From the Sector

• Revenue up 5.7 percent year-on-year to EUR 658.4 million
• EBITDA more than doubles year-on-year to EUR 71.4 million
• Free cash flow of EUR 87.3 million (compared with minus EUR 132.3 million in the first quarter of 2023) and thereby positive for the third consecutive quarter
• Performance program shows positive effect on revenue, EDITDA, and free cash flow
• Lenzing confirms EBITDA guidance for 2024

The Lenzing Group, a leading supplier of regenerated cellulose for the textile and nonwovens industries, recorded a further improvement in fiber sales volumes in the first quarter of 2024. An expected recovery in markets relevant for Lenzing has to date failed to materialize. Fiber prices remained at a low level. Although the costs of raw materials and energy continued to decrease, they remained higher than in the pre-crisis 2019 year.

Outlook
Even though the IMF has upgraded its growth forecast for 2024 from 3.1 percent to 3.2 percent, a number of risks remain for the global economy: potential geopolitical shocks, persistently higher inflation and key interest rates, as well as market risks emanating from the Chinese real estate market are currently considered to be the most relevant.

General inflation and falling incomes in real terms are continuing to exert a negative impact on consumer sentiment. A recovery in the consumer clothing market, which is important for Lenzing, will also depend on a further normalization of stock levels.

The currency environment is expected to remain volatile in regions relevant to Lenzing.

In the trend-setting market for cotton, a stable price trend is expected for the 2023/2024 harvest season.

Earnings visibility remains limited overall.

Revenue and earnings in the first quarter exceeded Lenzing’s expectations, despite the persistently difficult market. Lenzing is ahead of schedule with the implementation of its performance program. By appointing a separate Managing Board member, the projects identified to date are to be implemented even more rapidly, and new potentials are to be leveraged. Lenzing expects that these measures will increasingly contribute to further earnings improvement over the coming quarters compared to the first quarter of 2024.

Taking the aforementioned factors into consideration, the Lenzing Group confirms its guidance for the 2024 financial year of year-on-year higher EBITDA.

In structural terms, Lenzing continues to anticipate growth in demand for environmentally responsible fibers for the textile and clothing industry as well as the hygiene and medical sectors. As a consequence, Lenzing is well positioned with its “Better Growth” strategy and plans to continue driving growth with specialty fibers as well as its sustainability goals, including the transformation from a linear to a circular economy model.

Major developments:

• Currency-neutral sales up 8% driven by growth in all regions except North America
• Double-digit DTC growth reflects strong adidas sell-through
• Gross margin improves 6.4pp to 51.2%, reflecting healthier inventory levels, reduced discounting, lower sourcing costs and a more favorable business mix
• Operating profit of € 336 million compared to € 60 million in the prior-year period
• Inventories down more than € 1.2 billion versus the prior year to € 4.4 billion
• Top- and bottom-line guidance upgraded on April 16 due to successful start to the year

Full-year outlook
adidas expects revenues to increase at a mid- to high-single-digit rate in 2024
On April 16, adidas upgraded its full-year financial guidance as a result of the better-than-expected performance in the first quarter. adidas now expects currency-neutral revenues to increase at a mid- to high-single-digit rate in 2024 (previously: increase at a mid-single-digit rate). Within this guidance, it is assumed that the remaining Yeezy inventory will be sold on average at cost, resulting in sales of around € 200 million throughout the remainder of the year. This corresponds to a projected total amount of Yeezy-related sales of around € 350 million in FY 2024 (previously: around € 250 million), of which around € 150 million were generated in the first quarter. For its underlying business, adidas remains focused on scaling its successful franchises, introducing new ones, and leveraging its significantly better, broader, and deeper product range. Improved retailer relationships, more impactful marketing initiatives, and the company’s activities around major sports events are also expected to contribute to sales increases throughout 2024.

