From the Sector

The launch of the third edition of the Imagining Sustainable Fashion Award started on October 27, 2022. The Imagining Sustainable Fashion Award (ISFA) is the international competition born out of the collaboration between Connecting Cultures, the foundation that guides the Out of Fashion platform, and C.L.A.S.S., an international eco-hub that since 2007 has been advocating for a new generation of fashion in which the union of design, innovation, communication, and responsibility shapes a conscious and competitive business, capable of playing both an economic and social role.

The Imagining Sustainable Fashion Award invites stylists, photographers, designers, illustrators and artists to create visual imagery, a project that highlights awareness, respect for people and the planet that define the values of sustainable fashion in the fashion system.

Award submissions will be examined by an international jury composed of:

• Anna Detheridge, Founder and President, Connecting Cultures
• Giusy Bettoni, CEO and Founder, C.L.A.S.S.
• Rita Airaghi, Steering Advisor, Gianfranco Ferré Research Center
• Paola Arosio, Head of New Brands & Sustainability Projects, Camera Nazionale della Moda Italiana
• Jeanine Ballone Managing Director, Fashion 4 Development
• Evie Evangelou, Founder and President, Fashion 4 Development
• Sara Kozlowski, Vice President of Program Strategies, Education, and Sustainability Initiatives, Council of Fashion Designers of America
• Dio Kurazawa, Founding Partner, The Bear Scouts
• Renata Molho, journalist, former editor-in-chief of L'Uomo Vogue and former editor-at-large of L'Uomo Vogue, Vogue Italia, Casa Vogue
• Stefania Ricci, Director, Museo Salvatore Ferragamo
• Jovana Vukoje, Senior New Brands Specialist, Camera Nazionale della Moda Italiana

The winning projects of past editions were Take a Walk on the Green Side by Emma Scalcon (2021 - Italy) and Fashion Affair by Vishal Tolambia (2022 - India), two very different works that highlighted how challenging sustainability issues are in the contemporary communication landscape.

The deadline for submissions is Wednesday, January 25, 2023.
The winner will be announced in March 2023 and will receive a cash prize of €3,000.00.

Autoneum Holding Ltd signed a new loan agreement with a syndicate of banks led by UBS and Credit Suisse on the 31st of October 2022. This loan agreement replaces with immediate effect the existing syndicated loan, which was due to run until December 31, 2022.

The credit line specified under the new agreement remains at CHF 350 million and includes a substantial financial reserve for the Company. The main provisions of the previous loan agreement also apply unchanged to the new loan agreement, which runs for five years until October 31, 2027.

“We are pleased to have concluded this loan agreement, which secures the Group’s long-term financing,” said Bernhard Wiehl, Chief Financial Officer at Autoneum. “It is also important to say at this point that Autoneum has managed to further strengthen its financial stability over the last three years despite the corona crisis and a challenging environment in the automotive industry. Positive cash flow development over the past two years has enabled Autoneum to continuously reduce net debt since 2020.”

With the syndicated loan, the Group’s liquidity and long-term financing continue to be sustainably secured through a broad-based syndicate of twelve banks.

AkzoNobel provides a Q3 update as high macro-economic uncertainty - especially in Europe and China - led to near historical low consumer confidence. In anticipation, customers and channel partners in the paints and coatings industry are proactively destocking in these regions.
 
The Q3 adjusted operating income is now expected to be in the range of €195 million to €215 million (2021: €241 million), excluding a retroactive impact from hyperinflation accounting regarding Türkiye.
 
Current demand trends are expected to continue in Q4, whilst benefits will come from the company’s own initiatives to reduce costs, improve working capital and ongoing pricing initiatives. While Q3 will see the highest raw material cost impact since the inflation cycle started early 2021, pricing will continue to offset raw material and freight inflation. Overall raw material supply is normalizing and raw material prices are starting to soften broadly.
 
Financial results for Q3 of 2022 will be announced on October 20.

In cooperation with Platte Berlin, deadHYPE, Visionary Services and the Fashion Council Germany, The Ground invited to the Studio2Retail block party in Mitte. 950 guests, including creatives, influencers and the young Gen-Z Berlin fashion scene, came together for the first time since The Ground premiered in July to exchange and celebrate change.

The community had the exclusive opportunity to buy the limited pieces of the MUST-HAVE PEACE charity collection, which the Premium Group team initiated to support the people suffering from the war in Ukraine.

The collection includes 22 special items of clothing and accessories from 11 brands and designers from the Premium Group cosmos, of which 100% of the proceeds go to Be an Angel.

