From the Sector

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

• An innovative European project to process and recycle plastic textile waste
• A partnership to reach the objectives set by the European Union in reducing CO2 emissions by 2030
• A unique consortium rallying 16 public and private European organizations working together for more circular economy

Carbios joined WhiteCycle, a project coordinated by Michelin, which was launched in July 2022. Its main goal is to develop a circular solution to convert complex^[1] waste containing textile made of plastic into products with high added value. Co-funded by Horizon Europe, the European Union’s research and innovation program, this unprecedented public/private European partnership includes 16 organizations and will run for four years.
 
WhiteCycle envisions that by 2030 the uptake and deployment of its circular solution will lead to the annual recycling of more than 2 million tons of the third most widely used plastic in the world, PET^[2]. This project should prevent landfilling or incineration of more than 1.8 million tons of that plastic each year. Also, it should enable reduction of CO2 emissions by around 2 million tons.
 
Complex waste containing textile (PET) from end-of-life tyres, hoses and multilayer clothes are currently difficult to recycle, but could soon become recyclable thanks to the project outcomes. Raw material from PET plastic waste could go back into creation of high-performance products, through a circular and viable value chain.
 
Public and private European organizations are combining their scientific and industrial expertises:

• industrial partners (Michelin, Mandals, KORDSA);
• cross-sector partnership (Inditex)
• waste management companies (Synergies TLC, ESTATO);
• intelligent monitoring systems for sorting (IRIS);
• biological recycling SME (Carbios);
• product life cycle analysis company (IPOINT);
• university, expert in FAIR data management (HVL);
• universities, research and technology organizations (PPRIME – Université de Poitiers/CNRS, DITF, IFTH, ERASME);
• industry cluster (Axelera);
• project management consulting company (Dynergie).

 
The consortium will develop new processes required throughout the industrial value chain:

• Innovative sorting technologies, to enable significant increase of the PET plastic content of complex waste streams in order to better process them;
• A pre-treatment for recuperated PET plastic content, followed by a breakthrough recycling enzyme-based process to decompose it into pure monomers in a sustainable way;
• Repolymerization of the recycled monomers into like new plastic;
• Fabrication and quality verification of the new products made of recycled plastic materials

 
WhiteCycle has a global budget of nearly 9.6 million euros and receives European funding in the amount of nearly 7.1 million euros. The consortium’s partners are based in five countries (France, Spain, Germany, Norway and Turkey). Coordinated by Michelin, it has an effective governance system involving a steering committee, an advisory board and a technical support committee.

^[1] Complex waste: multi materials waste (Rubber goods composites and multi-layer textile)
^[2] PET: Polyethylene terephthalate

North Carolina textile executives spanning the fiber, yarn, fabric, and finished product textile industries participated in a roundtable discussion with Rep. Kathy Manning (D-NC), at which they discussed the innovative achievements and competitiveness of the domestic industry and outlined priority issues in Washington that impact their daily operations.

The roundtable discussion, hosted by Unifi Inc. and sponsored by the National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO), was held at Unifi’s headquarters in Greensboro, North Carolina.

North Carolina is the second largest state employer of textile-related jobs, employing more than 30,000 jobs in 2021, according to U.S. government data. The state’s $2.7 billion in textile-related exports leads the nation, according to U.S. government data.

Congresswoman Manning’s visit comes at a pivotal time for the U.S. textile supply chain, which produced $65.2 billion in output in 2021 and employed nearly 535,000 workers. The industry has been at the forefront of domestic manufacturing of over 1 billion personal protective equipment (PPE) items during the COVID-19 pandemic.

During the roundtable, North Carolina executives showcased the industry’s important contribution to the state and the U.S. economy as well as its advanced sustainability initiatives, while outlining critical policies, such as the importance of Buy American and Berry Amendment government procurement policies, maintaining strong rules of origins in free trade agreements, supporting a domestic PPE production sector, and the need to address larger systemic trade issues with China.

