From the Sector

Avgol®, a manufacturer of high-performance nonwoven fabric solutions, will use this month’s FILTECH exhibition in Germany to showcase its latest developments in using Algaeing™’s patented algae bio-based formulations for colorants and fibers.

Together with its sister companies from Indorama Ventures Limited (‘IVL’), Avgol will be presenting biotransformation capable fibers and meltblown for diversified end-use markets at the event from 14-16 February. Avgol will discuss with visitors how this new technology and the company’s biotransformative products can help businesses achieve their 2030 sustainability goals.

Algaeing’s technologies utilize various sustainably sourced, vertically farmed algae species to produce a wide range of appealing colors, many of which replicate the colors used in nonwoven fabrics today.

“The benefits of using an algae bio-source go far beyond the removal of chemically synthesized colorants, and include synergistic benefits of vastly reduced water consumption, chemical and fertilizer use, and carbon dioxide emissions,” says Avgol CEO Tommi Bjornman. “We will be demonstrating to FILTECH visitors that following an extensive development path, the fibers both absorb and retain a range of colors - such as vibrant greens and blues – and that we can even deliver a ‘heathered’ appearance for a more natural looking material, all without affecting the filtration, barrier quality or feel of the final product.”

Price Trends

• The nearby cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was down just 1% in December and closed the year at $1.84 per kilogram. A year earlier, the March contract closed at $2.30 per kilogram.  
  
  Cotton futures have been inverted for nearly three years because of supply chain disruptions that prevented normal on-time deliveries of international shipments. With the easing of container shortages and increased sailings, cotton futures are gradually reverting to the normal pattern in which contracts for forward delivery exceed nearby contracts by the cost of insurance, storage and interest between delivery months. The May and July 2023 contracts also finished 2022 at $1.84 per kilogram. In November, the May and July contracts were each several cents per kilogram lower than the March contract.
• The Eastern Market Indicator of prices for fine wool in Australia rose 9% in December to US$9.06 per kilogram. A year earlier, the EMI was $9.66. Australian analysts note that sheep for meat, cattle, and grain production, are competing alternatives for the use of land, and wool prices must continue upward if production is to be maintained in 2023.
• Prices quoted by the Indian Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of December converted to US$ fell 2% from a month earlier to an average of 74 cents per kilogram. The decline occurred entirely because of a weakening exchange rate. Prices in Rupee rose marginally. A year earlier, quoted prices averaged 84 cents per kilogram. The 16-percent decline year-on-year was caused about equally by a decline in quoted prices in Rupee and a weakening of the exchange rate.  
  
  The Indian jute industry is almost entirely focused on domestic demand, while half of total demand in Bangladesh comes from exports. Because of shortages of higher quality jute, export prices in Bangladesh are reportedly rising.
  (https://www.wgc.de/en/produkte/jute)
  
  India extended the anti-dumping duty at the end of December on jute and jute products imported from Bangladesh and Nepal for a period of five years. Bangladesh had urged the Indian government not to accept recommendations for extension, while the Indian industry was lobbying to ensure the duty remained in place. The duty rates range from approximately $6 per tonne at current exchange rates for low-quality fibres to $350 per tonne for finished products. The duty was originally imposed in January 2017 and was to expire at the end of 2022.
• Prices of silk in China rose 2% during December to US$28.0 per kilogram. Prices in yuan fell marginally during the month, but the RMB rose 3% against the USD. Prices of textile-grade silk in China were essentially unchanged at the end of 2022 compared with the end of 2021. However, prices closed 2022 about 40% above the average level pre-Covid. https://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-322.html and  https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/raw-silk-price-index/ .
• Coconut coir fibre in India quoted in US$ remained in a narrow range, averaging $0.205 per kilogram in December. Prices in Rupee have been stable, and changes in dollar prices reflect changes in the exchange rate.

 
Production
 
World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated as of early January at 32 million tonnes, approximately one million below production in 2021 and down 900,000 tonnes compared with the estimate in early December.

World cotton production is estimated at 24.2 million tonnes in 2022/23 (August to July), 700,000 tonnes lower than in 2021/22 (ICAC.org). World cotton production rose from 20 million tonnes to 25 million between 2020/21 and 2005/06, but there has been no growth in the nearly two decades since.  
 
World production of jute is forecast down nearly 400,000 tonnes in 2022 because of inadequate rainfall during the harvest period to permit proper retting. Production in India is estimated up by 100,000 tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, but production in Bangladesh fell by nearly one-third to just one million tonnes.
 
