Textination Newsline

Observers doubt the Success of the planned Measures / Ambitions in the Automotive Industry

Nairobi (gtai) - The countries of the East African Community will prohibit the import of used clothing and used shoes in three years. Long since defunct textile and clothing industries so revived. It is also planned to impede the import of used cars, in order to promote a local car assemblers. In particular, the Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni dreams of building its own car industry.

The East African Community (EAC), who is also Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi belong alongside Uganda, other countries serve as role models. So to have led to building lively textile industries in Ghana, Egypt, Ethiopia, India and Vietnam, such a ban.

Used clothing is very popular East Africa. With luck, you can get hold of well-preserved Western European branded goods or shoe sizes, as they are locally not available for little money. Many teenagers from expensive villas suburbs of capitals makes a kick out, used T-shirts to buy exotic printing at prices equivalent to 0.45 euros. Thanks to the second-hand imports contribute even male slum dwellers naturally a western suit and girls or young women from a wide array chic western clothes.

1) Primarily apparently used clothing, blankets and kitchen linen of textile materials and shoes that are loose presented in bulk or bales. 2) provisionally
Source: Destatis

Politicians promise hundreds of thousands of new jobs
While East African politicians boast of being able to create in this way hundreds of thousands of jobs, incite economists from: "The reasons why people in East Africa are happy to buy used clothes easily enumerated," said Scolastica Odhiambo, an economics professor at the Kenyan Maseno University: "It is less expensive, of good quality and provides diversity." The regional textile industry have meanwhile not have the capacity to meet the demand. In addition, they do not produce quality  in the eyes of the local population. The only local manufacturer of shoes, meanwhile, the company Bata that however mainly produces shoes for students and a local SME. In the upper price segment Bata, however, is dependent on imports.

In a period of three years, it is the opinion of observers simply impossible to expand the local textile industry so that it can meet the demand both quantitatively and qualitatively. This time is also too short to find alternative employment for hundreds of thousands of second-hand clothes dealer who live with their families from the Mitumba business (Mitumba = bales).

Industrial decline since the 1980s
If the East African states really want to try willing to build a powerful textile industry, they would almost from scratch start. The East African cotton production was mid- 1980 even at the height. Tanzania had  then 700,000 bales (à 185 kg) produces cotton, reports the weekly "The East African", Uganda and Kenya 400,000 100,000. Then it was just gone downhill. Kenya had last only 25,000 bales (2014), Uganda 150,000 bales (2015) and Tanzania produced 30,000 bales (2014).

East African textile factories and Entkörnungswerke for cotton (ginneries) have shut down or run down for the most part. The main reasons included industry experts, a lack of organization of the agricultural sector, high production costs, the inadequate use of quality inputs and over-reliance on a rain irrigation. Then in 1991 came yet added the liberalization of the sector: Cheap Used clothes conquered henceforth
the market.

Uniforms instead of fashion chic?
How difficult is the situation, be seen using the example of single Rwandan textile factory L'Usine Textile du Rwanda (UTEXRWA). 1984 began its operation,the 75-million-US $ - Investment. But for an average Rwandans were and are the products simply too expensive. Finally, the utilization was only at 20%, sales fell to an estimated $ 2 million to 3 million US. Almost all substances are already imported: cotton
fabrics from the East African neighbors, polyester materials from South Africa, Taiwan, Korea and Indonesia (Rep.).

To prevent the utter collapse of the company, the Rwandan government will soon raise the import tariffs on clothing gradually from 35% to 100%. Rwandan clothing retailers see the highly critical: UTEXRWA could neither quantity nor quality and certainly not fashionable Chic deliver, not now and not in ten years. Over military and school uniforms are not there, they say.

Prohibitions instead of better frame conditions
Foreign observers speak of a typical East African policy Quick shot: Because the governments want to defuse the ticking time bomb of rapidly rising unemployment, they sat on activism without the  consequences to sufficiently discuss. If East Africa wants to strengthen its industry, it must improve the framework. Bureaucracy, corruption, nepotism and monopolies are the ones that prevent the development of competitive industries for decades.

The winner of the new policy is expected to - be the PRC, which is expected to fill along with other low-cost producers, the expected supply vacuum - again. Clothing stores in the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa to show where we are headed: The cheapest Chinese commodity, wherever you look. The new Ethiopian textile and footwear industry is meanwhile mainly from Chinese companies which produce exclusively for export. to copy this model to other East African countries, however, is likely to fail, say industry insiders. Kenya and Tanzania are far too expensive, not to mention the landlocked countries of Uganda, Burundi and Rwanda throughout.

