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20.01.2023

NCTO and USINFI tell Biden Administration Penalty Tariffs counteract China’s Unfair Trade Advantage

The Biden administration’s Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished textiles and apparel counteract China’s unfair trade advantages and give U.S. manufactures a chance to compete, two key American textile manufacturing groups told the Biden administration. Removing tariffs, the associations said, would reward China, put U.S. manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage and do nothing to reduce inflation.

In a formal submission to the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office, which is conducting a four-year statutory review of the tariffs, the associations, representing the entirety of the U.S. textile production chain, expressed strong support for the continuation of current Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished textiles and apparel imports from China and outlined the effectiveness of U.S. tariff actions.

The Biden administration’s Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished textiles and apparel counteract China’s unfair trade advantages and give U.S. manufactures a chance to compete, two key American textile manufacturing groups told the Biden administration. Removing tariffs, the associations said, would reward China, put U.S. manufacturers at a competitive disadvantage and do nothing to reduce inflation.

In a formal submission to the U.S. Trade Representative’s (USTR) office, which is conducting a four-year statutory review of the tariffs, the associations, representing the entirety of the U.S. textile production chain, expressed strong support for the continuation of current Section 301 penalty tariffs on finished textiles and apparel imports from China and outlined the effectiveness of U.S. tariff actions.

“In some cases, such as on finished apparel, the tariffs have worked to partially offset and counteract China’s unfair trade advantages,” the groups said. “The tariffs on finished textile and apparel items are giving U.S. manufacturers the chance to compete, and we are seeing encouraging investment and growth in moving some production and souring from China back to the Western Hemisphere.”

“The CAFTA-DR [Dominican Republic-Central America Free Trade Agreement] region has seen more than $1 billion in new textile and apparel investment this year, for example, which is historic and due to the textile and apparel rules negotiated under the agreement and sourcing shifts from China,” they added. “This investment and growing U.S. imports from the Western Hemisphere is attributable in part to the 301 tariffs on finished apparel.  The tariffs on finished items in our sector are broadly supported by textile/apparel producers in the hemispheric co-production chain, and it is essential that they remain in place, absent China reforming its practices.”

The submission was filed by the National Council of Textile Organizations (NCTO) and the U.S. Industrial and Narrow Fabrics Institute (USINFI), a division of the Advanced Textiles Association (AFA).

The groups have long advocated for a fair, transparent process to remove tariffs on textile machinery, certain chemicals and dyes and limited textile inputs that cannot be sourced domestically to help U.S. manufacturers compete against China.

They also stressed that lifting the tariffs on finished textiles and apparel products from China “will solidify their global dominance in this sector for generations to come and reward their abusive behaviors, exacerbate the migration crisis, hurt domestic manufacturers and workers, undermine our ability to recalibrate essential PPE supply chains, and blunt the positive supply chains shifts and investments in the Western Hemisphere that are happening.” They added it would “do nothing to solve the inflation crisis facing U.S. consumers and manufacturers right now.”

See the full submission here.

Source:

National Council of Textile Organizations

Photo: Pixabay
15.08.2022

Cotton prices outlook

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

More information:
Cotton Inc. cotton
Source:

Cotton Inc.

Foto: Pixabay
09.08.2022

McKinsey: An Bekleidung und Schuhen wird gespart

  • Sorge vor steigenden Preisen verfestigt sich

Laut einer aktuellen McKinsey-Umfrage bereiten die rasch steigenden Preise den Konsument:innen zurzeit die größte Sorge, die Corona-Pandemie spielt kaum noch eine Rolle. Rund 48% der Befragten geben an, ihre größte Sorge sei aktuell die Inflation - ein deutlicher Zuwachs gegenüber dem April.
 
„Die Sorge der Konsumenten vor weiteren Preissteigerungen verfestigt sich“, sagt der McKinsey-Partner Marcus Jacob. Die Angst vor dem Ukraine-Krieg ist dagegen in den vergangenen Monaten geringer geworden. Hatte noch im April jeder dritte Befragte (34%) die Invasion der Ukraine als größte Sorge bezeichnet, so tat dies im Juni nur noch jeder Vierte (24%). Trotz der aktuell hohen Infektionszahlen nannten nur 4% die Corona-Pandemie als größte Sorge.

  • Sorge vor steigenden Preisen verfestigt sich

Laut einer aktuellen McKinsey-Umfrage bereiten die rasch steigenden Preise den Konsument:innen zurzeit die größte Sorge, die Corona-Pandemie spielt kaum noch eine Rolle. Rund 48% der Befragten geben an, ihre größte Sorge sei aktuell die Inflation - ein deutlicher Zuwachs gegenüber dem April.
 
„Die Sorge der Konsumenten vor weiteren Preissteigerungen verfestigt sich“, sagt der McKinsey-Partner Marcus Jacob. Die Angst vor dem Ukraine-Krieg ist dagegen in den vergangenen Monaten geringer geworden. Hatte noch im April jeder dritte Befragte (34%) die Invasion der Ukraine als größte Sorge bezeichnet, so tat dies im Juni nur noch jeder Vierte (24%). Trotz der aktuell hohen Infektionszahlen nannten nur 4% die Corona-Pandemie als größte Sorge.

Die steigenden Preise haben der Umfrage zufolge bereits spürbare Auswirkungen auf den Alltag vieler Menschen. „Die große Mehrheit - 73% - hat das Einkaufsverhalten bereits verändert, um zu sparen“, so Marcus Jacob. So landen häufiger die Eigenmarken der Handelsketten in den Einkaufswagen. Statt im Supermarkt oder im Fachgeschäft wird häufiger beim Discounter eingekauft. „Dieser Trend beschleunigt sich“.

Während mehr Geld für Benzin und Lebensmittel ausgegeben werden muss, wird außerdem bei nicht essentiellen Ausgaben wie beispielsweise Bekleidung, Schuhen, aber auch Möbel oder Elektronik gespart. 59% der Befragten geben an, sie würden inzwischen genauer auf den eigenen Energieverbrauch achten.

More information:
Umfrage McKinsey Inflation
Source:

McKinsey&Company