Production of coir, flax and sisal in 2022 are each estimated based on recent trends. Coir and flax have each been trending upward over the past decade, while world sisal production has been largely stable.

World wool production is forecast up 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee issued its third estimate of 2022/23 production in December, keeping the estimate unchanged from September. Above-average rainfall in Australia, and across most of the Southern Hemisphere, is resulting in better pasture conditions and a rebuilding of sheep numbers. Sheep numbers shorn in Australia are climbing from 67 million in 2020/21 to 72 million in 2021/22 and to an estimated 75 million in 2022/23. https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/wool-production-forecasts/  
 
According to the International Sericulture Commission (https://www.inserco.org/), silk production in China dropped from 170,000 tonnes in 2015 to 53,000 in 2020, with further declines estimated during Covid. Consequently, world silk production dropped from 202,000 tonnes in 2015 to 92,000 in 2020, and estimates of production during 2022 remain below 100,000 tonnes.

Toray Industries, Inc., announced that it has combined nanotechnology and fiber technology to create a cross-shaped polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) nanopore fiber that efficiently adsorbs pathogenic proteins in the blood.

The company developed this fiber by employing its PMMA hollow fiber membrane spinning technology. Changing the nanopore size on the surface and inside the fiber makes it possible to control the types of protein that this material adsorbs. This could become a fundamental blood purification technology for a range of protein adsorption columns that cause diseases.

The fiber’s cross-shaped cross section has a larger surface area than fibers with round ones. This provides much better contact between the blood and fiber and significantly enhances protein adsorption efficiency.

Toray is the only company to have commercialized a PMMA hollow-fiber membrane artificial kidney for dialysis treatment. Its new nanopore fiber benefits from PMMA’s good protein adsorption and biocompatibility. Using the structural formation of a stereocomplex from two PMMA types entangled spirally during the spinning process to form the fiber shape, Toray made it possible for the fiber itself to develop pores of several to dozens of nanometers. Depending on the pore size, large proteins cannot go inside the pores. If they are too small, they are not trapped. This enables selective adsorption of moderately sized proteins trapped in pores.

The fiber pore sizes are adjustable to the diameters of target proteins for a range of diseases. These include inflammatory proteins in sepsis, autoantibodies in autoimmune diseases, and causative proteins in chronic illnesses. Toray’s technology is thus fundamental to developing disease-causing protein adsorption columns to purify blood.

Toray’s cross-shaped cross section suppresses inter-fiber adhesion, increasing the surface area per volume and enabling highly efficient protein adsorption. For blood purification applications, higher capacity adsorption columns increase blood removal amounts from the body, which can be especially stressful for the elderly and children. The new fiber’s highly efficient protein adsorption should contribute to compact, high-performance protein adsorption columns.

The textile industry is the third largest consumer of plastics. While growth rates in the production of fibres and textiles are high, the circular economy has hardly become established in this segment. The EREMA Group is now intensifying development of recycling solutions for this application with their new fibres and textiles business unit. Currently, the focus is on PET fibre materials from fibre production and subsequent processing steps. Technologies for recycling mixed fibre textiles from textile collection sources are to follow in a follow-up project phase.

"With EREMA's VACUREMA® and INTAREMA® technology and PURE LOOP's ISEC evo technology, our company group already has an extensive range of machines for fibre and PET recycling applications. For ecologically and economically sound recycling, however, new technological solutions are needed to use the recycled fibres in higher-value end applications and to achieve a functioning circular economy," explains Wolfgang Hermann, Business Development Manager Application Fibres & Textiles, EREMA Group GmbH. The initial focus will be on PET, regarded as a key material for the production of synthetic fibres. The aim is to find recycling solutions that allow PET fibre materials to be prepared for reuse in PET fibre production processes. This is a significant step for the circular economy because PET fibres in textiles account for about two-thirds of the total volume of PET.

In this development work, the EREMA Group can build on existing know-how. Proven recycling technologies have been combined with a new IV optimiser. "This extends the residence time of the PET melt, which is particularly necessary in fibre recycling to efficiently remove spinning oils. Our recycling process also increases the IV value of the PET melt after extrusion back to the specific level that is essential for production of the fibre," explains Hermann. Waste PET fibre from production processes can therefore be further processed into rPET filament fibre, carpet yarn and staple fibre.

Fibre test centre with plant to test customers' materials
In order to accelerate development work, EREMA opened its own fibre test centre a few months ago, where a cross-company team is working on recycling solutions for fibre-to-fibre applications.