Be an Angel e.V. is an initiative of people from creative industries who are committed to the sustainable integration of people with a refugee background. Under the direction of Chairman Andreas Tölke, the team has been working intensively for the people from Ukraine for weeks, organising trips to Germany for refugees from Moldova, activating a nationwide network for accommodation and supplying hospitals in Odessa, Kyiv and Lemberg with medicine.

Turkish company, Makroser Tekstil specialises in manufacturing digitally printed carpets and over the years has become one of the leading suppliers in the sector. Utilising Mimaki’s high-performance TS300P-1800 sublimation transfer printer since 2020, the company has optimised their production potential to meet increasing customer expectations in this growing digital textile carpet market.

Alongside carpets, the company also offers other solutions to the carpet industry by producing backing and other materials

Acting as both a seller and a supplier, Makroser Tekstil has an approximate monthly output of 150,000 square meters of final product and sells about 70-80,000 square meters of intermediate goods per month. “Our market has four main pillars, including chain market groups, export, e-commerce and our own retail network. We have gained serious momentum in the sales of our final products in recent years, and we attach great importance to our sales and marketing processes, in addition to production, so to increase our profitability. We are currently exporting 35-40% of our production, and our branding and e-commerce activities show that we are making significant improvements”, says Makroser Tekstil’s co-founder, Talha Güldest.

Makroser Tekstil decided to invest in a Mimaki TS300P-1800 sublimation transfer printer back in August 2020, with the aim to strengthen their position in the digitally printed carpet market. “The investment in the TS300P-1800 has enabled us to have the capacity to respond quickly to e-commerce orders,” Güldeste commented. “Product quality is the main criterion in the supplies we provide to both online and retail outlets. We made this investment because we saw that we would increase our quality and customer satisfaction in the carpets we print. The Mimaki printer met our expectations, providing the results we wanted from the very first print after installation.” Considering the increased demand, Güldeste aims to further boost their printing capacity with investment in several more Mimaki printers.

The Discover Natural Fibres Initiative DNFI published their statistical World Natural Fibre Update this month. The world production of natural fibres is estimated at 33.7 million tonnes in 2022, a slight increase compared with a preliminary 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

The DNFI Natural Fibre Composite Price dropped 2% in July 2022 to US 219 cents/kg, compared with US 223 cents the previous month. The DNFI Composite is an average of prices in major markets for cotton, wool, jute, silk, coir fibre, and sisal, converted to US$ per kilogram and weighted by shares of world production.

• The DNFI Composite was pulled downward primarily by a 9% decline in the Eastern Market Indicator of wool prices in Australia, which fell from US$ 10.27 per kilogram in June to US$9.38 in July.
• October cotton ICE futures (the nearby contract) finished July marginally lower, closing at 228 US cents per kilogram, compared with 229 at the end of June.
• Prices of jute fibre in India quoted by the Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of July were unchanged from a month earlier, but with depreciation of the Rupee versus the dollar, calculated prices fell from 84 cents to 82 cents per kilogram.
• Prices of silk in China equalled US$29.5 per kilogram in July 2022, coconut coir fibre in India held at US cents 21 per kilogram, and sisal in Brazil finished July at US cents 41 per kilogram.

Cotton prices were the highest in a decade during 2021/22, and world cotton production is estimated by the International Cotton Advisory Committee at 25.8 million tonnes during the 2022/23 season which began August 1, up from 25.4 million in the season just completed. Extreme drought in Texas, the largest producing state in the United States, is limiting the rise in world production that would otherwise be occurring.

World production of jute and allied fibres is estimated unchanged at 3.2 million tonnes in 2022 compared with 2021. High market prices in 2021 motivated farmers to expand planted area in both Bangladesh and India, but dry weather in jute-growing areas during June and July has undermined earlier optimistic hopes for yields. Rainfall was approximately half of normal in the city of Kolkata from early June to mid-July.

Production of coir fibre rose by an average of 18,000 tonnes per year during the past decade, and production was record high at 1.12 million tonnes in 2021. Production is expected to remain high in 2022.

Flax has also been trending upward, rising by an average of 27,000 tonnes per year, and production in 2022 is estimated to remain above one million tonnes.
World wool production is forecast up by 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. Wetter weather in the Southern Hemisphere, following eight years of drought, is allowing farmers to rebuild herds.