*) provisional; Quelle: Destatis

Protectionism to promote motor vehicle industry
Even more questionable than the East African textile policy is rekindled desire to raise its own automotive industry launched. Hopefuls nationalist politicians in Kenya is the "Mobius", an all-terrain vehicle primitive, which is equipped with a small engine from the Nissan NP200 pick-up truck. Students of Uganda Makerere University have meanwhile introduced with the help of the US Massachusetts Institute of
Technology two concept studies, the "Kiira EV Smak Car" and "Kayoola Solar Bus". While the Kenyan "development" is reminiscent of the technical status of the 2nd World War, set the Ugandan vehicles
conscious on renewable energy.

Although these backyard experiments also not likely to have the lowest commercial opportunities, they nevertheless serve currently as an excuse for protectionist import barriers, which resulted in imports are likely to be more difficult in favor of a local assembly of CKD kits.

• Vietnam is largest beneficiary
• Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

Labor costs in China will not move down again. Even when the economic growth increasingly weakens, China's coastal regions are already often too expensive for wage-intensive productions. The world's largest location of the manufacturing sector will anyway leave its dependence of exports and will generate more growth through domestic consumption. The remaining companies are therefore increasingly focused on Chinese customers. Has the textile industry heard the signals already several years ago and shifted away, now the electronics companies have started to search.

But – the relocation of production is not so easy, the experts agreed upon at the discussion panel Shifting Supply Chains in Asia on the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong. Because no country, except India, offers such a workforce. But neither the infrastructure and the investment climate can match, nor the country has any interest in low-production stages. Furthermore China has set up a supply industry without any comparison.

Relocation trends slow down

Even Bangladesh, established for a long time as a cheap location for clothes, is losing its attractiveness - experts say. Besides fundamentally difficult production conditions especially scandals like collapsing factories are responsible. No western clothing manufacturer likes to be associated with that repute today. While Indonesia was generally judged for being rather little investment friendly, the Philippines would provide a better reputation than years ago. So in addition to numerous Japanese producers also German companies have moved from southern China to the special areas of the Philippines.

Due to wage cost increases by an average of 15% per year, China with it’s the low-wage area has catapulted itself in a large extent out of the market. In times of rising productivity this was compensated for a while but at last the model came to its limits. The empire of the middle will therefore make the leap to a consumptionbased growth based on production of high-tech and on the provision of services. It is still
unclear whether this leap across the "middleincome trap" will succeed. Many emerging countries are caught in this trap, and the growth is flagging.

German buyers order less in China

Accordingly German retailers are increasingly reducing their imports from China and buy more and more in other countries. This is the result of a member survey of the Foreign Trade Association of German Retailers (AVE), at which for the most part textile and shoe retailers participated. 80% of the respondents have already reduced their import volume from China in 2015, 90% of the companies said they are
planning to source from other supply regions. The merchants are seeing a shift to countries like Myanmar (78%), Bangladesh (67%) and Vietnam (56%).

Vietnam, which already benefited in recent years from the relocation, was still recommended on the AFF as a top location. The country with the highest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2015 would have risen in the 1st half of 2015 to the fourth-largest exporter of textiles, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) analyzed. For shoes it is already the third largest supplier worldwide. Based on mega investments from Samsung, now the electronics industry came out of the starting blocks and should attract more activities. Experts cite especially the mixture of young, growing populations with low labor costs as an important locational advantage.

Vietnam benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTA)

A thrust Vietnam's attractiveness currently receives through free trade agreements which are in a final stage. So a free trade agreement with the European Union was signed in December 2015 which was followed early February 2016 by the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The latter agreement, which includes next to ten other Pacific neighbors the United States, should bring a large benefit for Vietnam. For the Vietnamese consumer goods manufacturers the US is the most important market, the large retailers in the United States can move their procurements very fast.

As an underdeveloped member Vietnam is likely to get larger portions of the value chain in the textile and electronics area at the ratification (and even before). The country is still missing a developed supplier structure. This is just happening to be built in the textile sector, there are investments in capacity for yarns, fabrics and dyeing going on. For Samsung, the largest foreign investor, all components are still coming
from China. And only when a large proportion of the added value comes from TPP member states, the low duty will become applicable.

While the purchasing power is not quite so big in Europe, costs play an important role also there. But next to it the control of the supply chain and the flexibility has developed a greater role, rapid changes of trends and collections are determined by customers and the Internet. Therefore also here a shift back, closer to the markets, has begun. Romania and Bulgaria have established themselves in the middle of
Europe as a "low-wage locations". But even there the population is characterized by aging. Accordingly labor forces will become scare and wages will rise. Ukraine is traded as a new location.

