From the Sector

The fashion industry, which has strategic importance for the Turkish economy with its value-added production, employment, and exports, came together with representatives of global brands and Laison offices at the 'Green transformation' summit. At the meeting hosted by the Istanbul Apparel Exporters' Association (IHKIB), the studies carried out in the process of adaptation to the Green Deal were put under the spotlight, and the expectations of the Turkish fashion industry from the stakeholders were also expressed.

The opening of the meeting, attended by representatives of relevant ministries and foreign representations, national and international fund providers, as well as brands and buying groups were brought together, was made by Türkiye Exporters Assembly (TIM) and IHKIB President Mustafa Gültepe. In his speech, Gültepe underlined Türkiye's importance in the global apparel industry, by realizing approximately 3.5 percent of world apparel exports. Gültepe continued as follows:

"As IHKIB, we aim to increase our current annual exports, which are around $20 billion, to $40 billion. The road to the goal goes through Europe and America because the European Union is our largest market in apparel. We export 60 percent of our total apparel exports to EU countries. When we add other European countries and the USA, the ratio approaches 75 percent. While working on alternatives for the $40 billion in exports, we need to focus more on the European and U.S. markets because, as the data shows, the path to $40 billion in apparel exports goes through Europe and the U.S. We already have long-standing collaborations with brands centered in Europe and America. With our knowledge, speed, production quality, design power, and geographical proximity to Europe, we distinguish ourselves from competitors. We took a very important step in the transformation process exactly one year ago. We shared our action plan, which is a road map for our fashion industry's compliance with the Green Deal, with the public on January 30, 2023."

After Mustafa Gültepe's opening speech, Euratex Director General Dirk Vantyghem, Deputy Director General of the Ministry of Trade Bahar Güçlü, and Deputy Secretary General of ITKIB Özlem Güneş made presentations regarding the ongoing efforts in the Green Deal process.

Dirk Vantyghem discussed the sustainability strategy of the textile and apparel industry and the expectations from the EU administration, while Bahar Güçlü provided information about the reflections of legal regulations related to the Green Deal on Türkiye.

Deputy Secretary General of ITKIB Özlem Güneş emphasized the significant opportunity that the Green Deal represents for the Turkish apparel industry, providing comprehensive insights into the efforts conducted by IHKIB regarding the Green Deal adaptation process.

Mahlo GmbH + Co. KG will participate in the Colombiatex textile show, held in Medellin from 23 to 25 January. This year, Mahlo will be joining forces with Brückner Textile Technologies to present their solutions for the textile production sector at their joint booth.

Both companies appreciate the power of Colombia’s textile industry. Textile is one of the most important industrial sectors in the Latin American country with an export value of clothing of more than 600 million US dollars. The United States are also the main export destination for apparel products. At Colombiatex 2024, Mahlo's Head of Sales, Thomas Höpfl, will be present to share insights and discuss how Mahlo’s innovative technologies can address the specific challenges faced by Colombian textile manufacturers. Sustainability of process efficiency being among the most pressing ones.

This year’s edition of ITMA ASIA + CITME proved to be a success for the exhibiting VDMA member companies. Measured by booked square metres, Germany had the largest contingent, among the foreign exhibitors. More than 40 VDMA member companies were exhibiting their innovative products in Shanghai.

Dr. Janpeter Horn, chairman of the VDMA Textile Machinery Association noted: “Although facing a difficult market situation, this year’s edition of ITMA ASIA + CITME has exceeded the expectations, both in terms of the number of visitors and the quality of the talks. The significant number of foreign visitors to the fair was particularly pleasing.”

Solutions were demonstrated for more sustainable textile productions by most of the exhibitors, and here the VDMA members presented their technologies for saving water, energy and raw materials under the heading “Smart technologies for green textile production.”  

Dr. Uwe Rondé, CEO, Saurer Intelligent Technology AG explained: “Saurer is satisfied with both the number of visitors and the quality of the discussions. Our booth was full from morning to evening with customers focused on latest technologies within the three mega trends: recycling, automation and digitalisation. Although machine utilisation in the spinning mills is still well below average, people are already gathering information and thinking about what to invest in once the market recovers.”