• Currency-neutral sales up 4%, despite more than € 300 million negative impact from macroeconomic constraints
• Markets representing more than 85% of the business grow 14% overall
• Gross margin down 1.5pp to 50.3% reflecting significantly higher supply chain costs
• Operating profit reaches € 392 million
• Net income from continuing operations amounts to € 360 million
• FY 2022 outlook reflects double-digit growth during the second half of the year

“Our Western markets continued to show strong momentum in the second quarter amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty. With Asia-Pacific returning to growth, markets combined representing more than 85% of our business grew at a double-digit rate,” said adidas CEO Kasper Rorsted. “With sports back at center stage this summer, revenues in our strategic growth categories Football, Running and Outdoor all increased by double digits. However, the macroeconomic environment, particularly in China, remains challenging. The recovery in this market is – due to continued covid-19-related restrictions – slower than expected. And we have to take into account a potential slowdown in consumer spending in all other markets for the remainder of the year.”

Currency-neutral revenues increase 4% despite macroeconomic constraints
In the second quarter, currency-neutral revenues increased 4% as adidas continued to see strong momentum in Western markets. This growth was achieved despite continued challenges on both supply and demand. Supply chain constraints as a result of last year’s lockdowns in Vietnam reduced top-line growth by around € 200 million in Q2 2022. In addition, the company’s decision to suspend its operations in Russia reduced revenues by more than € 100 million during the quarter. Continued covid-19-related lockdowns in Greater China also weighed on the top-line development in Q2. From a channel perspective, the top-line increase was to a similar extent driven by the company’s own direct-to-consumer (DTC) activities as well as increases in wholesale. Within DTC, e-commerce, which now represents more than 20% of the company’s total business, showed double-digit growth reflecting strong product sell-through. From a category perspective, revenue development was strongest in the company’s strategic growth categories Football, Running and Outdoor, which all grew at strong double-digit rates. In euro terms, revenues grew 10% to € 5.596 billion in the second quarter (2021: € 5.077 billion).

Strong demand in Western markets
Revenue growth in the second quarter was driven by Western markets despite last year’s lockdowns in Vietnam still reducing sales, particularly in EMEA and North America, by
€ 200 million in total. In addition, the top-line development in EMEA was also impacted by the loss of revenue in Russia/CIS of more than € 100 million. Nevertheless, currency-neutral sales grew 7% in the region. Revenues in North America increased 21% during the quarter driven by growth of more than 20% in both DTC and wholesale. Revenues in Latin America increased 37%, while Asia-Pacific returned to growth. Currency-neutral revenues increased 3% in this market despite still being impacted by limited tourism activity in the region. In contrast, the company continued to face a challenging market environment in Greater China, mainly related to the continued broad-based covid-19-related restrictions. As a result, currency-neutral revenues in the market declined 35% during the three-months period, in line with previous expectations. Excluding Greater China, currency-neutral revenues in the company’s other markets combined grew 14% in Q2.

Operating profit of € 392 million reflects operating margin of 7.0%
The company’s gross margin declined 1.5 percentage points to 50.3% (2021: 51.8%). Significantly higher supply chain costs and a less favorable market mix due to the significant sales decline in Greater China weighed on the gross margin development. This could only be partly offset by a higher share of full price sales, first price increases and the benefits from currency fluctuations. Other operating expenses were up 19% to € 2.501 billion (2021: € 2.107 billion). As a percentage of sales, other operating expenses increased 3.2 percentage points to 44.7% (2021: 41.5%). Marketing and point-of-sale expenses grew 8% to € 663 million (2021: € 616 million). The company continued to prioritize investments into the launch of new products such as adidas’ new Sportswear collection, the next iteration of its successful Supernova running franchise and first drops related to the Gucci collaboration as well as campaigns around major events like ‘Run for the Oceans.’ As a percentage of sales, marketing and point-of-sale expenses were down 0.3 percentage points to 11.8% (2021: 12.1%). Operating overhead expenses increased by 23% to a level of € 1.838 billion (2021:
€ 1.492 billion). This increase was driven by adidas’ continuous investments into DTC, its digital capabilities and the company’s logistics infrastructure as well as by unfavorable currency fluctuations. As a percentage of sales, operating overhead expenses increased 3.5 percentage points to 32.8% (2021: 29.4%). The company’s operating profit reached a level of € 392 million (2021: € 543 million), resulting in an operating margin of 7.0% (2021: 10.7%).

Net income from continuing operations reaches € 360 million
The company’s net income from continuing operations slightly declined to € 360 million (2021: € 387 million). This result was supported by a one-time tax benefit of more than € 100 million due to the reversal of a prior year provision. Consequently, basic EPS from continuing operations reached € 1.88 (2021: € 1.93) during the quarter.

