From the Sector

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

Renewcell and Kelheim Fibres Gmbh have signed a Letter of Intent for a long term commercial collaboration to add the crucial missing link for a circular economy for textiles in Europe. Together, the two technology leaders will collaborate on developing com mercial scale production of superior quality viscose fibers from up to 10 000 tonnes of Renewcell’s 100% textile recycled material Circulose® annually. The collaboration paves the way toward a fully European closed loop in which textile waste is collected, recycled and regenerated into new Circulose® fibers for people that want to reduce their fashion footprint significantly.

"European fashion consumption has great impact on climate and the environment globally. It also contributes to tremendous amounts of waste going into landfill and incinerators either in Europe or abroad after export. We will now work with Kelheim to prevent waste and reduce the need for virgin resources, while also enabling a fully regional supply of low impact circular fibers for text iles” comments Patrik Lundström, CEO of Renewcell. “We are thrilled for the opportunity to work closely with a partner like Kelheim, who is at the leading edge of innovation and sustainability in this industry” he adds.

Craig Barker, CEO at Kelheim Fibres adds: "We see an excellent fit between our two companies, not only on the technical side with Renewcell we have found a highly professional partner who shares our vision for future forward technologies that enable full circularity in the textile chain. Finding the answers to the challenges of our times is what drives us every day. Our recycled cellulose fibre solution made of Renewcell’s Circulose® and manufactured using environmentally sound processes at our Kelheim plant is an answer to the fashi on industries need for sustainable, resource and waste reducing solutions, and a more regional and reliable supply chain."

Milliken & Company and American & Efird (A&E) hosted United States Trade Representative (USTR) Ambassador Katherine Tai in two separate visits to the companies’ state-of-the-art textile manufacturing facilities, marking an unprecedented visit to the heart of the U.S. textile industry in the Carolinas by the nation’s top trade chief.

Ambassador Tai’s visit comes at a pivotal time for the U.S. textile supply chain, which produced $64 billion in output in 2020 and employed nearly 530,000 workers. The industry has been at the forefront of a domestic production chain manufacturing over a billion personal protective equipment (PPE) items during the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Ambassador’s visit to Milliken included a tour of the company’s Magnolia plant in Blacksburg, S.C., and a roundtable discussion highlighting the important role women contribute to textiles, the critical need for policies supporting a domestic supply chain, and the significant impact of the sector to the U.S. economy. Milliken is one of the largest textile companies in the U.S., employing more than 6,000 associates domestically and an additional 1,350 associates globally. Milliken’s Textile Business alone employs 2,500 people across eight counties in South Carolina and is the fourth largest manufacturing employer in the Upstate.

On the second leg of her trip, Ambassador Tai visited American & Efird’s manufacturing facility in Mount Holly, N.C. American & Efird operates as part of Elevate Textiles and its global portfolio of advanced products and distinguished textile brands, including A&E, Burlington, Cone Denim, Gütermann and Safety Components, and representing more than 500 years of textile manufacturing knowledge.

During the visit, U.S. textile executives spanning the fiber, yarn, fabric, and finished product textile and apparel industry participated in a roundtable with the Ambassador at which they discussed the competitiveness of the domestic industry, outlined priority issues in Washington, such as the importance of the Western Hemisphere co-production chain and ways to jointly support domestic supply chains through Buy American and Berry Amendment policies that help onshore production, spur investment, maintain the safety and security of our armed forces and generate new jobs.