Benjamin Reiners, owner of Reiners + Fürst stated: „This year’s ITMA ASIA + CITME has exceeded our expectations by far. Especially the first day - a Sunday - has brought many high-quality customers and exclusively decision makers to our booth. We estimate about 20% international customers mainly from Bangladesh, Egypt, India, Iran, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Vietnam. All customers agreed that the market situation at the moment is difficult, capacity usage is between 50-75% in the ring spinning sector and improvement is expected not before the 2nd half of 2024. Nevertheless the general spirit is very positive.“

“This ITMA ASIA was a great success for Trützschler. We welcomed a large number of Chinese visitors to our booth, as well as a significant number of interested international visitors”, said Dr. Bettina Temath, Head of Global Marketing Trützschler Group SE.

Georg Stausberg, CEO of the polymer processing solutions division and chief sustainability officer of the Oerlikon Group stated: „We can look back on a successful show where we were able to meet many of our customers not only from China, but also from Pakistan, India and Indonesia, for example.”

“A very well-attended trade fair, with interesting discussions, great innovative topics, in line with the modern and rapidly developing China" noted Wolfgang Schöffl, head of product line weaving machines and member of the extended management, Lindauer Dornier.

The VDMA Textile Machinery Association and VDMA China were present at the fair, to support the members e.g. with regard to IPR. With the help of a VDMA expert and a contracted law firm, the member company Sahm submitted a complaint application for patent infringement disputes during the exhibition to the onsite IPR office. Both parties, Sahm, and the Chinese company, that used patented design without permission reached an agreement: The Chinese company had to stop displaying functions and designs involving patent infringement on site which meant the removal of some structural parts and the covering of key components protected by patent protection.

Dr. Harald Weber, managing director of VDMA Textile Machinery concluded: “Asia, and China in particular, represent the primary foreign markets for the VDMA member companies in the sector. The Chinese market is the main destination for their exports. Other major export destinations in Asia include India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Uzbekistan. ITMA ASIA + CITME provides a unique platform to showcase technologies for customers directly in Asia. The VDMA member companies are looking forward to the coming edition of the fair from 14 to 18 October 2024 in Shanghai.”

The latest survey of VDMA members' subsidiaries in China gives reason to hope that the economic situation in the Chinese textile industry could also improve significantly in the second half of the year. In addition, European textile machinery manufacturers are urged to be present on the most important market and at the trade fair and to offer Asian customers most advanced technology for their demanding challenges.

On 5th September 2023, the Amsterdam: Best of Bangladesh Europe’ started in the venue of Wastergas in Amsterdam. The 2-day nation branding event was organized by Bangladesh Apparel Exchange (BAE), with support from the Embassy of Bangladesh, Ministry of Commerce, Export Promotion Bureau (EPB) of Bangladesh and in association with PDS.

Tipu Munshi, MP, Commerce Minister, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh; Michiel Sweers, Vice Minister of Foreign Economic Relations, Kingdom of the Netherlands; Shahriar Alam, MP, State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh; Md Siddiqur Rahman,  Former president of BGMEA; M Riaz Hamidullah, Ambassador of Bangladesh to the Netherlands; Leslie Johnston, Chief Executive Officer, Laudes Foundation; Pallak Seth, Founder & Vice Chairman, PDS Limited; and Mostafiz Uddin, Founder & CEO, Bangladesh Apparel Exchange; attended the inaugural ceremony of the ‘Best of Bangladesh’.

Three MoU were signed in the inaugural for the development of the industries of Bangladesh.
The 1st MoU was signed between Bangladesh Apparel Exchange and Eindhoven International Project Office (EIPO). The 2nd MoU was signed between Bangladesh Apparel Exchange and Apparel Impact Institution. The 3rd MoU was signed between Bangladesh Apparel Exchange and Oxfam.
More than 35 companies from various fields, including apparel, textiles, agriculture, handicrafts, and other sectors, participated in the initiative.

The event held six interactive panel sessions on the topics "Bangladesh – Perspectives from an Emerging Economy", "Sustainable Sourcing Realities: Challenges, Achievements & Next Steps”, “Empowering the Future: Advancing Safety & Well-being for Garments Workforce in Bangladesh", "Bangladesh Agro-Food: A Next Opportunity for Collaboration", "Impact Investing - The Next Frontier", and “Sustainable Synergy: Circular Economy, Climate Action & Bangladesh’s Future".