Currency-neutral revenues on prior year level in the first half of 2022
In the first half of 2022, currency-neutral revenues were flat versus the prior year period. In euro terms, revenues grew 5% to € 10.897 billion in the first six months of 2022 (2021:
€ 10.345 billion). The company’s gross margin declined 1.7 percentage points to 50.1% (2021: 51.8%) during the first half of the year. While price increases as well as positive exchange rate effects benefited the gross margin, these developments were more than offset by the less favorable market mix and significantly higher supply chain costs. Other operating expenses increased to € 4.759 billion (2021: € 4.154 billion) in the first half of the year and were up 3.5 percentage points to 43.7% (2021: 40.2%) as a percentage of sales. adidas generated an operating profit of € 828 million (2021: € 1.248 billion) during the first six months of the year, resulting in an operating margin of 7.6% (2021: 12.1%). Net income from continuing operations reached € 671 million, reflecting a decline of € 219 million compared to the prior year level (2021: € 890 million). Accordingly, basic earnings per share from continuing operations declined to € 3.47 (2021: € 4.52).

Average operating working capital as a percentage of sales slightly decreases
Inventories increased 35% to € 5.483 billion (2021: € 4.054 billion) at June 30, 2022 in anticipation of strong revenue growth during the second half of the year. Longer lead times as well as the challenging market environment in Greater China also contributed to the increase. On a currency-neutral basis, inventories were up 28%. Operating working capital increased 23% to € 5.191 billion (2021: € 4.213 billion). On a currency-neutral basis, operating working capital was up 14%. Average operating working capital as a percentage of sales decreased 0.4 percentage points to 21.0% (2021: 21.4%), reflecting an overproportional increase in accounts payable due to higher sourcing volumes and product costs.

Adjusted net borrowings at € 5.301 billion
Adjusted net borrowings amounted to € 5.301 billion at June 30, 2022, representing a year-over-year increase of € 2.155 billion (June 30, 2021: € 3.146 billion). This development was mainly due to the significant decrease in cash and cash equivalents.

FY 2022 outlook reflects double-digit growth during the second half of the year
On July 26, adidas adjusted its guidance for FY 2022 due to the slower-than-expected recovery in Greater China since the start of the third quarter resulting from continued widespread covid-19-related restrictions. adidas now expects currency-neutral revenues for the total company to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit rate in 2022 (previously: at the lower end of the 11% to 13% range), reflecting a double-digit decline in Greater China (previously: significant decline). While so far the company did not experience a meaningful slowdown in the sell-through of its products or significant cancellations of wholesale orders in any market other than Greater China, the adjusted guidance also accounts for a potential slowdown of consumer spending in those markets during the second half of the year as a result of the more challenging macroeconomic conditions. Therefore, growth in EMEA is now expected to be in the low teens (previously: mid-teens growth), while revenues in Asia-Pacific are projected to grow at a high-single-digit rate (previously: mid-teens growth). Despite the more conservative view on the development of consumer spending in the second half of the year, adidas has increased its forecasts for North America and Latin America reflecting the strong momentum the brand is enjoying in these markets. In North America, currency-neutral revenues are now expected to increase in the high teens. Sales in Latin America are projected to grow between 30% and 40% (both previously: mid- to high-teens growth).   

Due to the less favorable market mix and the impacts from initiatives to clear excess inventories in Greater China until the end of the year, gross margin is now expected to reach a level of around 49.0% (previously: around 50.7%) in 2022. Consequently, the company’s operating margin is now forecast to be around 7.0% (previously: around 9.4%) and net income from continuing operations is expected to reach a level of around € 1.3 billion (previously: at the lower end of the € 1.8 billion to € 1.9 billion range).

adidas is adjusting its outlook for the financial year 2022. While second quarter results were somewhat ahead of expectations reflecting continued strong momentum in Western markets and a return to growth in Asia-Pacific, the company has been experiencing a slower-than-expected recovery in its business in Greater China since the start of the third quarter. Previously, the company had assumed that in absence of any major lockdowns as of Q3, currency-neutral revenues in the region would be flat during the second half of the year versus the prior year level. However, given the continued widespread covid-19-related restrictions, adidas now expects revenues in Greater China to decline at a double-digit rate during the remainder of the year.

