From the Sector

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

A new interview study from NGO ChemSec shows that there is a gap between supply and demand when it comes to recycled materials, causing confusion and bottlenecks. Among other things, suppliers go out of their way using elaborate trade schemes to reach the coveted ”100% recycled” tag, which – it turns out – is not that important to consumer product brands. Far more crucial aspects, according to several major B2C companies, are:

• Honest communication towards customers
• Comprehensive information from suppliers
• Clear standards for recycled material

These are some of the conclusions from NGO ChemSec’s survey and interview study with 26 highly well-known consumer product brands. All brands responded to a survey concerning their current plastic use, as well as their needs, expectations and challenges regarding using more recycled material, to enable the shift to a circular economy for plastics.

Ten of the brands then participated in in-depth interviews on the same topics:, Essity, H&M, IKEA, Inditex , Lego, Mars,  SC Johnson, Tarkett, Unilever and Walgreens Boots Alliance.

Is non-mechanical recycling the answer?
Only about ten percent of all discarded plastics is recycled today, which is of course not nearly enough to achieve a circular plastics economy. Despite ambitions and initiatives to reduce plastics use – replacing the materials with other, more sustainable ones – the “plastic tap” is not expected to be turned off anytime soon. Quite the opposite, which makes raising the recycling rates more important than ever.

Although commercially viable, traditional (mechanical) recycling is afflicted with severe flaws, such as legacy chemicals, quality and functionality issues, as well as the lack of clean and sorted waste streams. The brands cited quality and functionality issues as the main obstacles for using more recycled material in their products.

This opens up for non-mechanical recycling, sometimes referred to as chemical recycling, where the plastic is either dissolved or broken down into smaller building blocks. Harmful additives and other hazardous chemicals can be removed in the process, and a material comparable to virgin plastic can be achieved – at least in theory.

So far, however, non-mechanical recycling technologies are costly, energy-intensive, and often require the addition of a great deal of virgin plastic to work – the very material that needs to be phased out.

The chain of custody models needs to be detangled
Apart from these production issues, there is a wide range of chain of custody models surrounding non-mechanical recycling, including mass balance and book & claim, which enable trade of credits or certificates for recycled material.

This cuts the physical connection between input and output, making it possible for a supplier to sell a material as “100% recycled”, when the actual recycled content could be zero.

This is a major issue for the brands ChemSec has spoken to, who value honest and correct communication towards customers. It turns out, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, that being able to slap a “made from 100% recycled plastic” label on a product is not all that important to brands.

To the brands, a physical connection between input (the discarded plastic waste headed for recycling) and output (the product at least partially made from recycled plastics) is far more important.

A physical connection, along with correct and adequate information from suppliers, as well as clearer standards and guidelines than what is available today, is what brands require to increase the use of recycled material and move us closer to a circular economy for plastics.

U.S. Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and U.S. Representative Kathy Manning (D-NC) wrote to President Biden calling on the Administration to prioritize purchasing fully made in America Personal Protective Equipment (PPE). The lawmakers outline four steps the Administration can take now to ensure our frontline workers have products needed to effectively carryout their critical responsibilities and to support domestic manufacturers who are ready to scale up production and help keep workers healthy and safe.

In their letter, Brown and Manning call on President Biden, through Executive Order and legislative efforts, to:

1. Prioritize the purchase of fully made in America PPE “Berry compliant” to help continue bolstering the U.S. supply chain regardless of purchasing agency;
2. Issue long-term contracts directly to domestic manufacturers when possible to help bolster the domestic supply chains;
3. Adopt a contracting purchase methodology that uses “Best Value” criteria versus “Lowest Price Technically Acceptable” criteria; and
4. Designate a point person in charge of coordinating the government’s efforts to procure PPE and other medical equipment who is responsible for meeting regularly with key domestic manufacturing stakeholders.

A full copy of Brown and Manning’s letter can be found here.

The National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) issued a statement today on the Trump administration’s announced action plan to increase enforcement and penalties against counterfeit goods sold online and imported to the U.S.

“This is a very important and long overdue move on the part of the administration to increase enforcement activity and penalties against counterfeit goods sold online and imported into the United States,” said NCTO President and CEO Kim Glas. “We commend the administration for making a commitment to bolster efforts to crack down on counterfeits, particularly in the textile and apparel sector, which has been hit hard by fake imported products for decades.”

Nearly two million shipments of goods are exported to the United States duty free each day-- often from countries with poor labor, human rights and environmental track records—under a provision known as Section 321 de minimis. This provision allows goods valued below an $800 threshold to enter the U.S. duty free when imported directly to an individual on a single day.  

“This massive increase in de minimis shipment trade poses significant security risks and threats to public health and safety, while incentivizing customs fraud and creating a loophole to our entire tariff structure,” Glas said. “Our concerns regarding the de minimis loophole are exacerbated by the belief that the domestic textile industry and other U.S. manufacturing interests are directly and negatively impacted, particularly since e-commerce sites like Amazon and others are using de minimis as a duty-free portal into the U.S. for products under $800.”

Furthermore, CBP’s own annual report on intellectual property seizures, including large volumes of counterfeits, revealed that U.S. authorities made seizures totaling $1.4 billion in fiscal 2018. Over 90 percent of all intellectual property (IPR) seizures occur in the international mail and express shipment environments, according to the report, which is a common method of shipping by e-commerce sites.

Chinese products accounted for 46% of all IPR seizures with a total Manufacturers Suggested Retail Price (MSRP) value of $761.1 million in FY 2018. Apparel and accessories were the top counterfeit products seized by U.S. authorities, accounting for 18% of all seizures in FY 2018 with an MRSP value of $115.2 million.

