From the Sector

• Potential loss of competitiveness, caused by the EU’s inaction of the energy crisis, and Chinese and US subsidies to domestic industry

Following yesterday’s European Council summit and its conclusions on the measures to tackle the energy crisis, the European textiles industry is extremely concerned about the fast loss of competitiveness of Europe and demands urgent action to save the industry.

The chain of factors determining this sharp decline in competitiveness is twofold. First, the energy cost in Europe is more than 6 times higher than in the US, China, and neighbouring countries. This factor alone has almost erased the business case for producing in the EU. At present, many textiles and clothing companies are producing at net loss or have shut down production. The industrial conditions have worsened in such a way that there is no business case to invest in Europe or buy products produced or processed in the EU. It is only the sense of responsibility of the entrepreneurs towards the European society that is keeping the plants and production running.

Secondly, while the EU is passive and extremely slow in articulating a credible and effective response to the energy crisis, the main international competitors and trade partners (China, India and the US respectively) have developed comprehensive state-aid frameworks for their domestic industry despite not being affected by this crisis at all. The latest example is the 369-billion-dollar scheme of the Inflation Reduction Act rolled out by the Biden administration.

Recent trade data  already indicate a loss of global competitiveness: imports to the EU have grown tremendously in 2022 (+35% year-to-date). It is also evident that the surge in imports goes in parallel with the surge of natural gas price. It is expected that energy prices will remain high and volatile, opening the door for imports to gain substantial market shares in the EU.

The chart indicates the development of the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) until September 2022 since Eurostat data for Q4 2022 has not been published yet. Euratex is aware that the market situation has eased somewhat since in the past months, but the crisis remains because gas prices are still extremely high in comparison to last year. This suggests that the current loss of competitiveness of the EU manufacturing will not be recovered even with lower energy prices, unless measures are taken to correct the unlevel playing field on which the EU industry has to operate in the international markets. Only with an ambitious and comprehensive relaunch plan at EU level, Europe will be able to restore its credibility as a global manufacturing powerhouse and investments.

If the status quo is maintained, not only the EU will not be able to recover its competitive position on the global business stage, but it will also fail its plans to reach zero-net emissions and achieve circularity. It is evident that these ambitions - that the industry is passionately supporting - need massive capital investments. However, in the current scenario an investments diversion can only be expected to markets where governments are actively supporting those investments and energy costs are much lower – regardless of their fossil- or non-fossil origin.

The European textiles industry – the whole value chain, from fibres, nonwoven, to fabrics, clothing manufacturers - are facing unprecedented pressure deriving from the current geopolitical situation, the new macroeconomic conditions and unfair competition from third states. The situation is going to worsen if no emergency action is taken, especially because a recession is expected in the coming months.

The main structural component of the EU manufacturing are SMEs: these are economic actors that are particularly exposed to the current crisis as they do not have the financial leverage to absorb the impact of energy prices for much longer. Urgent EU action is needed to ensure their survival.

EURATEX calls on the EU political leaders in the Commission, in the European Council and in the national capitals to:

1. Raise the ambition and adopt a comprehensive approach at EU level: energy, state-aid and trade policy must be brought together in a single strategy with concrete emergency solutions and with a clear SME dimension;
    
2. Let all hesitations aside and adopt a meaningful price cap on natural gas wholesales, that should be ideally no higher than 80 euro/MWh. In parallel, it should also be ensured that electricity prices are brought to a sustainable price level;
    
3. Change the European posture on state-aid, even temporarily. An ambitious plan of investments and state-aid in green technologies to support the industrial transition should be rolled out.

Such a plan, however, should not be conceived as a retaliation against our most necessary and like-minded trade partners. Access to finance and markets must be safeguarded for all those actors who are capable and willing to invest in Europe, on the basis of reciprocity. In   these challenging times for geopolitical stability, ensuring strong trade ties with our traditional allies and partners is of utmost importance. The roll-out of an investment and state aid plan should not interfere, but rather support, the dialogue with the US (and other partners) and the deepening of our trade and investment partnership. Such a dialogue should be accelerated in the context of the TTC as well as at WTO level.

On 13-14 October, EURATEX in partnership with ATP is organising the 10th European Textile & Apparel Convention in Porto, Portugal; the convention marks also the 24th Textile Industry Forum for Portugal.