A Bangladesh Innovation Runway was presented by Pacific Jeans at the event. The Bangladesh Innovation Runway showcased the ability of the country in producing high end, sustainable and innovative apparel products.

To ensure that our four-legged pets are looked after in terms of product safety, quality and durability of their cuddly blankets, cushions or favorite toys, the testing service provider Hohenstein has established its quality label Tested Pet Supplies. In May 2023, Markus Tiemann, Hohenstein Global Head of Retail, had the pleasure of handing over the first quality certificate of its kind to Bernd Brunssen, Head of Quality Assurance at Carstensen Import Export Handelsgesellschaft mbH, located near Hamburg.

The bar for quality products is set high at the globally networked importer and distributor, and the company accordingly commissioned product-testing with Hohenstein testing laboratory from its existing range of dog cushions, toys for dogs and cats, pet transport boxes and food balls for dogs and cats.

The label is designed for the entire range in pet supplies, from chew toys to pet beds, with special attention to the high requirements for textiles. It provides consumers with clear product information on product safety, quality and durability, and also offers pets and their owners security against unwanted residues of chemical substances. Markus Tiemann adds, "To ensure that our four-legged darlings feel completely at ease, we can, depending on the intended use also include additional tests for example chew resistance, scratch resistance, outdoor suitability, water repellency, waterproofness or air permeability and include these in the claim, alongside standard tests."

Since 1 April 2023 sales and service of Mayer & Cie. circular knitting machines in Bangladesh have been under new management. A new dynamic team “Mayer Bangladesh” has been formed. Mayer & Cie.’s longstanding Indian representative Batliboi has joined business activities in Bangladesh since the beginning of the month, supported by the team of Brady Services and by Almani Biz.

In Batliboi, Mayer & Cie. has set up a business partner of many decades standing as its representative in Bangladesh. For around 40 years Mumbai-based Batliboi has overseen sales and service of Mayer & Cie. circular knitting machines in India. Abhay Sidham heads Batliboi’s Textile and Machinery Group. He and his team have many years of experience in strategic marketing, and a focus on sustainability and processing recycled raw materials is part of Batliboi’s expertise.

These competences are of relevance in the Bangladesh market because “we face strong competition from Asian manufacturers here,” as Wolfgang Müller, Mayer & Cie.’s sales director, explains. The premium market was growing smaller, and the trend was toward specialities – value-added fabrics, spacer fabrics and athleisure with a high proportion of elastic. Mayer & Cie. sees in these requirements significant potential for its machines – and in Batliboi a partner able in view of its experience to put them to optimal use.

One building block in the set-up of Mayer & Cie. representatives is unchanged. Brady Services will continue with Batliboi to contribute its close ties with the local market. A significant number of existing companies will continue to be looked after by Brady Services.

The new member in Mayer Bangladesh team is Dhaka-based Almani Biz. A lubricants specialist for circular knitting machines Almani Biz has a wide network with Bangladesh knitting industry.

Mayer & Cie. feels well positioned by this new set-up. “We,” Wolfgang Müller says, “are of the opinion that the market for textile machinery in Bangladesh will continue to grow and we are confident that by strengthening our sales, service and marketing team we will be able to make good use of this opportunity.”

Customers in Bangladesh have placed large orders in the past. The latest, placed in January, was for several dozen machines to be delivered this autumn. Further orders from Apex and BEXIMCO (Bangladesh Export Import Company) are also scheduled for delivery in the second half of 2023.

While reorganising the set-up of its representatives in Bangladesh Batliboi has also taken over as Mayer & Cie.’s representative in Nepal, where the company had previously had no local representative. There is a demand for machines for interlock, 8-lock and single jersey, but sales are still in single figures.

Price Trends

• The nearby cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was down just 1% in December and closed the year at $1.84 per kilogram. A year earlier, the March contract closed at $2.30 per kilogram.  
  