Outlook impacted by significant currency headwinds
Unfavorable currency effects are projected to weigh significantly on the company’s profitability in 2024. They are expected to continue to adversely impact both reported revenues and the gross margin development in the remainder of the year.

Operating profit of around € 700 million projected
Following the better-than-expected performance in the first quarter, the company also increased its full-year profit guidance on April 16. The company’s operating profit is now expected to reach a level of around € 700 million (previously: to reach a level of around € 500 million). The improved bottom-line guidance includes a contribution of around € 50 million from Yeezy (previously: no Yeezy contribution) related to the drop in Q1. The sale of the remaining Yeezy inventory is assumed to result in no further profit contribution during the remainder of the year.

• CARBIOS Group’s solid financial structure: cash position of €192 million on December 31, 2023
• Construction progress of world’s first PET biorecycling plant in France: in line with delivery targets for customers in 2026
• Licensing: international sales teams deployed in more than ten countries, with several partnerships feasible for 2024

CARBIOS reported its operating and financial results for the financial year 2023. The financial statements as of December 31, 2023, were approved by the Company’s Board of Directors at their meeting on April 10, 2024.

2023 Financial highlights
The consolidated financial statements of the Company as of December 31, 2023, are presented in accordance with International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) and adopted by the European Union.

For 2022 and 2023, these IFRS consolidated financial statements include the financial statements of CARBIOS, the parent company, and the financial statements of its fully integrated subsidiaries Carbiolice and CARBIOS 54. The group formed by CARBIOS, Carbiolice and CARBIOS 54 is hereinafter referred to as the “Group”.

These IFRS financial statements for the Group have been prepared to provide high quality information in line with that of similar companies and based on international standards.

Outlook
Given the progress made by the Group during 2023 and the success of the financing operation closed in July 2023 as well as the received grants, CARBIOS confirms its operating targets and the provisional calendar of the industrial and commercial deployment of its PET biorecycling technology.
2024  • Construction of the Longlaville plant further to permits obtained in October 2023
2024  • Recruitment of plant operations team and training at demonstration facility
2026  • First significant deliveries to clients

Alongside this project, CARBIOS aims to sign its first licensing contracts for its PET biorecycling technology in 2024.

Autoneum significantly improved revenue in local currencies by 34.8% in 2023 compared to the previous year, supported by inorganic growth and a positive market environment. Consolidated in Swiss francs, revenue increased by 27.6% to CHF 2 302.3 million. The acquisition of Borgers Automotive already made a positive contribution to earnings and value in the first year and Business Group North America achieved a turnaround. EBIT adjusted for one-time effects more than doubled year-on-year to CHF 99.2 million and, with an EBIT margin of 4.3%, was at the upper end of the guidance. Net profit for the full year 2023 increased by an impressive CHF 50.2 million to CHF 61.1 million. Based on the positive net results, the Board of Directors is proposing a dividend of CHF 2.50 per share.

Outlook
According to forecasts, worldwide automobile production will be somewhat restrained in 2024 and may even decline slightly compared with 2023. Based on these market forecasts¹, Autoneum expects revenue in 2024 of CHF 2.3 billion to 2.5 billion. The Company anticipates an EBIT margin of 4.5–5.5% and free cash flow in the high upper double-digit million range for 2024.

¹ Source: S&P Global Light Vehicle Production Forecast of February 16, 2024.

• Sales of CHF 1 418.6 million in the 2023 financial year
• Order intake of CHF 541.8 million in the 2023 financial year; order backlog of around CHF 650 million as of December 31, 2023
• EBIT margin of 7.2%
• “Next Level” performance program on track
• Proposed dividend of CHF 3.00 per share
• Outlook 2024 with sales of around CHF 1 billion

The Rieter Group closed the 2023 financial year with slightly lower sales of CHF 1 418.6 million (2022: CHF 1 510.9 million), down 6% on the previous year. In line with expectations, the order intake of CHF 541.8 million was considerably below the prior year period (2022: CHF 1 157.3 million). In a challenging business environment, Rieter generated an EBIT margin of 7.2%. Implementation of the “Next Level” performance program to increase profitability is proceeding according to plan.