“We think this is an important step forward by the administration to deepen the analysis on de minimis products--- that are often not thoroughly examined and undercut our domestic manufacturing industries,” Glas said. “We don’t know what the products are, where they are coming from, whether they meet U.S. safety requirements, who is making them or the country of origin. We believe it is long past time for the administration to address the issue of de minimis shipments and counterfeiting head on.”

Archroma, a global leader in color and specialty chemicals, will be presenting its innovative and sustainable denim solutions for manufacturers and brands at DenimsandJeans Vietnam 2018, on June 27 and 28.
From fiber to finish, Archroma offers a scope of possibilities for effects and colors, from the authentic roots of indigo to the most innovative and eco-advanced solutions. Archroma is a recognized leader in integrated solutions, offering best-in-class auxiliaries for bespoke process packages.
Visitors will be able to discover solutions designed to make denim in a more sustainable and responsible way, in particular:
DENISOL®, BRINGING INDIGO BACK TO ITS ROOTS - NOW ANILINE-FREE*
Archroma’s Denisol® range is a newly developed pre-reduced liquid indigo solution that is manufactured in Archroma’s award winning ‘zero liquid discharge’ manufacturing plant in Pakistan.

• Denisol® Indigo 30 liq is compliant with major official eco-standards and requirements from retailers, brands and fashion leading companies and helps to produce fabrics suitable for current eco-labeling such as bluesign® and GOTS.
• Responding to demands for a non-toxic alternative to the dyes that are used for the iconic and traditional indigo blue that consumers associate with denim and jeans, Archroma just announced the upcoming new Denisol® Pure Indigo 30.

ADVANCED DENIM, TOWARDS WATERLESS DENIM DYEING
Consider this: The water needed to produce one pair of jeans is said to be ~ 11'000 liters(1). With approximately 167 million pairs of jeans produced monthly(2), that is 1,837,000,000,000 liters of water consumed every month in the process! Based on the Denim-Ox and Pad/Sizing-Ox dyeing processes, Archroma’s multi-awarded ADVANCED DENIM, dyeing technology allows savings of up to 92% in water, 87% in cotton waste and 30% in energy, compared to a conventional denim dyeing process.
The technology has been adopted by brands like Patagonia and received the prestigious 2012 ICIS Innovation Award and Innovation with Best Environmental Benefit Award.

• Optisul® C, “soft colors” made easy
  Colors other than blue have been tricky to achieve in the past. With Optisul® C dyes, denim manufacturers can expand their color horizons with this range of six dyes especially designed to produce soft denim colors in continuous dyeing processes, as well as on coating and printing. Optisul® C affinity-free, sulfide-free dyes can easily be combined with each other to create garments suitable for wash-down treatments in a wide array of easily achievable and reproducible soft colors. They are suitable for GOTS and bluesign® approval.
• Diresul® RDT Ocean Blues, ocean-themed bright sulfur blue dyes
  Archroma’s Diresul® RDT Ocean Blues are a collection of vibrant, ocean-themed bright sulfur blue dyes. These best-in-class dyes and their auxiliaries bring out the best of indigo, improve workability, dyeing consistency and process safety.
  They can be combined with Denisol® Indigo 30 liq in bottoming/topping manufacturing routes for avant-garde blue styles. At the booth, Archroma will display an “illustration collection” of exciting indigo casts.
• Diresul® blacks & greys, a universe of greys and deep black and navies.
  Archroma’s dye portfolio of conventional and black Diresul® specialties allow to create a universe of greys and deep black and navies. From superficial to solid blacks for both extreme wash-down and stay black effects.

EARTHCOLORS, TRACEABLE FROM NATURE TO FASHION
As consumers increasingly aspire to functional, beautiful and meaningful clothing, brands and manufacturers are increasingly interested in the environmental impact of the denim industry. Archroma has placed sustainability at the heart of its innovation process to create products and processes that improve the industry’s sustainability.
The EarthColors patented range of “biosynthetic” dyes for cotton and cellulose-based fabrics, which are made from waste left over by the agricultural and herbal industry after extraction, such as almond shells, saw palmetto, or rosemary leaves. The latest NFC technology used on the end-product hangtags enables transparency and traceability through the supply chain to consumers.
The EarthColors allow to produce the earth tones that are coming strong: red, brown and green colors. They have been adopted by brands such as Patagonia, Kathmandu and G-Star, and won an OutDoor Industry Award 2017.

SOLUTION PACKAGES FOR SUSTAINABILITY
Brand owners and retailers around the world are taking action to evaluate the environmental impact of textile treatment, dyeing and finishing processes in response to consumer concerns.

Archroma recently introduced the ONE WAY Process Simulator, the last update of a calculation tool that supports its ONE WAY Sustainability Service introduced back in 2012. The new, online software can be used to mimic and compare products and processes, and thus calculate the ecological and economical profile of the final end-product.
Archroma’s portfolio of ZDHC MRSL-compliant chemicals and dyes is integrated into the ONE WAY calculation tool since 2013.
“Innovation and sustainability go hand in hand,” says Paul O’Prey, Head of Sales, Brand & Performance Textile Specialties, Archroma, Vietnam. “While developing new products and services, we always consider the environmental impact so they are as sustainable as possible. This can be seen in our innovative and eco-advance products, such as the water-saving ADVANCED DENIM and the aniline-free* Denisol® Pure Indigo.”