Africa still with small potential

Little potential the experts from the Supply Chain Panels evidence the location of sub-Saharan Africa. This was tested by some buyers or producers, but the results would not be convincing. The views however diverge. Some Chinese companies are already partly on site and American manufacturers are monitoring the further development. So, for example, the VF Corporation, the largest denim retailer in the world, is buying in Africa. Only Ethiopia would have potential - according to a representative. But the infrastructure, investment climate and working morale could not be comparable.

So - basically serious alternatives to the established locations are lacking. Therefore, due to the scarcity of labor, costs and thus the final prices will rise. Even in Vietnam the minimum wage increased by 15% in 2015. But when it will be hardly possible to turn at the purchase screw, the companies need to position themselves better in marketing and sales, so a large clothing buyer. Therefore social media must be used in order to come closer to the customer and, for example, to develop individualization as a selling point.

Source: McKinsey survey of chief purchasing managers

• 80.000 trade visitors from 128 countries
• Significant increase in visitors from Europe
• 1,185 exhibitors from 50 countries
• LivingInteriors dazzles with Smarthome

From 18 to 24 January 2016 at imm cologne and LivingInteriors, a total of 1,185 companies from 50 countries presented the trends in furniture and furnishings for the coming year. Buyers from the trade with decisionmaking authority made for a dynamic trade fair during the first five days. With around 80,000 trade visitors from 128 countries, the event recorded a slight increase (4.8 percent) in trade fair visitor numbers compared to 2014. The proportion of visitors from abroad was 46 percent (based on the trade visitor days). The development in the number of visitors from overseas was positive, while the trade fair duo recorded an especially significant increase in the number of visitors from Europe.

"This outcome shows that imm cologne is unmatched as a business event for the global furniture and furnishings industry", said Gerald Böse, President and Chief Executive Officer of Koelnmesse, summing up the event.

"This is where the world comes together to do business, which offers a lot of new opportunities for export-oriented companies. At the same time, this fair duo has proved once again that business and creative inspiration are not mutually exclusive", Böse continued. "imm cologne was a wonderful furniture show and has got us off to a very successful start to the 2016 furniture year. With so many new products and ideas, innovations and great models in all price ranges, we are confident that the German furniture industry will achieve another increase in sales this year", added Dirk-Uwe Klaas, Managing Director of the Federal Association of the German Furniture Industry (VDM). This was confirmed by Hans Strothoff, President of the Federal Association of German Furniture, Kitchens and Furnishing Retailers (BVDM): "This year's imm cologne really stimulated a keen interest in furniture. Rarely has the mood in industry and trade been so positive as at this fair. Wherever you looked, only smiling faces and great optimism. imm cologne has really catapulted the industry into the new business year with a swing."

The atmosphere among visitors was characterised by business, networking and the search for trends. In the past few years, imm cologne has raised its international profile, not just among exhibitors, but also among visitors. 2016 saw a significant increase in buyers from Europe, primarily from the Netherlands, the United Kingdom, Spain and Austria. The event also registered a clear increase in the number of visitors from overseas, especially from the USA, China and India. Including estimated figures for the last fair day, a total of 120.000 visitors were inspired by the interior design worlds.

In addition to the products on show, the highlights of the 2016 trade fair once again included "Das Haus - Interiors on Stage", a walk-through simulation of a home, which was designed this year by Sebastian Herkner, and the "Smart Home" special exhibition at LivingInteriors, where numerous companies showcased solutions for a cleverly networked home that are already available today.

Trends at imm cologne/LivingInteriors 2016

Homes are becoming homier once again Cosiness and a feeling of security are increasingly important in the home. There is also a clear enthusiasm for new combinations. Along with furniture and decorations, accessories and home textiles that suit people's preferences when used individually are combined freely. The result is homes that are as unique as their inhabitants.

Mid-century design is booming
Across all product sectors, a striking number of furniture designs are reminiscent of those from the 1940s through the 1960s. These designs make efficient use of materials, have delicate features and are lightweight and above all smaller. The trend can be explained by the smaller living spaces available in city homes, though also by a general sense of nostalgia. Like an old friend, sleek mid-century furniture proves its value in uncertain times.

Natural materials are on the rise
Wood, glass, stone and metal: natural materials are particularly popular. In addition to the large proportion of wood used, for example in tabletops, chair and table frames, valuable natural stone is an increasingly common material in tabletops. Popular varieties include the European classic "marble" as well as exotic South American stone with particularly unique veining. The use of tree bark in wall decoration is another trend on the horizon.

The next imm cologne will be held from 16 through 22 January 2017 in Cologne - together with LivingKitchen, the international event for all topics related to the kitchen.