Outlook 2024
Markets remain under pressure from the economic slowdown, high inflation rates and noticeably dampened consumer sentiment. Customers are reluctant to place orders due to financing challenges. The first signs of a recovery in the 2024 financial year have emerged in the key markets of China and India. Rieter expects demand to increase in the coming months.
For the full year 2024, Rieter anticipates sales in the region of CHF 1 billion and a positive EBIT margin of up to 4%.

• Revenues: 477.6 million euros (-6%)
• EBITDA before non-recurring items: 79.0 million euros (-15%)
• Net income: 32.6 million euros (-26%)
• Free cash flow before non-recurring items: 45.3 million euros
• Dividend: €0.36 per share

Lectra’s Board of Directors, chaired by Daniel Harari, reviewed the consolidated financial statements for the fiscal year 2023. Audit procedures have been performed by the Statutory Auditors.

Currency changes between 2022 and 2023 mechanically decreased revenues and EBITDA before non-recurring items by 3.9 million euros (-3%) and 1.7 million euros (-8%) respectively in Q4, and by 11.2 million euros (-2%) and 4.8 million euros (-6%) respectively in the year, at actual exchange rates compared to like-for-like figures.

OUTLOOK
While the 2023 full-year results were affected by the adverse environment, they also attest to the substantial improvement in the fundamentals of the Group's business model, which will have a positive impact on 2024 results. Persistent macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties could nevertheless continue to weigh on investment decisions by the Group's customers.

While the most recent indicators seem to suggest that the situation is unlikely to deteriorate further, the timing and magnitude of a rebound in new system orders remain uncertain.

Outlook for 2024
To facilitate analysis, the accounts of Lectra excluding the Launchmetrics acquisition ("Lectra 2023 Scope") will be analysed separately from the Launchmetrics accounts in 2024.

The Group has based its 2024 objectives on the exchange rates in effect on December 29, 2023, in particular $1.10/€1. When converting 2023 results using the exchange rates retained for 2024, 2023 revenues are mechanically reduced by 4.7 million euros (to 472.9 million euros) and 2023 EBITDA before non-recurring items is reduced by 2.2 million euros (to 76.8 million euros). Thus, for the Lectra 2023 Scope, the comparisons between 2024 and 2023 printed below are based on constant exchange rates.

At this early stage of 2024, continuing low visibility regarding orders and revenues from new systems makes it impossible to predict the actual timing and scale of the future rebound in this area. On the other hand, visibility is high for recurring revenues, which accounted for 68% of total revenues in 2023 and will continue to grow in 2024.

In light of the above, Lectra has set as its objective for 2024, for the Lectra 2023 Scope, to achieve revenues in the range of 480 to 530 million euros (+2% to +12%) and EBITDA before non-recurring items in the range of 85 to 107 million euros (+10% to +40%).

The low end of the revenues range is based on the absence of a rebound in new systems orders, which would remain stable in 2024 relative to 2023, with a 6% decline in revenues from perpetual software licenses, equipment and accompanying software and non-recurring services, as the order backlog was lower on December 31, 2023 than a year before.

The high end of the revenues range reflects a gradual rebound in new systems orders, which at year-end 2024 would be back to year-end 2022 level.
 
In addition, Launchmetrics revenues (for the consolidation period from January 23 to December 31) are projected to be in the range of 42 to 46 million euros, with an EBITDA margin before non-recurring items of more than 15% (assuming an exchange rate of $1.10/€1).

• Revenue of US$3.9B, a decline of 1% QoQ and 20% YoY
• EBITDA of US$324M, an increase of 1% QoQ and a decrease of 37% YoY
• Operating cash flows of US$410M
• Net Operating Debt to Equity of 0.97x
• EPS of THB 0.00

Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL) reported stable third-quarter earnings as the company’s management focuses on conserving cash and improving competitiveness to bolster performance in a continued period of weakness in the global chemical industry.