  Cotton futures have been inverted for nearly three years because of supply chain disruptions that prevented normal on-time deliveries of international shipments. With the easing of container shortages and increased sailings, cotton futures are gradually reverting to the normal pattern in which contracts for forward delivery exceed nearby contracts by the cost of insurance, storage and interest between delivery months. The May and July 2023 contracts also finished 2022 at $1.84 per kilogram. In November, the May and July contracts were each several cents per kilogram lower than the March contract.
• The Eastern Market Indicator of prices for fine wool in Australia rose 9% in December to US$9.06 per kilogram. A year earlier, the EMI was $9.66. Australian analysts note that sheep for meat, cattle, and grain production, are competing alternatives for the use of land, and wool prices must continue upward if production is to be maintained in 2023.
• Prices quoted by the Indian Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of December converted to US$ fell 2% from a month earlier to an average of 74 cents per kilogram. The decline occurred entirely because of a weakening exchange rate. Prices in Rupee rose marginally. A year earlier, quoted prices averaged 84 cents per kilogram. The 16-percent decline year-on-year was caused about equally by a decline in quoted prices in Rupee and a weakening of the exchange rate.  
  
  The Indian jute industry is almost entirely focused on domestic demand, while half of total demand in Bangladesh comes from exports. Because of shortages of higher quality jute, export prices in Bangladesh are reportedly rising.
  (https://www.wgc.de/en/produkte/jute)
  
  India extended the anti-dumping duty at the end of December on jute and jute products imported from Bangladesh and Nepal for a period of five years. Bangladesh had urged the Indian government not to accept recommendations for extension, while the Indian industry was lobbying to ensure the duty remained in place. The duty rates range from approximately $6 per tonne at current exchange rates for low-quality fibres to $350 per tonne for finished products. The duty was originally imposed in January 2017 and was to expire at the end of 2022.
• Prices of silk in China rose 2% during December to US$28.0 per kilogram. Prices in yuan fell marginally during the month, but the RMB rose 3% against the USD. Prices of textile-grade silk in China were essentially unchanged at the end of 2022 compared with the end of 2021. However, prices closed 2022 about 40% above the average level pre-Covid. https://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-322.html and  https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/raw-silk-price-index/ .
• Coconut coir fibre in India quoted in US$ remained in a narrow range, averaging $0.205 per kilogram in December. Prices in Rupee have been stable, and changes in dollar prices reflect changes in the exchange rate.

 
Production
 
World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated as of early January at 32 million tonnes, approximately one million below production in 2021 and down 900,000 tonnes compared with the estimate in early December.

World cotton production is estimated at 24.2 million tonnes in 2022/23 (August to July), 700,000 tonnes lower than in 2021/22 (ICAC.org). World cotton production rose from 20 million tonnes to 25 million between 2020/21 and 2005/06, but there has been no growth in the nearly two decades since.  
 
World production of jute is forecast down nearly 400,000 tonnes in 2022 because of inadequate rainfall during the harvest period to permit proper retting. Production in India is estimated up by 100,000 tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, but production in Bangladesh fell by nearly one-third to just one million tonnes.
 
Production of coir, flax and sisal in 2022 are each estimated based on recent trends. Coir and flax have each been trending upward over the past decade, while world sisal production has been largely stable.

World wool production is forecast up 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee issued its third estimate of 2022/23 production in December, keeping the estimate unchanged from September. Above-average rainfall in Australia, and across most of the Southern Hemisphere, is resulting in better pasture conditions and a rebuilding of sheep numbers. Sheep numbers shorn in Australia are climbing from 67 million in 2020/21 to 72 million in 2021/22 and to an estimated 75 million in 2022/23. https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/wool-production-forecasts/  
 
According to the International Sericulture Commission (https://www.inserco.org/), silk production in China dropped from 170,000 tonnes in 2015 to 53,000 in 2020, with further declines estimated during Covid. Consequently, world silk production dropped from 202,000 tonnes in 2015 to 92,000 in 2020, and estimates of production during 2022 remain below 100,000 tonnes.

World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated at 32.6 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from the estimate one month ago. Production reached 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

A drought in Texas where over half of cotton produced in the United States is grown, and flooding in Pakistan, the fifth largest cotton producer, account for the decline (www.ICAC.org).