As a result, adidas now expects currency-neutral revenues for the total company to grow at a mid- to high-single-digit rate in 2022 (previously: at the lower end of the 11% – 13% range). Because of the less favorable market mix due to lower-than-expected revenues in Greater China as well as the impact from initiatives to clear excess inventories in this market until the end of the year, the company’s gross margin is now expected to be around 49.0% in 2022 (previously: around 50.7%). Consequently, the company’s operating margin is now forecasted to be around 7.0% in 2022 (previously: around 9.4%) and net income from continuing operations is expected to reach a level of around € 1.3 billion (previously: at the lower end of the € 1.8 billion – € 1.9 billion range).

So far, the company did not experience a meaningful slowdown in the sell-through of its products or significant cancellations of wholesale orders in any other market. Nevertheless, the adjusted guidance also accounts for a potential slowdown of consumer spending in these markets during the second half of the year as a result of the more challenging macroeconomic conditions.

Despite these headwinds, adidas continues to expect double-digit revenue growth during the second half of the year for the total company. In addition to easier prior year comparables, the acceleration will be driven by adidas’ strong product pipeline, the restocking opportunity with its wholesale customers given unconstrained supply as well as the support from major sporting events.

Based on preliminary numbers, adidas’ currency-neutral revenues grew 4% during the second quarter. This increase was driven by strong double-digit growth in North America and Latin America, high-single-digit growth in EMEA (also double-digit growth excluding negative Russia/CIS impact) as well as a return to growth in Asia-Pacific. In euro terms, sales increased 10% to € 5.596 billion. The company’s gross margin declined 1.5 percentage points to a level of 50.3% and operating margin reached 7.0% during the second quarter (2021: 10.7%). Net income from continuing operations was € 360 million in Q2 (2021: € 387 million) supported by a one-time tax benefit of more than € 100 million due to the reversal of a prior year provision.

Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL) announced that construction of an integrated PTA-PET plant in Corpus Christi, Texas, will resume in August this year. Corpus Christi Polymers LLC (CCP), a partnership between three companies, is expected to begin production in 2025 and ensure continued cost-competitive production to support the growth of IVL’s global PET operations into the next decade.

CCP was formed in 2018 as a joint venture between Indorama Ventures Corpus Christi Holdings LLC, a subsidiary of Indorama Ventures; DAK Americas LLC, a subsidiary of Alpek S.A.B. de C.V.; and APG Polytech USA Holdings, Inc, a subsidiary of Far Eastern New Century, following the purchase of a partially constructed facility of M&G Resins in Corpus Christi. Each partner will procure its own raw materials and receive one third of the PTA and PET produced at the facility to sell and distribute independently.

Construction of the plant is resuming following a period of pandemic-related disruptions. Through the pandemic, the partners firmly resolved to continue planning amid continued robust demand for PET packaging and the need for shorter supply chains. As the impact of the pandemic eased in 2022, the management team was strengthened in preparation for the resumption in activities.

CCP is expected to be the largest vertically integrated PTA-PET production plant in the Americas, and IVL’s biggest greenfields project in the U.S. since the development of the AlphaPet production facility at Decatur, Alabama in 2009. The new Texas facility is a significant addition to IVL’s leading global footprint, and will expand its coverage to customers across the U.S. The plant’s vertical integration optimizes PTA-PET production and, together with the availability of raw materials Paraxylene and Mono Ethylene Glycol in the U.S., ensures long-term competitive-cost supply for IVL’s locally integrated polyester value chain.

The facility will have nominal annual capacities of 1.1 million metric tons of PET and 1.3 million metric tons of PTA, shared between the partners. It will employ three state-of-the-art technologies: PTA: IntegRex®, PET melt: Invista, and PET solid state: Easy Up (HCIRR – Horizontal Continuous slightly Inclined Rotary Reactor).

CCP is adding to its leadership team to prepare for the new growth opportunities. Mr Russell Wilson will leave his role with IVL as Head of Manufacturing Americas, Combined PET, to take up a new role as Chief Executive Officer of CCP from 18 July. He brings 30 years of Aromatics and PET leadership experience including prior roles with Amoco and BP before joining IVL. Mr Todd Hogue, IVL’s Global Head of EH&S, replaces Mr Wilson as IVL’s representative on CCP’s Board. Mr Michael Day joined CCP as Project Director in June and brings 34 years of construction leadership experience including senior roles with Bilfinger, KBR, and CB&I.  Mr Jeff Shea will assume the role of Chief Operating Officer on 18 July.  Mr Shea has been in the PET industry for the last 22 years and has managed PET sites for the last 17. 

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.