The Porto Convention – titled Sustainability meets Competitiveness: How to Square the Circle? – will look at how companies can anticipate the new European regulatory framework, embrace innovation, and develop a business model where sustainability becomes a source of competitiveness and growth. In the current economic, social and political environment, Europe is facing many challenges: increased energy prices, unforeseen inflation and climate change, which add to the day-to-day challenges of running a business. Embracing the European Union’s commitment to a green and digital transformation, the textile industry needs to also move towards a new circular economy where recycling is at the core of the design process supported by digitalisation, innovation and new skills, and creativity. The conference will address explore solutions to turn quality and sustainability into a source of competitiveness.

The Porto Convention will see representatives of national and European institutions, experts from the industry and like-minded entrepreneurs come together to discuss ideas, share experiences and find solutions to face common challenges.

In view of the drastic deterioration of the market environment in the current quarter, the Lenzing Group suspends its guidance for the development of earnings in the 2022 financial year.

The further course of the 2022 financial year can only be estimated to a limited extent due to the extremely low visibility on the demand side and the high volatility of energy and raw material costs.

April–June 2022 in brief:

• Net sales increased by 4% and amounted to EUR 118.0 million (113.6)
• Comparable EBITDA decreased to EUR 1.9 million (15.3)
• Cash flow from operations was EUR 11.9 million (1.2)

January–June 2022 in brief:

• Net sales were in line with the previous year and amounted to EUR 228.3 million (229.0)
• Comparable EBITDA decreased to EUR 5.2 million (33.8)
• Cash flow from operations was EUR 9.2 million (17.1)

Outlook for 2022 unchanged
Suominen expects that its comparable EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) in 2022 will decrease clearly from 2021. The war in Ukraine has increased the already significant cost inflation in raw materials, energy, and transportation. Also, while there has been progress in the normalization of the customer inventory levels in the US, it has been somewhat slower than expected. These factors will impact the full year result negatively even though we expect that the demand for our products will improve in the second half of the year. In 2021, Suominen’s comparable EBITDA was EUR 47.0 million.

See attached document for full report.

• China Penalty Tariffs on Finished Textiles & Apparel Give U.S. Companies a Chance to Compete and are a Powerful Trade-Negotiation Tool, NCTO Tells U.S. International Trade Commission

Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished Chinese textile and apparel imports give American manufacturers a chance to compete and provide trade officials with an essential trade negotiation tool, the National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) told a key government panel today in a formal written submission. Removing them, the association said, would reward China, put U.S. manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage and do nothing to reduce inflation.

Those were among the key points outlined by NCTO President and CEO Kim Glas in a written testimony submitted to the U.S. International Trade Commission during three days of hearings on the economic impact of Section 301 China tariffs and Section 232 steel tariffs on U.S. industries.

The 301 penalty tariffs should be maintained “absent substantive improvements in China’s pervasive, predatory trade practices,” Glas said in her testimony.  China’s illegal actions “have put U.S. companies at a serious disadvantage, and tariffs give American manufacturers a chance to compete.” Glas noted that U.S. trade officials have “stressed that the penalty tariffs also create leverage and are a ‘significant tool’ in ongoing negotiations with China.”
 
While some advocates for lifting the tariffs point to concerns about inflation, Glas said, “canceling these penalty duties would do little to ease Americans’ inflationary pains.” She also noted that “apparel prices out of China continue to hit rock bottom even with the Section 301 tariffs in place. As detailed in an economic study recently released by Werner International, U.S. import prices for apparel from China have dropped 25 percent since 2019 and 50 percent since 2011.”

Glas also warned that lifting the tariffs would have “a substantial negative ripple effect” on U.S. free-trade agreements, including undermining those with Western Hemisphere partners that have established shorter coproduction supply chains and serve other U.S. and regional interests.

The Section 301 tariffs were first imposed in 2018 in response to China’s persistent violations of intellectual property rules. By law, they are now under review.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

Due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on the automotive industry and vehicle production as well as of rising inflation, Autoneum is adjusting its corporate outlook for the 2022 financial year. The market recovery will be delayed by current developments.