Electronically conductive fibres are already in use in smart textiles, but in a recently published research article, ionically conductive fibres have proven to be of increasing interest. The so-called ionofibres achieve higher flexibility and durability and match the type of conduction our body uses. In the future, they may be used for such items as textile batteries, textile displays, and textile muscles.

The research project is being carried out by doctoral student Claude Huniade at the University of Borås and is a track within a larger project, Weafing, the goal of which is to develop novel, unprecedented garments for haptic stimulation comprising flexible and wearable textile actuators and sensors.

In Claude Huniade’s project, the goal is to produce conductive yarns without conductive metals.
"My research is about producing electrically conductive textile fibres, and ultimately yarns, by coating non-metals sustainably on commercial yarns. The biggest challenge is in the balance between keeping the textile properties and adding the conductive feature," said Claude Huniade.

Currenty, the uniqueness of his research leans towards the strategies employed when coating. These strategies expand to the processes and the materials used.

Uses ionic liquid
One of the tracks he investigates is about a new kind of material as textile coating, ionic liquids in combination with commercial textile fibres. Just like salt water, they conduct electricity but without water. Ionic liquid is a more stable electrolyte than salt water as nothing evaporates.

"The processable aspect is an important requirement since textile manufacturing can be harsh on textile fibres, especially when upscaling their use. The fibres can also be manufactured into woven or knitted without damaging them mechanically while retaining their conductivity. Surprisingly, they were even smoother to process into fabrics than the commercial yarns they are made from," explained Claude Huniade.

Ionofibres could be used as sensors since ionic liquids are sensitive to their environment. For example, humidity change can be sensed by the ionofibers, but also any stretch or pressure they are subjected to.

"Ionofibres could truly shine when they are combined with other materials or devices that require electrolytes. Ionofibres enable certain phenomena currently limited to happen in liquids to be feasible in air in a lightweight fashion. The applications are multiple and unique, for example for textile batteries, textile displays or textile muscles," said Claude Huniade.

Needs further research
Yet more research is needed to combine the ionofibres with other functional fibres and to produce the unique textile devices.

How do they stand out compared to common electronically conductive fibres?
"In comparison to electronically conductive fibres, ionofibers are different in how they conduct electricity. They are less conductive, but they bring other properties that electronically conductive fibers often lack. Ionofibres achieve higher flexibility and durability and match the type of conduction that our body uses. They actually match better than electronically conductive fibres with how electricity is present in nature," he concluded.

adidas has unveiled the latest in its Made with Nature Capsule Collection with a new Ultraboost 22 Made with Nature and Made with Nature apparel joining the range as the brand continues its mission to call time on conventional materials and design out finite resources.

Designed in balance with the planet, the women’s Ultraboost 22 Made with Nature takes the forward-thinking elements of the Ultraboost 22 and amplifies them with natural materials. The shoe is made in part with natural materials – 40% of the knitted upper is made with lyocell, a material created with cellulosic fibers made from sustainably grown wood.

Launching alongside the Ultraboost 22 Made with Nature is a new Made with Nature apparel range, including a performance running wear look for men and women. The apparel range is made with at least 50% organic cotton.

Christopher Wheat, Global Category Director Running Footwear said: “At adidas, we understand that change is not only possible, it’s an urgent necessity. With Made with Nature, we are on a journey to a world beyond plastic. We’re calling time on conventional materials and methods of make. Once depleted, there’s no coming back for fossil resources. But when we design in synergy with natural processes, when we make with nature, we can use materials that regrow or regenerate – and change the way products are made."

• Growing geographic separation between cotton production and textile manufacturing since the 1990s

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a comprehensive study about Chinese cotton in August 2022. The authors, Fred Gale and Eric Davis, concentrate on textiles, imports and Xinjiang.

China is the world’s largest textile manufacturer and the largest cotton consumer, but changes in China’s economy are reshaping the geography of its cotton-textile sector. Nearly all of China’s cotton is produced in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), also known more simply as Xinjiang.

Their study reviewed the regional patterns of China’s cotton textile industry development and identified growing geographic separation between cotton production and textile manufacturing since the 1990s using data from Chinese sources. The study investigated spatial patterns of demand for imported cotton by analyzing lists of Chinese companies applying for a share of the import quota from 2016 to 2022. Multiple regression analysis was used to control for potentially confounding influences when investigating whether companies in coastal provinces were more likely to use imported cotton than similarly sized companies in other regions.

