Textination Newsline

• The cultivation of cotton is to be expanded

Pakistan's textile industry has lost competitiveness. Investments in new textile technology are necessary. Exports of German machinery increase.

The textile industry is Pakistan's most important industrial sector. In Pakistan's fiscal year 2017/18 (July 1st 2017 to June 30th 2018), the textile industry accounted for 8.5 percent of gross domestic product. The sector accounted for about a quarter of the total industrial value added. It is by far the country's most important export sector. Textile exports accounted for 58 percent of total exports in 2017/18.

However, the international competitiveness of the sector is currently declining. This trend should turn around. Prime Minister Imran Khan met with representatives of the textile industry at the end of January 2019. Economic policy aims to expand and modernize the textile industry. Production costs are to be reduced and productivity increased. In addition, quality improvements, production expansions and higher added value are necessary.

The textile industry's value chain begins with around 1,300 companies that are ginning, process and bale raw cotton. In addition to the demand for cotton, the demand for synthetic fibers is also increasing, although there are only three manufacturers of polyester fibers in Pakistan to date.

The number of spinning mills is estimated at 517 in 2017 and the number of weaving mills at 124 large and 425 medium-sized and small mills. Ten large and 625 medium-sized and small companies process fabrics. Towels were produced by about 400 companies, knitted fabrics by 2,500 companies. Clothing made of woven fabrics was supplied by 50 large factories and 2,500 medium-sized and small factories.

Export transactions stagnate
Pakistan's textile exports grew by 8.7 percent to USD 13.5 billion in 2017/18. This level was already reached in 2013/14 and 2014/15. Textile exports in the first seven months of fiscal year 2018/19 (July 18th to January 19th) increased slightly by 1.2 percent year-on-year to US$ 7.8 billion.

^*) Fiscal years (July to June)

Sources: All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA); Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; Textile Commissioner's Organization

The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (APTMA) aims to increase exports to USD 28 billion by 2023/24. This requires consistent state support and long-term export promotion, according to the association.

The leading foreign customer is the USA. Other important customers include the United Kingdom, Germany and Spain. In 2017 and 2018, Germany imported textile materials and goods worth EUR 1 billion from Pakistan.

Machine imports still declining
Imports of textile machinery in 2013/14 amounted still to USD 599 million. In the following three years it was USD 449 million (2014/15), USD 462 million (2015/16) and USD 557 million (2016/17). Imports are not currently showing an upward trend despite the need for modernization. According to the statistics authority, they fell by 42 per cent to USD 325 million in 2017/18. There are still no signs of a recovery in 2018/19 either.

Sources: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, UN Comtrade

Business trip to the fifth largest customer of German spinning technology
According to calculations by the German Engineering Federation (VDMA), German textile machinery exports to Pakistan increased to EUR 53 million in 2017. The previous year's figure was EUR 48 million, EUR 39 million of which was attributable to spinning machines.

A business trip of German companies from the textile machinery and accessories sectors will take place to Karachi and Lahore from November 11th to 15th 2019. The Federal Ministry of Economics and Energy will promote and the company SBS Systems for Business Solution will organize the trip (contact: Thomas Nytsch, e-mail: thomasnytsch@sbs-business.com).

Cotton production to be strongly increased
The local cotton production is the base of the textile industry. After India, China and the USA, Pakistan is the fourth largest cotton producer, followed by Brazil and Uzbekistan. Without an increase in local crop yields, the growth of the textile industry is limited. Increased imports of cotton would further reduce the industry's struggling international competitiveness.

In an international comparison, the country is one of the cotton producers with the lowest yields per hectare. Australia, Turkey, China and Brazil form the leading group with about 1,600 to 1,700 kilograms per hectare. Pakistan only reaches 600 to 800 kilograms.

¹⁾ one bale = 170 ^{kilograms, 2)} Forecast
Source: Pakistan Bureau of Statistics; research by Germany Trade & Invest

The government has set a production target of around 15 million bales for 2019/20. APTMA believes an increase to 20 million bales is possible by 2023/24. The association assumes that there will be about 2,800 hectares of cultivated land and an increase in yields per hectare to 1,200 kilograms.

Problems with the supply of cotton

Baumwolle wird vor allem in den Provinzen Punjab und Sindh angebaut. Die Baumwollproduktion erreichte 2014/15 noch rund 14 Millionen Ballen. Die Ernte fiel 2015/16 auf unter 10 Millionen und lag 2017/18 bei 12 Millionen Ballen. Die Produktion ist 2018/19 wieder gesunken, ein Wert von etwa 11 Millionen Ballen wird prognostiziert. Als Gründe werden unter anderem Wassermangel, eine schlechte Qualität der Pflanzenschutzmittel und minderwertiges Saatgut genannt. Zudem sei die finanzielle und regulatorische Unterstützung der Regierung unzureichend, so Branchenvertreter.