Indorama Ventures achieved EBITDA of $324 million in 3Q23, an increase of 1% QoQ and a decline of 37% YoY, impacted by a weak economic environment, geopolitical tensions, and continued post-pandemic disruptions in global markets. Sales volumes dropped 5% from a year ago to 3.6 million tons as China recovers from the pandemic more slowly than expected and an extended period of destocking in the manufacturing and chemical sectors continues to normalize from unprecedented levels last year.

Management continues to focus on conserving cash, realizing efficiency improvements, and optimizing the company’s operational footprint to boost profitability. These efforts resulted in positive operating cash flow of US$410 million in the quarter, positive free cash flow of $79 million year to date, and room for further reductions in working capital going forward. The company’s AA- rating was maintained by TRIS in the quarter, with a stable outlook. 

The company expects the operating environment to improve in 2024 as customer destocking continues to ease across all three of Indorama Ventures’ segments. The ramp up of PET and fibers expansion projects operations in India and the U.S. will also contribute to increased volumes.  

Combined PET posted EBITDA of $146 million, a 25% decline QoQ, amid historically low benchmark PET margins, increased feedstock prices in Western markets, and lingering effects of destocking. Integrated Oxides and Derivatives (IOD) segment posted a 27% rise in EBITDA to $119 million QoQ, supported by strong MTBE margins in the Integrated Intermediates business. The Integrated Downstream portfolio’s profitability was impacted by destocking, inflationary pressures, and margin pressure from imports. Fibers segment achieved a 140% increase in EBITDA to $48 million QoQ as Lifestyle volumes grew in key markets in Asia, and the Mobility and Hygiene verticals benefited from management’s focus on optimizing operations and refocusing the organization. 
 

INDA, the Association of the Nonwoven Fabrics Industry, has released a new report, North American Nonwovens Industry Outlook, 2022-2027. This report is the twelfth edition detailing demand data for 2017 through 2022, with forecasts to 2027 and provides analysis across end-use markets through 2027.

It includes:

• Economic and population drivers contributing to market growth over the next 5 years for markets in the U.S., Mexico, and Canada.
• Disposable, Filtration, Wipes, Medical and Other applications.
• Long-Life durable sectors for Transportation, Building and Construction, Furnishings, Geo and Agro Textiles, and Apparel.
• Key drivers for the demand models and reasons for market upsets like the COVID pandemic.
• A summary of historical and future trends that will affect the nonwovens market.

The report provides analysis across all nonwoven end-use markets, providing a comprehensive and accurate view of the total North American nonwovens industry. INDA redesigned this report to support strategic business planning and decision-making. The projections in the report were made by analyzing current market trends and drivers to highlight the market potential in terms of dollar value, units, and volume in both square meters and tonnage.

The new North American Nonwovens Industry Outlook report is available at 6,000.00 $, the discounted member price is 4,500.00

Highlights

• Net sales in the third quarter of 2023 were down by -20.3% organically versus a record Q3 2022 as expected due to -15% lower volumes (€-512 million) in a weaker macro environment and -5% lower prices (€-188 million) in a context of lower raw material costs and energy prices. On a sequential basis, net sales were down -11% versus Q2. The volume reduction was broad based across regions and businesses.
• Structural cost savings for the first nine months of 2023 amounted to €63 million, bringing the total savings since 2019 to €530 million.
• Underlying EBITDA of €702 million in Q3 2023 was down by -18.5% organically compared to a record Q3 2022 driven by lower volumes, partly offset by €36 million in positive net pricing and €41 million in lower fixed costs. Nine months EBITDA at €2,331 million is only down -1% organically versus 2022, a clear indication that strong historic pricing and cost discipline momentum is being maintained.
• The underlying EBITDA margin of 25.6% in Q3 2023 was sustained relative to Q3 2022 despite lower volumes, while nine months EBITDA margin of 25.9% is +1.3pp higher, mainly as a result of positive net pricing and cost discipline.
• Underlying Net Profit was €340 million in Q3 2023 compared to €509 million in Q3 2022.
• Free Cash Flow of €346 million in Q3 2023 resulted in a nine-month 2023 total of €1,027 million and a FCF conversion ratio of 39.4%.
• ROCE was 15.2%, broadly in line with Q3 2022.
• Continued strengthening of the balance sheet with underlying net debt at €2.8 billion, which translated to a historic low leverage of 0.9x.
• As explained on page 2, an interim dividend of €1.62 gross per share has been validated by the Board of Directors, in line with historical interim dividend policy to be paid by Solvay SA on January 17, 2024.

