportunity for brands to demonstrate they are serious about addressing the root causes of harmful working conditions, including the instances where they themselves are the key driver.

Despite the urgency of the climate crisis, less than a third of major brands disclose a decarbonisation target covering their entire supply chain which is verified by the Science-Based Targets Initiative
Many brands and retailers rely heavily on garment producing countries that are vulnerable to the impacts of the climate crisis, yet our research shows that only 29% of major brands and retailers publish a decarbonisation target covering their operations and supply chain which is verified by the Science Based Targets Initiative.

Only 11% of brands publish their supplier wastewater test results, despite the textile industry being a leading contributor to water pollution
The fashion industry is a major contributor to water pollution and one of the most water intensive industries on the planet. Only 11% of major brands publish their wastewater test result, and only 25% of brands disclose the process of conducting water-related risk assessments in their supply chain. Transparency on wastewater test results is key to ensuring that brands are held accountable for their potentially devastating impacts on local biodiversity, garment workers and their communities.

Most major brands and retailers (96%) do not publish the number of workers in their supply chain paid a living wage nor do they disclose if they isolate labour costs
Insufficient progress is being made by most brands towards ensuring that the workers in their supply chain are paid enough to cover their basic needs and put aside some discretionary income. Just 27% of brands disclose their approach to achieving living wages for supply chain workers and 96% do not publish the number of workers in their supply chain paid a living wage. In response, we have joined forces with allies across civil society to launch Good Clothes, Fair Pay. The campaign demands groundbreaking living wage legislation across the garment, textile and footwear sector.

• Focus on Rethinking, Reusing and Recycling Nonwovens this September
• Industry Experts Present Material Science Innovations & Sustainability

More than 20 industry experts will present their views on how material science innovations can create a more sustainable future for the nonwovens industry at the Research, Innovation & Science for Engineered Fabrics (RISE®) Conference, Sept. 27-28 in Raleigh, at North Carolina State University, co-organized by INDA and The Nonwovens Institute at North Carolina State University.

Starting with responsible sourcing of nonwoven inputs to developing realistic end-of-life options and circularity opportunities, RISE will focus on rethinking, reusing and recycling nonwovens and engineered materials at the Talley Student Union in Raleigh.    

Participants will learn what’s coming next with sessions on the following six themes: Towards a More Circular Industry; Advancement in Sustainable Inputs; Development in Natural Fibers; Sustainable Inputs: Fibers and Biofibers; Waste Not, Want Not, Sustainable Inputs from Waste Products; and Economic Insights and Market Intelligence.

The 12th edition of RISE® will bring together thought leaders in product development, materials science, and new technologies to connect and convene for the industry’s premier nonwovens science and technology conference.

Expert speakers will address the latest trends and innovations around circularity – an important component of sustainability strategies that aims to return a product into the supply chain, instead of the landfill, after users are done consuming it.

RISE® session highlights include:

• The Global Plastic Crisis: Who Will Be the Winners/Losers in The Marketplace?
  Bryan Haynes, Ph.D., Senior Technical Director, Global Nonwovens, Kimberly-Clark Corporation
• Sustainable Fibers – Developments and the Future
  Jason Locklin, Ph.D., Director, University of Georgia, New Materials Institute and David Grewell, Ph.D., Center Director, Center for Bioplastics and Biocomposites
• Thinking Differently: In a Changing World What’s Next for NatureWorks and Polylactic Acid Polymers (PLA)
  Liz Johnson, Ph.D., Vice President of Technology, NatureWorks LLC
• PLA and PLA Blends: Practical Aspects of Extrusion
  Behnam Pourdeyhimi, Ph.D., William A. Klopman Distinguished Professor and Executive Director, The Nonwovens Institute, North Carolina State University
• Hemp is Strong – Are You?
  Olaf Isele, Strategic Product Development Director, Trace Femcare, Inc.
• Exploring Natural Fibers in Nonwovens
  Paul Latten, Director of Research and Development & New Business, Southeast Nonwovens, Inc.
• Potential Nonwoven Applications of Tree-Free Fibers Made from Microbial Cellulose –
  Heidi Beatty, Chief Executive Officer, Crown Abbey, LLC
• Ultra Fine Fibers Made from Recycled Materials
  Takashi Owada, General Manager, Teijin Frontier (U.S.A.), Inc.