“In North Carolina, the textile industry is woven into the very fabric of our state and economy, with more than 33,000 workers employed in over 600 textile manufacturing facilities across the state. In Congress, I am committed to supporting our homegrown industry by making PPE in America, protecting the yarn forward rule of origin in our trade agreements, and cracking down on China’s unfair trade practices. I am thrilled to engage with industry leaders in my district, as we discuss ways to grow the U.S. textile industry and the critical role that textile manufacturers play in our local, state, and national economy,” said Congresswoman Kathy Manning.

• Collaboration with Red Points addresses consumers’ increasing expectations on transparency and highlights Lenzing’s commitment to trademark protection
• Protects interest of Lenzing customer and partners who are making real efforts to enhance the transparency of their value chains
• Builds upon Lenzing’s overall brand protection efforts that verify the authenticity of fibers up to the end products

Lenzing Group, a global producer of wood-based specialty fibers, has announced a partnership with Red Points, a company in online IP infringement detection and removal, to strengthen Lenzing’s existing brand protection efforts globally and enable round-the-clock brand monitoring services. As Lenzing’s textile brands TENCEL™, LENZING™, ECOVERO™, as well as nonwovens brand VEOCEL™ continue to generate widespread demand from industry partners and customers worldwide, it is becoming increasingly important to protect the company’s trademarks and provide full visibility into the brands’ presence online.

Protecting the interest of Lenzing’s partners and consumers
Red Points provides the ideal technology solution to help Lenzing monitor and remove unauthorized use of its trademarks and counterfeits online. The technology works by using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to automatically detect intellectual property infringements of Lenzing’ trademarks with high accuracy and efficiency.

Brand protection is just one of Lenzing’s ongoing proactive measures aimed at enhancing transparency in the supply chain and protecting the interest of Lenzing’s partners by ensuring they are purchasing genuine Lenzing fibers which meet their high standards.

In 2018, Lenzing launched the Lenzing E-Branding Service which allows Lenzing’s customers, retailers and brand partners to effectively use trademarks in their marketing materials. The platform has been welcomed by partners globally as it continues to deliver value to the fashion, textile and nonwoven sectors by facilitating the traceability of Lenzing’s fibers and enabling customers to promote them effectively.

• Exceptional achievement of research work on the use of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy for understanding PET depolymerization enzymes

Carbios (Euronext Growth Paris: ALCRB), a pioneer in the development of enzymatic solutions dedicated to the end-of-life of plastic and textile polymers, announces the publication of an article entitled “An NMR look at an engineered PET depolymerase” in the scientific journal Biophysical Journal.

The article describes the use of Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectroscopy to study the thermal stability of PET depolymerization enzymes and the mechanism of adsorption of the enzyme on the polymer. This innovative approach, which required months of development, is a world first and opens up new ways of improving these enzymes. This publication confirms Carbios' international lead in the development of the most efficient enzymes for the depolymerization and recycling of plastics.

Prof. Alain Marty, Chief Scientific Officer of Carbios and co-author of the article, explains: “ Nearly 25 researchers are currently working on our unique enzymatic technology. It is based on academic collaborations with the world's leading experts in their fields..”

Dr. Guy Lippens, CNRS Research Director and co-author of the artcle, adds: “Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) is an extraordinary biophysical technique for visualizing an enzyme directly in solution. Our study is the first to use NMR as a complementary technique to crystallography and molecular modeling to observe a PETase. This gives new perspectives to better understand the functioning of these enzymes and it makes it possible to imagine new ways of improving these enzymes. ”

• China Penalty Tariffs on Finished Textiles & Apparel Give U.S. Companies a Chance to Compete and are a Powerful Trade-Negotiation Tool, NCTO Tells U.S. International Trade Commission

Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished Chinese textile and apparel imports give American manufacturers a chance to compete and provide trade officials with an essential trade negotiation tool, the National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) told a key government panel today in a formal written submission. Removing them, the association said, would reward China, put U.S. manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage and do nothing to reduce inflation.