Textile manufacturers — the main consumers of cotton — are concentrated in coastal and central regions where the share of China’s cotton production fell from over 50 percent to 10 percent during 2011–21. These geographic changes are a factor influencing global trade in cotton and textiles. Additionally, the use of forced labor in Xinjiang attracted more attention to the industry, prompting the United States and other countries to ban products produced in the region.

This study reviews the economic, geographic, and policy factors reshaping the industry and influencing the global trade of cotton and textile products. The study also examines data on Chinese companies applying for a share of China’s cotton import quota to gain insight about the demand for imported cotton.

China became the world’s largest producer, consumer, and importer of cotton soon after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Despite adopting a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system for cotton imports and issuing supplemental quotas in most years, the large number of cotton goods manufacturers that request shares of the quota suggests demand for imported cotton exceeds  the quota.

While the TRQ was intended to protect China’s cotton farmers, many farmers abandoned the labor-intensive crop as wages rose rapidly in many other industries and other crops produced higher returns. In response, officials encouraged cotton production in the relatively remote region of Xinjiang to prevent China from becoming reliant on imported cotton. Xinjiang growers receive a subsidy payment for cotton, and subsidies for machinery and seeds. A transportation subsidy induces textile manufacturers in eastern and central regions to purchase cotton from Xinjiang, which is about 2,200 to 2,900 miles from most of the country’s textile manufacturers. Financial support and other incentives encourage manufacturers to shift operations to Xinjiang.

Textile manufacturers in China are highly interested in importing cotton due to its lower price and quality. China imports about 20 percent of its cotton, and the United States is a chief exporter of cotton to China. While imported cotton is used in all provinces, manufacturers near the eastern seaboard show a greater propensity for imports. Nevertheless, in all regions, domestic cotton has the largest share of mill use.

Between 2016 and 2022, 1,581 companies applied for a share of the TRQ, and 265 companies applied in all 7 years. Most of these companies also applied for supplemental quotas issued with slightly higher tariffs. This large number of applicants suggests that imports could be even greater if quotas did not limit them. The operation of the quota application process is not public information, but data submitted by applicants suggests access to imported cotton is uneven. About 14 percent of applicants said imported cotton comprised over half of the cotton they used. Another 20 percent of companies requesting import quota did not use any imported cotton, suggesting that many applicants are unable to import. Textile manufacturers coped with limits on cotton imports by increasing their use of synthetic, chemical-based fibers or by importing cotton yarn. From 2000 to 2020, China’s yarn imports doubled from under 1 million metric tons to around 2 million metric tons with Vietnam supplying about 45 percent of that total in 2020.

The number of textile manufacturers in Xinjiang applying for a share of the cotton import quota rose from 37 to 68 between 2016 and 2022. However, imports constituted less than 2 percent of  the cotton Xinjiang applicants reported using—and 66 percent of them reported using no imported cotton—suggesting that applications from Xinjiang textile companies were often denied.
Analysis found that applicants in coastal provinces used more imported cotton than similarly sized applicants in other regions. Each location of a multi-plant company must apply separately for tariff-rate quotas. Textile manufacturers in Xinjiang that requested a share of the import quota included branches of some of China’s largest textile companies, but the analysis found that Xinjiang applicants used less imported cotton than similar manufacturing plants located in other regions. China’s role as a cotton importer appears to have peaked, while other countries are increasing their share of imports.

USDA baseline projections suggest that by 2030 Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey will together account for 47 percent of the world’s cotton imports while China will only account for 24 percent. The study cam be downloaded from the USDA website.

IFFAC (Impact Fund for African Creatives) has revealed plans which will revolutionise West African textile and garment production at one stroke. The fund is converting a partially disused textile mill in the region into a hi-tech centre for processing local cotton and recycling waste fabric, to produce both fabric for further processing and new clothes. The mill will be equipped with modern equipment, all sustainably powered by hydroelectricity from the nearby Volta Dam.

West Africa grows about 6% of the world’s cotton but only a tiny fraction of that crop is processed on the continent, the vast majority being shipped thousands of miles to Asia before being shipped back again as finished or part-finished fabrics. The mill project will end the continent’s reliance on such an unsustainable practice with all the obvious financial and environmental benefits.

As well as producing fabric from sustainably grown virgin cotton, a joint venture with Shandong-based WOL Textiles Ltd., a privately owned plant that has long supplied the African market, the mill will be home to a state-of-the-art shredding and recycling facility, a joint venture between IFFAC and the Dutch Circularity B.V. CEO Han Hamers of Circularity B.V. in The Netherlands, has been involved in the production of 100% circular knit and woven articles.