The event also will feature the presentation of the RISE® Innovation Award, a special opportunity to tour the Nonwovens Institute’s state-of-the-art facilities with advance registration required, and poster presentations by North Carolina State University graduate students.

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

According to the World Health Organization (WHO), cardiovascular disease is one of the most common natural causes of death. Every year, it is the cause of death of around 17 million people worldwide. The Peter Dornier Foundation Prize 2022 has now awarded a research work that is to improve the medical care of people with insufficient heart valve function in the future and prolong the patients' lives.

The human heart is a high-performance machine: over the course of a person's life, it beats almost three billion times, pumping around 200 million litres of blood through the body. Enormous stresses that can sometimes lead to life-threatening signs of wear and tear. If a heart valve gets out of step, patients usually get artificial-mechanical or biological valves as a replacement. However, mechanical solutions imply patients to take blood-thinning medication for the rest of their lives. In addition, there may be audible closing noises. For example, almost a quarter of patients with mechanical heart valves complain of sleep disturbances. Biological heart valves, on the other hand, such as those made from animal tissue, require a great deal of manual work and have a shorter lifetime.

Potential of weaving for medical products demonstrated
For this reason, Graduate Engineer Mathis Bruns at the Institute for Textile Machinery and High-Performance Textile Materials Technology (ITM) at the TU Dresden is researching an implant alternative made of fabric. As part of a research project that also involved heart surgeons from the Dresden Heart Centre and the University Hospital in Würzburg, Mr. Bruns provided important findings for weaving an artificial heart valve in his diploma thesis. For his work entitled "Development of tubular structures with integrated valve function", Mathis Bruns has now received the Peter Dornier Foundation Prize 2022, endowed with 5,000 euros. In his laudation, Dr. Adnan Wahhoud, former head of the development department of air-jet weaving machines at DORNIER in Lindau, said: "With his work, the winner of the award demonstrates very clearly the potential of weaving technology to produce fabrics of complex form, geometry and structure with the aim of prolonging and improving people's lives." The award-winning thesis enriches research into three-dimensional tissues for use in medicine.

Weaving replacement heart valves without seams
"A particular advantage of our approach is the integral production method", says foundation prize winner Mathis Bruns. “The geometry and function of a heart valve is that complex that woven heart valves could not be produced in this form previously. Through the combined use of a rigid rapier weaving machine with bobbin shield and a Jacquard machine, it is possible to weave the replacement heart valve in such a way that it no longer has be sewn together. Even the tubular structures for the blood vessels and the integrated valve function are ‘all of one piece’. Seams are always a weak point in textile medical products," Mr. Bruns adds. “Another advantage of the woven heart valve is the possibility to insert it by the help of minimally invasive surgery. Hence, the folded valve which is about the size of a tea light is to be pushed with a catheter via the bloodstream to the target position in the heart and unfolded there. The patient's chest and heart would then no longer have to be cut open”, explains prize winner Mr. Bruns.

Textile structure is similar to human tissue
A wide variety of medical products have always been produced on DORNIER weaving machines. Customers use them to produce fabrics for bandages, prostheses, blood filters and orthoses among other things. For Mathis Bruns, it is only evident that implants such as heart valves will more and more be woven on the machines from Lindau in the future. "Textile tissue is very similar to human tissue," he says. The human body consists largely of thread-like materials, just as a textile fabric is made up of thousands of individual threads. "Muscle fibres convey force impulses, nerve tracts send stimuli such as pain and brain cells convey information via thread-like dendrites and axons." Because of their ‘thread-like properties’, woven implants are therefore particularly suitable for medical applications.