Since the outbreak of war in Ukraine, new bottlenecks in global supply and logistics chains have been impacting vehicle manufacturer production volumes and thus slowing the revenue and earnings development of the automotive supply industry, especially in Europe. Current developments are accompanied by accelerated inflation and significant price increases on the commodities markets, which have been further exacerbated by the war. These are felt at Autoneum through rising material, energy and transport costs. With regard to the rising costs, automotive manufacturers and suppliers are now required to ensure a fair burden sharing as partners.

In addition, renewed coronavirus-related lockdowns in China are delaying growth in Asia. According to the revised market forecasts1), global automobile production is expected to reach 80.4 million units in 2022, which represents an increase of 4.1% compared to 2021. Growth will thus be significantly lower than was still expected in mid-February.

Autoneum will do its utmost to minimize the impact on the Group. Despite the present challenges, the strategy will continue to be consistently implemented with a focus on innovative and sustainable technologies for growing markets of the future.

Based on current developments and knowledge, Autoneum has updated the forecasts that it presented at the Media Conference, which had not yet included the impacts of the war as outlined above. Autoneum continues to expect revenue to develop in line with the market. For the first half of the year, the Company expects an EBIT margin at break-even level. On the basis of the ongoing collaborative discussions with customers to participate in the sharing of the sharply increased energy and material costs, Autoneum anticipates an improvement in the EBIT margin to 2.0 to 3.0% (previously: 4.0 to 5.0%) for the full year 2022. Free cash flow for 2022 is expected to be in the mid to high double-digit million range.

Autoneum is very well positioned for the transformation of the automotive industry towards e-mobility and sustainability. Our product portfolio is suitable for all drive types, whether internal combustion, hybrid or pure electric vehicles. The medium-term forecasts that Autoneum published in November 2021 remain unchanged positive. The timing of the market recovery will be delayed by current events and will also depend on further geopolitical developments.

Business of the automobile industry and its suppliers was impacted in 2021 by the worldwide shortage of semiconductors and the correspondingly restrained development of production volumes, which was about the same as the previous year. Autoneum’s revenue in local currencies declined slightly by 1.6% compared with the previous year. In Swiss francs, Group revenue decreased by 2.3% to CHF 1 700.4 million year-on-year. For 2021 as a whole, an EBIT margin of a little more than 3% and a free cash flow of around CHF 70 million are expected.

Owing to the global shortage of semiconductors, automobile production for 2021 as a whole increased by 2.5% to 76.4 million vehicles and was thus only slightly higher than the previous year’s level. Autoneum’s revenue in local currencies declined by 1.6% year-on-year. Although revenue developed better than the market in three of four regions, the Company lagged slightly behind the global market trend. On the one hand, this was due to the fact that some vehicle models of US manufacturers predominantly supplied by Autoneum were disproportionately affected by the shortage of semiconductors, and, on the other hand, due to the lower share of Business Group Asia in Autoneum’s total revenue. The consolidated revenue in Swiss francs fell by 2.3% to CHF 1 700.4 million compared to the previous year (2020: CHF 1 740.6 million).

Revenue development in the Europe, Asia and SAMEA regions well above market
Business Group Europe recorded a decline in revenue of 1.6% in local currencies and was thus well above the market trend, which saw production fall by 4.4%. By contrast, revenue for Business Group North America in local currencies dropped by 7.2% and was thus well below the market, which saw a small increase of 0.1%. The vehicle models of US customers predominantly supplied by Autoneum were disproportionately affected by the semiconductor shortage. Consequently, Autoneum lagged behind the market trend in this region. Asia was the market least impacted by the semiconductor shortage in financial year 2021. Accordingly, in 2021 Asian automobile production saw good growth of 5.1%. Business Group Asia once again exceeded the overall Asian market, with revenue growth of 6.7% in local currencies. Business Group SAMEA (South America, the Middle East and Africa) significantly exceeded the market trend in financial year 2021.

Although 8.6% more vehicles were produced in the region compared to the prior year, Business Group SAMEA’s revenue rose by an impressive 24.8% on an inflation- and currency-adjusted basis. This growth was largely supported by high-volume programs in Turkey and South Africa.

Thanks to better than expected revenue at the end of 2021, Autoneum is in the upper range of its guidance, which was adjusted in October. Based on provisional figures, Autoneum expects an EBIT margin of slightly more than 3% and a free cash flow of around CHF 70 million for 2021.