The mill project is expected to create over a thousand jobs. The surrounding area already boasts a significant number of experienced textile workers ready to be retrained on the new equipment. While the majority of the products created will be sold within the region, all processes will confirm to new EU Supply Chain Law to allow for the possibility of export.  

Output is forecast at six million pieces of finished clothing and twenty-five million metres of spun and woven cloth per year. In total, thirty million US$ of investment will be made in the site with operations ready to begin next year (2023).

• Sales increase of 10.7% to €549.8 million in the first half of 2022
• EBITDApre improves by 22.6%, higher than the increase in sales, to €87.9 million
• Positive business development, price increases and strict cost management led to forecast increase on June 7, 2022

Despite uncertain general conditions in the first six months 2022, SGL Carbon's business model is proving its resilience. After €270.9 million in Q1 2022, SGL Carbon was able to increase sales to €278.9 million in Q2. Accordingly, sales for the first half of 2022 amount to €549.8 million, which corresponds to a sales plus of €53.1 million or 10.7% compared to the same period of the previous year.

The increase in sales was driven in particular by customers in the semiconductor industry and growth in the industrial applications market segment. Demand from the automotive and chemical industries was also encouraging.

EBITDApre, as one of the Group's key performance indicators, improved by €16.2 million (+22.6%) to €87.9 million (H1 2021: €71.7 million). Consequently, the EBITDApre margin increased from 14.4% to 16.0%. In addition to the higher utilization of production capacities due to higher sales, the improvement in earnings was also driven by the largely successful passing-on of higher raw material and energy costs to customers as well as savings from the transformation program.

EBITDApre does not include positive one-off effects and non-recurring items totaling €10.6 million (H1 2021: minus €5.2 million). As a result, EBIT in H1 2022 increased significantly from €38.3 million to €69.6 million. Taking into account the financial result of minus €16.6 million (H1 2021: minus €14.0 million), consolidated net income for the first six months of the current fiscal year amounted to €48.8 million, compared to €17.9 million in the prior-year period.

Business Units
With an increase in sales of €22.2 million (+10.0%) to €243.4 million, the Graphite Solutions (GS) business unit made a major contribution to SGL Carbon’s sales growth. In particular, continued high demand from customers in the semiconductor sector, which represents approximately one third of the segment's sales, led to the positive business development in GS. As a result of the predominantly high-margin business, EBITDApre at GS improved by 22.7% to €54.0 million.

The Process Technology (PT) business unit benefited from the good order situation in the chemical industry in H1 2022 and consequently increased sales to €49.2 million (H1 2021: € 40.8 million). EBITDApre also improved from €0.1 million in the prior year’s first half to €4.1 million in H1 2022.

The Carbon Fibers (CF) business unit benefited in the 1st half 2022 from final deliveries to a major automotive manufacturer whose contract expired as scheduled on June 30, 2022. Segment sales increased by 5.8% year-on-year to €176.0 million. In contrast, EBITDApre at CF decreased by €4.2 million to €28.2 million despite the good order situation and successful price increases. It should be noted that CF was impacted by a special effect from energy derivatives for price hedging in the amount of €9.2 million in the first quarter of 2022.

With an increase in sales of 15.6% to €69.6 million, the Composite Solutions (CS) business unit continued its upward trend. The specialist for customized component solutions for the automotive industry improved its EBITDApre from €5.7 million in the first half of 2021 to the current €9.7 million, based in particular on price and volume effects.

Balance sheet figures
Working capital rose by 11.7% to €381.1 million as of June 30, 2022. This was mainly due to higher inventories (€ +73.9 million) and an offsetting increase in trade payables (€ +29.0 million). A targeted build-up of inventories in critical raw materials due to disruptions in transport routes and the recent Covid lockdown in Shanghai were some of the reasons for the higher inventory levels.

SGL Carbon's net financial debt slightly increased by €6.6 million to €212.9 million as of June 30, 2022 (Dec. 31, 2021: €206.3 million), which was due to a lower free cash flow of €7.5 million for H1 2022 (H1 2021: €56.6 million).

Guidance increase
On June 7, 2022, SGL Carbon raised its sales and earnings guidance for fiscal year 2022. The company now expects sales of €1.1 billion (previously: around €1.0 billion) and EBITDApre of €130 - 150 million (previously: €110 - 130 million). Based on the pleasing business development, realized price increases, a stringent cost management, and taking into account the currently known risks, SGL’s management expects to achieve the earnings forecast for 2022 at the upper end of the stated range.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.