The local supply could therefore no longer cover the annual cotton demand of the textile industry of 15 to 16 million bales in recent years. Textile manufacturers therefore imported cotton mainly from India and China, about 3 million to 4 million bales a year. However, imports from India have been stopped since February 2019. The background to this is the political tensions and recent military conflicts between the two states.

• E-Commerce Market continues to grow rapidly

Russia's online retailers are entering into strategic alliances. The market is maturing and consolidating. German suppliers must prepare themselves for tougher competition.
Russia's online trade continues to record strong growth rates. In 2018, sales increased by 19 percent year-on-year to around Rubel 1.2 billion (EUR 15.5 billion; 1 EUR = 74.04
Rubles, annual average exchange rate 2018). This corresponded to about 290 million orders, according to Data Insight's analysis. By the end of 2023, the investment bank Morgan Stanley expects annual growth of 25 percent to Rubles 3.5 billion. In 2018, the cross-border Internet trade increased by 29 percent to the equivalent of EUR 4.7 billion.

¹⁾ Physical goods only; excluding cross-border trade, deliveries of ready meals, tickets for transport and events, coupons, consumer-to-consumer and multi-level marketing;
²⁾ Nominal year-on-year; variance due to rounding.
Sources: Market research institute Data Insight; Association of Online Retailers (NAMO)

The share of e-commerce in retail sales is currently still around 5 percent. With the "Strategy for the Development of Online Trade by 2025", the government wants to increase this up to 20 percent. The conditions for further growth are good, as Russian consumers are Internet-savvy and open to technical innovations. Already 76 percent of all Russians have an Internet connection. According to the national "Digital Economy" project, broadband Internet penetration is expected to reach 97 percent by 2024.
 
Growth potential far from exhausted
Russia's online retailers are following this trend by modernizing their websites and are investing in goods logistics. Electronic marketplaces are becoming increasingly popular. This is because they offer smaller Internet retailers in particular the opportunity to assert themselves against the market leaders.
In the Forbes ranking of the 20 most valuable Internet companies in Russia, online retailers Wildberries and Ozon rank fourth and fifth respectively. The Russian fashion mail order company Lamoda - a foundation of the German Rocket Internet - is in ninth place.     
The Otto Group realigned its business model in Russia in 2018 and removed its subsidiaries Quelle and Otto from the market. The Hamburg-based group relies on the online brands Bonprix and Witt as well as on the eSolutions platform, which offers B2B services in the areas of marketing, sales, logistics and IT.

Source: Data Insight (http://datainsight.ru/top100/)

Russia gets two "local Amazons" at once 
Russian online trading is already firmly in the hands of a few large players who are continuing to expand their market presence. The market leader Wildberries added electronics and household appliances to its range in 2018. AFK Sistema Holding of the oligarch Yevgeny Yevtushenkov has increased its stake in the online retailer Ozon and is investing in the construction of new logistics centers In addition, Ozon started selling medicines, jewellery and ready meals.  

In April 2018, the Russian technology group Yandex and Sberbank agreed to establish the Beru and Bringly online marketplaces. The aim is to further develop the Yandex.Market platform into a "Russian Amazon". Russia's largest bank brings in the customer data of 100 million account holders.
Beru and Bringly's range mainly includes high-priced goods such as electronics, clothing, shoes and cosmetics. Bringly cooperates with the British cosmetics chain Feelunique, among others. In September 2018, Yandex.Market also concluded a cooperation agreement with Hepsiburada, Turkey's largest online marketplace. 

Alibaba expands its market presence in Russia
In September 2018, the next major merger in Russian online trading was announced: The Mail.ru Group and Megafon (part of the company empire of the oligarch Alisher Usmanow), the Russian Fund for Direct Investments and the Chinese technology group Alibaba intend to establish a joint online marketplace by the end of the first quarter of 2019. Alibaba intends to expand its presence on the Russian market.
The Mail.ru Group provides access to the data records of around 100 million users - an enormous new customer potential for the Chinese online giant. On March 5th  2019, AliExpress, the Russian subsidiary of Alibaba, also launched a platform for the sale of passenger cars of the Chinese brand Chery.

Duty-free limit continues to fall
Two thirds of Russian online buyers also order goods from foreign traders. 90 percent of the deliveries come from China. If the price and weight of the product are within the exemption limits, no sales tax is payable. On 1 January 2019, the exemption limit for cross-border online trading was halved to EUR 500 and the weight limit was lowered from 31 to 25 kilograms. From January 1st   2020, the tax-free allowance will fall to EUR 200.  However, this measure is unlikely to generate any additional revenue for the Russian State. In 86 percent of cross-border online purchases, the maximum value of goods is at about USD 22.