Those were among the key points outlined by NCTO President and CEO Kim Glas in a written testimony submitted to the U.S. International Trade Commission during three days of hearings on the economic impact of Section 301 China tariffs and Section 232 steel tariffs on U.S. industries.

The 301 penalty tariffs should be maintained “absent substantive improvements in China’s pervasive, predatory trade practices,” Glas said in her testimony.  China’s illegal actions “have put U.S. companies at a serious disadvantage, and tariffs give American manufacturers a chance to compete.” Glas noted that U.S. trade officials have “stressed that the penalty tariffs also create leverage and are a ‘significant tool’ in ongoing negotiations with China.”
 
While some advocates for lifting the tariffs point to concerns about inflation, Glas said, “canceling these penalty duties would do little to ease Americans’ inflationary pains.” She also noted that “apparel prices out of China continue to hit rock bottom even with the Section 301 tariffs in place. As detailed in an economic study recently released by Werner International, U.S. import prices for apparel from China have dropped 25 percent since 2019 and 50 percent since 2011.”

Glas also warned that lifting the tariffs would have “a substantial negative ripple effect” on U.S. free-trade agreements, including undermining those with Western Hemisphere partners that have established shorter coproduction supply chains and serve other U.S. and regional interests.

The Section 301 tariffs were first imposed in 2018 in response to China’s persistent violations of intellectual property rules. By law, they are now under review.

Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL) announced that construction of an integrated PTA-PET plant in Corpus Christi, Texas, will resume in August this year. Corpus Christi Polymers LLC (CCP), a partnership between three companies, is expected to begin production in 2025 and ensure continued cost-competitive production to support the growth of IVL’s global PET operations into the next decade.

CCP was formed in 2018 as a joint venture between Indorama Ventures Corpus Christi Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of Indorama Ventures; DAK Americas LLC, a subsidiary of Alpek S.A.B. de C.V.; and APG Polytech USA Holdings, Inc, a subsidiary of Far Eastern New Century, following the purchase of a partially constructed facility of M&G Resins in Corpus Christi. Each partner will procure its own raw materials and receive one third of the PTA and PET produced at the facility to sell and distribute independently.

Construction of the plant is resuming following a period of pandemic-related disruptions. Through the pandemic, the partners firmly resolved to continue planning amid continued robust demand for PET packaging and the need for shorter supply chains. As the impact of the pandemic eased in 2022, the management team was strengthened in preparation for the resumption in activities.

CCP is expected to be the largest vertically integrated PTA-PET production plant in the Americas, and IVL’s biggest greenfields project in the U.S. since the development of the AlphaPet production facility at Decatur, Alabama in 2009. The new Texas facility is a significant addition to IVL’s leading global footprint, and will expand its coverage to customers across the U.S. The plant’s vertical integration optimizes PTA-PET production and, together with the availability of raw materials Paraxylene and Mono Ethylene Glycol in the U.S., ensures long-term competitive-cost supply for IVL’s locally integrated polyester value chain.

The facility will have nominal annual capacities of 1.1 million metric tons of PET and 1.3 million metric tons of PTA, shared between the partners. It will employ three state-of-the-art technologies: PTA: IntegRex®, PET melt: Invista, and PET solid state: Easy Up (HCIRR – Horizontal Continuous slightly Inclined Rotary Reactor).

CCP is adding to its leadership team to prepare for the new growth opportunities. Mr Russell Wilson will leave his role with IVL as Head of Manufacturing Americas, Combined PET, to take up a new role as Chief Executive Officer of CCP from 18 July. He brings 30 years of Aromatics and PET leadership experience including prior roles with Amoco and BP before joining IVL. Mr Todd Hogue, IVL’s Global Head of EH&S, replaces Mr Wilson as IVL’s representative on CCP’s Board. Mr Michael Day joined CCP as Project Director in June and brings 34 years of construction leadership experience including senior roles with Bilfinger, KBR, and CB&I.  Mr Jeff Shea will assume the role of Chief Operating Officer on 18 July.  Mr Shea has been in the PET industry for the last 22 years and has managed PET sites for the last 17. 

