From the Sector

Indorama Ventures Public Company Limited (IVL) and Carbios, a biotech company developing and industrializing biological solutions to reinvent the life cycle of plastic and textiles, announce the signing of a non-binding Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to form a Joint Venture for the construction of the world’s first PET biorecycling plant in France.  

Based on and subject to the comprehensive terms set out in the MOU, Indorama Ventures plans to mobilize about €110 million for the Joint Venture in equity and non-convertible loan financing , pending final engineering documentation and final economic feasibility studies. Both parties have acknowledged their mutual support for the implementation of the project and their intent to finalize contract documentation before end 2023.

Subject to the successful performance of this first plant in France, Indorama Ventures confirms its intention to potentially expand the technology to other PET sites for future developments.

Under the agreement signed June 1, Carbios, which filed for plant permitting in December 2022, should acquire 13ha land from Indorama Ventures’ existing PET plant at Longlaville and expects to be granted permits by Q3 2023, allowing start of construction by end of 2023 and targeted commissioning in 2025.  The land surface offers the possibility to double capacity. Pursuant to this MOU, Indorama Ventures shall ensure 100% of output repolymerization and both partners shall collaborate to secure feedstock supply.

The total capital investment for the new plant is re-estimated to be around €230 million, taking into account recent impact from inflation. Project costs shall be financed by the sums mobilized by Indorama Ventures, the French State and Grand-Est Region subsidies available for the project , and by equity capitalization of the Joint Venture by Carbios. Part of Carbios’ equity injection into the Joint Venture shall be financed by a portion of Carbios’ current cash position (i.e. €86 million as of 30 April 2023). Carbios is actively examining the best options to finance its remaining equity injection into the Joint Venture and will choose the most appropriate solution and timeline based on market conditions.

The project is part of Indorama Ventures’ Vision 2030 ambition to build on its leadership as a global sustainable chemical company. The company’s ESG commitments include spending $1.5 billion to increase its recycling capacity to 50 billion PET bottles per year by 2025 and 100 billion bottles per year by 2030. To meet these goals, Indorama Ventures, the world’s largest producer of recycled PET resin used in beverage bottles, is investing in new recycling technologies, including advanced recycling, in addition to expanding its global footprint of mechanical recycling sites, including two in France.

Carbios has developed a disruptive enzymatic depolymerization technology that enables efficient and solvent-free recycling of PET plastic and textile waste into virgin-like products with an aim to achieve true circularity. Carbios has ambitious plans to become a leading technology provider in advanced recycling of PET by 2035. After successful ongoing operations in its demonstration plant in Clermont-Ferrand in France, Carbios has been collaborating with Indorama Ventures for over a year to assess the commercial and technical feasibility of the technology. The world’s first industrial-scale enzymatic PET recycling plant at Longlaville will have a capacity to process about 50,000 tons of post-consumer PET waste per year, including waste that is not recyclable mechanically, equivalent to 2 billion PET colored bottles or 2.5 billion PET trays.

INDA announced the program for the World of Wipes® (WOW) International Conference, July 17-20, Atlanta, Georgia. Key topics include: Plastics policy: closing the “intention-action” gap, sustainable manufacturing practices, what consumers think about sustainability and how they are driving cultural change, supply chain transparency, wipes advancements, flushability developments, and a special CEO panel sharing their organizations’ approach to inflation, supply chain challenges, and capacity/demand balance.

Among the leading organizations presenting at this year’s event are: Berry Global, Birla Cellulose, Bringabouts, Bureau Veritas, Diamond Wipes, Freudenberg Performance Materials, Glatfelter, Goodwipes, Kimberly-Clark Corporation, National Cotton Council, Mango Consulting, Plastics Industry Association, Rockline Industries, Sharon Laboratories, and Trützschler Nonwovens. Program and speaker details are available on the WOW website.

Two new features at WOW this year are Lightning Talks and Lunch Around. Lightning Talks are an opportunity for tabletop exhibitors to highlight their innovations in “supersized elevator speeches” to WOW participants. Lightning Talks will take place before the tabletop exhibits open Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The Lunch Around opportunity connects participants and thought leaders from the wipes industry at select downtown Atlanta restaurants on Tuesday and Wednesday. Space is limited and is first-come, first-served.

WOW kicks off with the WIPES Academy, a comprehensive course including elements of market research, materials, chemistry, converting, and regulatory filing. This course has been redeveloped to include all aspects of wipes development from concept to commercialization. The WIPES Academy is led by Heidi Beatty, Chief Executive Officer, and Paul Davies, Ph.D., Consultant, Crown Abbey LLC. Ms. Beatty and Mr. Davies bring decades of practical experience to give participants real-world solutions for product development challenges and tools to improve processes.

In view of the drastic deterioration of the market environment in the current quarter, the Lenzing Group suspends its guidance for the development of earnings in the 2022 financial year.

The further course of the 2022 financial year can only be estimated to a limited extent due to the extremely low visibility on the demand side and the high volatility of energy and raw material costs.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

The Indorama Mobility Group, a manufacturer of industrial fibers, cords and fabrics, - like other companies - is confronted with significant inflation since the beginning of the year. The global economy has gradually recovered in 2021 from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, but is still experiencing very volatile market conditions: The global freight remains unreliable and expensive, cost for energy and global commodities is increasing, and the increasing focus on sustainability and environmental impact is driving compliance cost upward in most part of the world.

In detail:

• Utilities: gas price has tripled in the past few months in Europe (from a level of 15 EUR/MWh in Q4’20 to 45 EUR/MWh recently), while increasing by 50% in USA
• CO₂ emissions and compliance cost: prices for CO₂ certificates in Europe have almost doubled, approaching 60 EUR/ton from 30 EUR/ton at the end of last year, while regulations continue to expand the need for CO2 compensation
• Chemicals and additives (spinfinish, dip chemicals, coating & laminating chemicals): cost have increased by 5%
• Packaging: prices for standard packaging materials have increased by more than 30%
• Logistic: despite our local manufacturing footprint which is not fully affected by global freight issues, the regional logistic costs are also increasing up to 20% (road transport)

Despite constant efforts to optimise the cost structure through comprehensive initiatives to improve operations, cost increases have now reached a level, the group said, that can no longer be offset and must be passed on to the market. This is a necessary step to be able to continue supplying high-quality products and services of the broad product portfolio, it said.