C.L.A.S.S. Eco Hub has selected the winner of C.L.A.S.S. ICON Award 2022, the annual contest with the aim of sponsoring a visionary creative who is able to combine design, responsibility, innovation and communication. Receiving the third edition of the eye-turning award is FROY Club, an experimental and responsible fashion project born in 2018 by designer Arman Avetikyan.

Froy is rooted in Armenian culture and by mixes high quality materials and yarns. Working with a sustainable ethic, Froy reconciles traditional know how and innovative techniques to create hybrid, versatile and speaking surfaces. The brand uses Italian certified fabrics and yarns that meet European standards, selecting natural materials to create high-quality products with a circular life. Froy also chooses GOTS, FSC and OEKO-TEX certified fabrics and yarns in order to support a clear production chain.

By receiving two thousand euros for sourcing purposes, smart consultancy support and communication aid from the C.L.A.S.S. team, plus assistance to the brand in commercial activities, a physical stand in the WHITE Show and a dedicated brand page on Renoon powered by C.L.A.S.S. partners; Froy will have the opportunity to upgrade its efforts in terms of responsibility and innovation, while sharing its conscious vision and values with a wider audience. Moreover, the Italian brand with Armenian roots will become part of the C.L.A.S.S. ICON community, joining past winners such as the high fashion Italian designer Gilberto Calzolari and the Portuguese streetwear brand Duarte

ANDRITZ will be presenting its innovative nonwovens production solutions at CINTE 2022 in Shanghai, China (September 6–8). ANDRITZ will show its broad product portfolio covering state-of-the-art nonwovens and textile production technologies such as air-through bonding, airlay, needlepunch, spunlace, spunbond, wetlaid/WetlaceTM, converting, textile finishing, recycling, and natural fiber processing.

SUSTAINABILITY IS KEY
ANDRITZ supports nonwovens producers in the move to sustainability with the aim of reducing or eliminating plastic components while maintaining the high quality of the desired product properties. This applies to all types of sustainable wipes, such as flushable, biodegradable, bio-sourced, carded pulp or standard carded wipes. The latest development in this field is the ANDRITZ neXline wetlace CP line, which integrates the carded-pulp (CP) process. This is a fully engineered production line combining the benefits of drylaid and wetlaid technologies to produce a new generation of biodegradable wipes.

NEXLINE WETLAID AXCESS TARGETS SMALLER AND MEDIUM PRODUCTION VOLUMES
The neXline wetlaid aXcess targets smaller and medium production volumes and has been devised for new and existing lines. The compact line provides an entrance to the growing wetlaid market, with a variety of final applications and options.

ANDRITZ AXCESS DEVELOPED FOR MEDIUM CAPACITIES IN WUXI, CHINA
The aXcess range was specially developed at ANDRITZ (China) Ltd. Wuxi Branch to handle medium capacities. The facility in Wuxi has an experienced platform for production and service specially geared to serve the Asian nonwovens industry. It designs and manufactures cutting-edge lines to complement the ANDRITZ aXcess product range, which includes complete lines and individual machines for air-through bonding, needlepunch and spunlace processes. With the aXcess range, ANDRITZ has developed a hybrid line combining European and Chinese machines, which is the ideal combination to obtain the best added value from each component in the line and be very flexible to accommodate different business cases.

The service organization was set up to provide prompt delivery and excellent customer support, even during the COVID-19 pandemic. A team of technicians and process experts can be deployed quickly to customer sites requiring full-range assistance. The ANDRITZ facilities include a roll service center with state of-the-art grinding equipment and a test stand for various types of rolls.

In addition, our aXcess range manufactured in Europe also offers technologies for spunlaid and wetlaid processes. Increasing production speeds and widths, compact and reliable design, and affordable investment costs are what customers look for in a competitive market environment. To meet these requirements ideally, we recently enhanced our nonwoven calender and dryer ranges.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.