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

Exhibiting companies can now register for A+A 2023! The world's leading trade fair and congress event for personal protection, occupational safety and health at work will take place in Düsseldorf from 24 to 27 October 2023.

Under the motto "People count", numerous exhibitors will present innovative solutions and concepts for safe and healthy working at A+A 2023. This time, the thematic umbrella of the international trade fair is formed by the megatrends of digitalisation and sustainability.

Decision-makers and experts will find cross-sector solutions and answers to the important questions surrounding a safe, healthy and sustainable workplace. From personal protective equipment (PPE), operational fire protection, environmental protection or disaster prevention to offers for ergonomic and healthy workplace design.

The focus will be on topics such as sustainability and the circular economy of products, digital services in the provision, care and storage of PPE, mobile working, exoskeletons (wearable robots) and wearables. Forums and side events as well as an innovative Start-up Zone complement the trade fair and set new, future-oriented impulses.

For more information and registration click here.

• The Borvida™ portfolio introduces sustainable base chemicals to Borealis’ range of product offering
• The range will initially be based on non-food waste biomass, and chemically-recycled waste; in the future it will also draw from atmospheric carbon capture
• The traceability of the content will be based on Mass Balance, which is ISCC PLUS certified
• This is the next step in an ambitious sustainability journey, which will see Borealis move away from traditional fossil-based feed

Borealis is strengthening its EverMinds™ circular product offering with Borvida™, a range of sustainable base chemicals.

The Borvida portfolio will offer base chemicals or cracker products (such as ethylene, propylene, butene and phenol) with ISCC Plus-certified sustainable content from Borealis sites in Finland, Sweden and Belgium. The move is part of Borealis’ broader commitment to a Future-Positive Revolution, in which the unrivalled benefits of base chemicals and polymers can be enjoyed at minimal impact to the planet.   

The portfolio will initially comprise Borvida B, from non-food waste biomass, and Borvida C, from chemically-recycled waste. In the future, the range will evolve to include Borvida A, sourced from atmospheric carbon capture. Borvida is complementary and is the building block to Bornewables™, a portfolio of polyolefins based on renewably-sourced second generation feedstocks, and Borcycle™, which offers circular polyolefins produced from mechanically- and chemically-recycled plastic waste.

Borealis produces a wide range of base chemicals for use in numerous industries based on various feedstock, such as naphtha, butane, propane and ethane. Through its olefin units (steam cracker and propane dehydrogenation), it converts these into the building blocks of the chemical industry: ethylene, propylene and C4 hydrocarbons (butylenes, ethyl tertiary-butyl ether (ETBE) and butadiene), and C5-6 hydrocarbons (pygas, phenol) among others.

The basis of the Borvida portfolio is Mass Balance, a Chain of Custody model that enables sustainable content to be tracked, traced, and verified through the entire value chain, offering sustainability-assured products from feedstock to end product. Using this model, circular alternatives can be offered in a cost-effective and environmentally-conscious way, which can be scaled up quickly without compromising on quality or efficiency.

Borvida can be used for a wide range of different polymer and chemical applications, also beyond polyolefins (PO). Non-PO polymers, such as polycarbonates, acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), super absorbant polymer (SAP) and other chemicals, are utilised for various end applications including coatings, plasticizers, adhesives, automotive, electronics, lubricants, detergents, appliances and sports equipment.

Together with key strategic partners, including Neste and Covestro, Borealis strives to provide a long-term solution in order to allow value-chain partners to meet their sustainability goals. Borvida will enable our customers to increase the sustainability of their products, keeping them ahead of forthcoming legislative changes, and meeting their customers’ demands for climate-conscious products.

Introduced on a smaller scale in early 2020, early renewable base chemicals customers include Covestro. “The use of alternative sustainable raw materials is one important pillar of our strategic ambition to become fully circular”, comments Frank Dörner, Managing Director Covestro Procurement Services GmbH & Co. KG. “The new product line is a good example for joint solutions, another strategic pillar, in order to establish new and reliable supply chains creating benefits for our customers.”