2023 Outlook
Given the current volume momentum, Solvay reconfirm their full year guidance, at the lower end of the prior EBITDA guidance range.

• Revenue of EUR 1.87 bn and EBITDA of EUR 219.1 mn in the first three quarters of 2023
• Positive free cash flow of EUR 27.3 mn in the third quarter
• Implementation of performance program focusing on positive free cash flow, strengthened sales and margin growth and sustainable cost excellence
• Modernization and conversion of Indonesian site successfully completed – EU Ecolabel received

The anticipated recovery in markets relevant for the Lenzing Group has to date failed to materialize. The continued sharp increase in raw material and energy costs on the one hand and very subdued demand on the other had a negative impact on Lenzing’s business trends as well as on industry as a whole during the reporting period.

Revenue in the first three quarters of 2023 decreased by 5.3 percent year-on-year to EUR 1.87 bn. This reduction was primarily due to lower fiber revenues, while pulp revenues were up. The earnings trend was mainly influenced by the market environment. As a consequence, earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) in the reporting period decreased by 16.7 percent year-on-year to EUR 219.1 mn. The net result after tax amounted to minus EUR 96.7 mn (compared with EUR 74.9 mn in the first three quarters of 2022), while earnings per share amounted to minus EUR 4.90 (compared with EUR 2.16 in the first three quarters of 2022).

Outlook
According to the IMF, a full return of the global economy to pre-pandemic growth rates appears increasingly out of reach in the coming quarters. In addition to the consequences of the pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine, growth is also being influenced by restrictive monetary policy and extreme weather events. The consequences of the renewed military confrontation in the Middle East are not yet foreseeable. Overall, the IMF warns of greater risks to global financial stability, and expects the growth rate to decrease to 3 percent this year and to 2.9 percent next year.

The currency environment is expected to remain volatile in the regions of relevance to Lenzing.

The general market environment is continuing to weigh on the consumer climate and on sentiment in the industries relevant to Lenzing.

In the trend-setting market for cotton, the current 2023/24 crop season is emerging as a further 1.7 mn tonnes of inventory build-up, following 1.8 mn tonnes of inventory build-up in the previous season.

Earnings visibility remains severely limited overall.

Lenzing is fully on track with the implementation of the reorganization and cost reduction program and on this basis is implementing a comprehensive performance program focused on positive free cash flow, strengthened sales and margin growth as well as sustainable cost excellence. The overarching goal is to position Lenzing even more strongly and to further increase its crisis resilience.

In structural terms, Lenzing continues to anticipate growth in demand for environmentally responsible fibers for the textile and clothing industry as well as the hygiene and medical sectors. As a consequence, Lenzing is very well positioned with its “Better Growth” strategy and plans to continue driving growth with specialty fibers as well as its sustainability goals, including the trans-formation from a linear to a circular economy model.

The successful implementation of the key projects in Thailand and Brazil as well as the investment projects in China and Indonesia will further strengthen Lenzing’s positioning in this respect.

Taking the aforementioned factors into consideration, the Lenzing Group continues to expect that EBITDA for the 2023 financial year will lie in a range between EUR 270 mn and EUR 330 mn.