Above all, capacity bottlenecks in the delivery of online orders are currently putting the brakes on sector. VTB-Bank is therefore investing around EUR 410 million in the construction of 40 logistics and distribution centers for the Russian Post Office (Potschta Rossii) by 2021. The state-owned company intends to profit from the growth in the online commerce and increase its revenue from parcel services for e-commerce to Rubel 122 billion by 2023. Since September 2018, the Russian Post has been distributing deliveries from China via hubs in Siberia and the Far East.
The logistics service provider DPD has been working with the Avito advertising portal since October 2018. In future Its customers will be able to collect their parcels at around 1,500 DPD stations. Since June 2018 DHL and eBay have been working together on logistics services in Russia.

The development of B2B platforms is becoming increasingly important in Russia's online trade. The potential is huge: the Russian B2B online market amounts to around USD 20 billion - and the trend is rising. Pioneers such as Sewerstal, Alrosa or Technonikol already rely on B2B platforms to sell directly to their end customers. In 2018, the Chinese Fosun Group acquired around 20 percent of the shares in the B2B platform Prod.Center, on which agricultural products are traded.

• Competition from the Far East increases modernization pressure

Turkey is an important market for German manufacturers of textile machinery. However, the textile and clothing industry has a problem: exports have been stagnating for years.

The Turkish textile industry is broadly based: Companies manufacture all intermediate products in the country, including yarns, fibers and fabrics. Production along the entire textile value chain means great sales potential for German suppliers of textile machinery. In fact, Turkey is the second most important export market for German spinning, weaving, textile finishing machines and the like after China, as it can be seen from the figures of the Federal Statistical Office Destatis.Nevertheless, the sector is not a growth market. Apart from a few outliers upwards and downwards, Turkish textile machinery imports have remained at the same level for several years. This is due to the fact that Turkish exports of textiles and clothing are also stagnating. Particularly noticeable: companies benefited only marginally from the weak lira last year.

Source: Turkish Statistical Office TÜIK (http://www.tuik.gov.tr)

Increasing pressure from the Far East
Turkish clothing manufacturers are increasingly feeling the effects of competition from the Far East. Despite the high number of informal workers, wages in Turkey have risen to such an extent that they cannot keep up with the low wages of Asian sewing factories. The geographical advantage of Turkish companies over Chinese competitors is at stake because of the new Silk Road and the development of faster transport routes. Free trade agreements that the European Union is currently negotiating with India and South Korea will further increase the pressure on Turkish producers.

Slump in 3rd quarter 2018
In addition, there is the difficult economic situation in the country: the Turkish lira reached a record low, especially in the months of August to October 2018, and commercial banks raised their lending rates. As a result, financing costs for machinery from abroad suddenly increased, orders from Turkey failed to materialize, especially in the third quarter. The German knitting machine manufacturer Mayer & Cie has also noticed this, as Stefan Bühler, who is responsible for the Turkish business, reports: "In the last three months of 2018, the market was virtually dead. In the meantime, however, the industry is gradually recovering.

Akar Textile plans new factory
Announcements about new investments cannot yet be heard at this time. As early as June 2018, Akar Textile (http://www.akartextile.com) announced that it would build a new factory for 47 million Turkish lira (TL) in the municipality of Savur in southeastern Turkey. 3,000 employees are there to become employed. Akar Textile produces for companies such as C&A, Mango and H&M. Only a few months after the announcement of the project, the economic crisis in Turkey deepened in September. The extent to which the turbulence has affected the project implementation is not known.

Technical textiles as a driving force for growth
Far Eastern competition is increasing the pressure to modernize the Turkish textile industry. In the future, industry will have to compete primarily with high-quality products. Growth impulses are currently coming from the sector of technical textiles. According to industry reports, more than 200 small and medium-sized enterprises are already producing technical textiles and nonwovens in Turkey. These textiles and fabrics are being used in the automotive, packaging and cosmetics industries.

In June 2018, the Turkish METYX Group (http://www.metyx.com) invested in its machinery parc. The company is manufacturing technical textiles and has ordered a line of warp knitting machines from the German textile machine manufacturer Karl Mayer. The manufacturer of composite materials is thus increasing its capacity by 12,000 tons of glass and carbon fibers. In recent years, more and more research and development centers have emerged to promote the necessary technology transfer in the industry. The Institute for Technical Textiles at RWTH Aachen University (ITA) founded a research center in Istanbul in October 2016. In the Teknosab industrial zone in Bursa the BUTEKOM research and development center for textile technology was established in 2008. The institute offers training as well as research and development cooperation to and with companies.

However, many medium-sized textile companies often lack the money to invest in modern machinery. The short planning horizon makes an access to research and development more difficult. As a member of the management board of the German-Turkish Chamber of Industry and Commerce, Frank Kaiser has been observing the Turkish business landscape for eight years. He points out that the textile manufacturers, like other medium-sized companies in the country too, often plan in short terms. "In view of the volatile business environment, this is rational," Kaiser explains.

¹⁾ the slump in the 3rd quarter is not yet visible in the annual figures for 2018; it will not become noticeable until 2019
Sources: UN-Comtrade, TurkStat ²⁾, Bundesbank