From the Sector

Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited, one of the world’s largest producers of recycled Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) resin, announced the completion of the expansion of its recycling facility in Brazil, supported by a ‘Blue Loan’ from the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank.

The recycling facility, located in Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil, is increasing its production capacity from 9 thousand tons to 25 thousand tons per year of PET made from post-consumer recycled (PET-PCR) material. The project is part of Indorama Ventures’ Vision 2030 ambition to continue building a sustainable global company, including spending $1.5 billion to increase its recycling capacity to 50 billion PET bottles per year by 2025.

PET is a unique and widely used plastic for water and soda bottles and the most recycled plastic in the world. Indorama Ventures, the world’s largest provider of recycled PET resin used to make beverage bottles, invested US$20 million to optimize its Brazil facility’s processes and acquire new equipment such as washing machines to help remove labels, grind bottles in water and reduce water consumption by 70%.

In November 2020, the IFC provided $300 million in Blue Loan funding to Indorama Ventures with the objective of increasing recycling capacity and diverting plastic waste from landfills and oceans in Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, India, and Brazil—countries which are grappling with mismanaged waste and serious plastic waste in the environment. Blue Loan funds are certified and tracked for projects that support sustainable use of ocean resources for economic growth, improved livelihoods and jobs, and ocean ecosystem health. Indorama Ventures has secured a total US$2.4 billion in long-term sustainable financing from various financial institutions between 2018–2022 to support sustainability projects.

• Revenue rose to EUR 2.57 bn, while EBITDA declined to EUR 241.9 mn
• Implementation of EUR 70 mn cost reduction program proceeding according to plan
• Largest investment program in the company’s history including the lyocell plant in Thailand and the pulp mill in Brazil implemented on time and within budget
• Outlook: Lenzing expects EBITDA in 2023 to be in a range of EUR 320 mn to EUR 420 mn

The Lenzing Group was increasingly affected by extreme developments on the global energy and raw material markets in the 2022 financial year, in tandem with most of manufacturing industry in Europe. The market environment also deteriorated significantly in the third and fourth quarters, while worsening consumer sentiment placed an additional burden on Lenzing’s business growth.

In the year under review, revenue increased by 16.9 percent year-on-year to reach EUR 2.57 bn, primarily as a result of higher fiber prices. The quantity of fiber sold decreased, while the quantity of pulp sold rose. In addition to lower demand, the earnings trend particularly reflects the increase in energy and raw material costs. Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) decreased by 33.3 percent year-on-year to EUR 241.9 mn in 2022. The net result for the year was minus EUR 37.2 mn (compared with EUR 127.7 mn in the 2021 financial year), while earnings per share stood at minus EUR 2.75 (compared with EUR 4.16 in the 2021 financial year).

Outlook
The war in Ukraine and the tighter monetary policy pursued by many central banks to combat inflation will continue to exert pressure on the global economy. The easing of China’s zero-Covid policy could lead to an unexpectedly rapid recovery. However, the IMF has warned that risks remain high overall and projects growth of 2.9 percent in 2023. Exchange rate volatility looks set to continue in regions that are important to Lenzing.

These challenging market conditions are also continuing to weigh on consumer confidence and sentiment in the sectors relevant to Lenzing. The outlook has improved slightly of late, with inventory levels returning to normal across the value chain. Nonetheless, subdued demand remains a source of concern for market players.

Inventories in the bellwether cotton market have diminished recently, although they remain above pre-pandemic levels. A decline in crops is foreseeable in the current 2022/2023 harvest season. The sharp rise in prices on the energy and raw material markets will continue to pose significant challenges for the market.

Overall, earnings visibility remains restricted.

In structural terms, Lenzing expects a continued rise in demand for environmentally friendly fibers in the textile and clothing industry, as well as in the hygiene and medical sectors. Thus, with its “Better Growth” strategy, Lenzing is very well positioned and will continue to drive growth in specialty products, while pursuing its sustainability targets including the transformation from a linear to a circular economy model.

In light of these factors and assuming a further market recovery in the current financial year, the Lenzing Group expects EBITDA in 2023 to be in a range of EUR 320 mn to EUR 420 mn.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

• Project delivered on schedule and at budget after two and a half years of construction despite challenges arising from a global pandemic
• New state-of-the-art lyocell plant with a capacity of 100,000 tons will help serve the growing demand for sustainably produced fibers
• Important milestone towards a carbon-free future has been set

The Lenzing Group is pleased to announce the completion of its key lyocell expansion project in Thailand. The new plant, one of the largest of its kind in the world with a nameplate capacity of 100,000 tons per year, started production on schedule and will help to even better meet the increasing customer demand for TENCEL™ branded lyocell fibers. For Lenzing, the project also represents an important step towards strengthening its leadership position in the specialty fiber market and into a carbon-free future.

The construction of the plant located at Industrial Park 304 in Prachinburi, around 150 kilometers northeast of Bangkok, started in the second half of 2019 and proceeded largely according to plan, despite the challenges arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. The recruiting and onboarding of new employees has been successful. Investments (CAPEX) amounted to approx. EUR 400 mn.

“The demand for our wood-based, biodegradable specialty fibers under the TENCEL™, LENZING™ ECOVERO™ and VEOCEL™ brands is growing very well. In Asia in particular, we see huge growth potential for our brands based on sustainable innovation. With the production start of the lyocell plant in Thailand, Lenzing reached an important milestone in its growth journey, supporting our ambitious goal to make the textile and nonwoven industries more sustainable”, said Robert van de Kerkhof, Member of the Managing Board.

In 2019, Lenzing made a strategic commitment to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions per ton of product by 50 percent by 2030. The target is to be climate-neutral by 2050. Due to the established infrastructure, the site in Thailand can be supplied with sustainable biogenic energy and contribute significantly to climate protection.

Together with the key project in Brazil and the substantial investments at the existing sites in Asia, Lenzing is currently implementing the largest investment program in its corporate history (with more than approx. EUR 1.5 bn). Lenzing will continue to drive the execution of its strategic projects, which are to make a significant contri-bution to earnings from 2022.