• Nearby cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 14% from the end of July and finished August at $2.60 per kilogram.
• The Eastern Market Indicator of wool prices in Australia, fell 1% from mid-July to mid-August to US$9.27 per kilogram.
• Prices of jute fibre in India quoted by the Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of August converted to US$ fell 4% from a month earlier to 79 cents per kilogram.
• Prices of silk in China equalled US$ 28.7 per kilogram at the end of August, compared with US$29.5 per kilogram in July 2022, a change of 3%.
• Coconut coir fibre in India held at US cents 21 per kilogram in August.

World production of jute and allied fibres is estimated unchanged at 3.2 million tonnes in 2022 compared with 2021. High market prices in 2021 motivated farmers to expand planted area in both Bangladesh and India, but dry weather during June and July will limit yields per hectare. Normal monsoon rains resumed in South Asia during August, too late for the 2022 jute crop (https://www.wgc.de/en/).

Production of coir fibre rose by an average of 18,000 tonnes per year during the past decade, and production was at a record high of 1.12 million tonnes in 2021. Production is expected to remain high in 2022.

Flax has also been trending upward, rising by an average of 27,000 tonnes per year, and production in 2022 is estimated to remain above one million tonnes.

World wool production is forecast up by 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. Wetter weather in the Southern Hemisphere, following eight years of drought, is allowing farmers to rebuild herds (https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/).

Natural fibres are heavily-traded commodities, and supply chain disruptions are causing significant economic losses as freight costs remain high and deliveries are delayed.

About 40% of world cotton production moves as fibre in international trade each season. Over half of world jute production moves as fibre or product, and around 55% of world wool production is exported as raw wool. Abaca, flax, and sisal are also heavily traded.

Most natural fibre exports traverse back-haul ocean freight routes from the Western Hemisphere to East Asia and the Middle East, from South Asia to East Asia and Europe, from Africa to East Asia and the Middle East, and from Australia and South Africa to China. Such routes are relatively underserved in the best of times, and reduced sailings since the start of Covid are restricting trade volumes.

As of the end of August, Freightos (https://fbx.freightos.com/) quoted the cost of moving a 40’ container from the United States West Coast to East Asia at $793, compared with $1,020 in March 2022. Nevertheless, average freight costs on back -haul routes used by natural fibres remain approximately triple their pre-covid levels. In addition to ocean freight costs, inland transportation is also affected by high fuel prices and a lack of containers. As one example, charges for inland handling of export containers in Bangladesh, the largest exporter of raw jute, increased by 48 per cent during August.

North Carolina educational institutions are joining forces with an Honduran university to educate and train thousands of students for the next generation textile workforce to meet a rising tide of nearshoring and onshoring in Honduras, Central America and the United States.

The U.S. Department of State issued a statement of public support for the MOU and the unique collaboration between the U.S. and Honduran institutions.

The initiative will launch a series of educational workforce development programs, ranging from training and certificate programs to undergraduate and graduate degrees, in textile-related areas of study.
 
The partnership comes at a defining moment for the U.S., Honduras and Central America, which are seeing historical levels of investment in textile and apparel production stemming from a global supply chain crisis that has driven a significant shift in sourcing out of Asia to the U.S. and the region. Nearly $1 billion of historic textile and apparel investment is anticipated in the U.S. and Central America this year alone. And this partnership also creates an educational pathway to economic opportunity in Honduras and the region that not only creates a skilled and resilient workforce but can also help to address the root causes of irregular migration.

Current growth projections indicate a need for more than 10,000 new skilled workers in the textile industry in Honduras alone over the next five years.

The U.S. and this region are inextricably linked through a textile and apparel co-production chain under the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) that has generated $12.6 billion in annual two-way trade in the sector and supports 1 million workers in the U.S. and the region.
 
North Carolina plays a central role in this co-production chain. It is the second largest state for textile employment nationally with over 36,000 workers, and the state’s $2.7 billion in textile-related exports leads the nation. The Northern Triangle, including Honduras, is a major export destination for U.S. yarns and fabrics that come back as finished items under the U.S.-CAFTA-DR trade agreement.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.