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12.06.2023

VIATT 2024: New textile fair in Vietnam

With combined regional, global, and industry specific expertise, the Vietnam International Trade Fair for Apparel, Textiles and Textile Technologies (VIATT) will make its debut from 28 February – 1 March 2024. Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in late March, Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd and the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (VIETRADE) announced the new international fair for the entire textile value chain. The three-day platform will be staged at the Saigon Exhibition and Convention Center (SECC), Ho Chi Minh City.

Commenting on the new event, Ms Wendy Wen, Managing Director of Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd, said: “With Intertextile Apparel in Shanghai a prime example, our Texpertise Network provides the ideal global framework from which to launch this diverse, comprehensive platform for the integrated textile supply chain. VIATT itself will capture the essence of Texpertise in one platform – a diverse, one-stop sourcing event for buyers across all categories, from garments, fabrics, yarns and fibres, to textile machinery, technical textiles and nonwovens, and everything in between.”

With combined regional, global, and industry specific expertise, the Vietnam International Trade Fair for Apparel, Textiles and Textile Technologies (VIATT) will make its debut from 28 February – 1 March 2024. Following the signing of a memorandum of understanding (MOU) in late March, Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd and the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (VIETRADE) announced the new international fair for the entire textile value chain. The three-day platform will be staged at the Saigon Exhibition and Convention Center (SECC), Ho Chi Minh City.

Commenting on the new event, Ms Wendy Wen, Managing Director of Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd, said: “With Intertextile Apparel in Shanghai a prime example, our Texpertise Network provides the ideal global framework from which to launch this diverse, comprehensive platform for the integrated textile supply chain. VIATT itself will capture the essence of Texpertise in one platform – a diverse, one-stop sourcing event for buyers across all categories, from garments, fabrics, yarns and fibres, to textile machinery, technical textiles and nonwovens, and everything in between.”

Discussing the event’s potential, Mr Le Hoang Tai, Deputy Director General of the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (VIETRADE), said: “Vietnam is one of the world’s leading textile producers and exporters, and going from strength to strength as one of Southeast Asia’s manufacturing hubs. Our establishment has many years of experience organising trade fairs throughout Vietnam, and together with Messe Frankfurt we are excited to help international fairgoers unlock the potential of the country’s fast-growing textile market. In addition, Ho Chi Minh City’s accessibility, and Vietnam’s proximity to other leading textile-producing nations such as Bangladesh, Cambodia, China and India, make it the logical venue to host an event of this nature.”

Many international textile manufacturers have been expanding operations into Vietnam, augmenting an already strong domestic industry. According to the Vietnam Textile and Apparel Association (VITAS), the country’s textile and garment industry achieved staggering annual growth of 20 – 26% from 2018 – 2022. Participation in international trade agreements such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the EU–Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), and the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)[2], bodes well for future growth.

As one of the world’s biggest importers of textile machinery, and a consistent importer of fabrics, yarns and fibres, garment production is the cornerstone of Vietnam’s industry. The country utilises cotton and functional materials to produce casualwear, childrenswear, swimwear, workwear, and much more, with sportswear an especially fast-growing category, and high-utility garments expected to achieve high exports.

By linking textile players from across Asia, Europe and beyond with this market, VIATT 2024 is willing to play an important part in shaping the future of Vietnam’s industry. Next year’s fair will host an extensive mix of international and domestic exhibitors covering multiple textile sub-sectors, including garments, apparel fabrics and accessories, yarns and fibres, digital printing, home textiles, technical textiles and nonwovens, textile processing, textile machinery, and more.

Exhibitors and buyers can utilise the fair’s global business matchmaking service, where connections are made based on the specific needs of each party. In addition to the fair’s main function as an international trading platform, its fringe programme will facilitate participants’ networking with industry leaders and offer diverse market insights via various seminars, forums, and panel discussions.

The Vietnam International Trade Fair for Apparel, Textiles and Textile Technologies (VIATT) is organised by Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd and the Vietnam Trade Promotion Agency (VIETRADE). Covering the entire textile industry value chain, the inaugural edition will be held from 28 February – 1 March 2024 at the Saigon Exhibition and Convention Center (SECC), Ho Chi Minh City.

More information:
Vietnam
Source:

Messe Frankfurt (HK) Ltd,

DNFI
09.01.2023

World Natural Fibre Update - January 2023

Price Trends

Price Trends

  • The nearby cotton futures contract on the Intercontinental Exchange was down just 1% in December and closed the year at $1.84 per kilogram. A year earlier, the March contract closed at $2.30 per kilogram.  

    Cotton futures have been inverted for nearly three years because of supply chain disruptions that prevented normal on-time deliveries of international shipments. With the easing of container shortages and increased sailings, cotton futures are gradually reverting to the normal pattern in which contracts for forward delivery exceed nearby contracts by the cost of insurance, storage and interest between delivery months. The May and July 2023 contracts also finished 2022 at $1.84 per kilogram. In November, the May and July contracts were each several cents per kilogram lower than the March contract.
  • The Eastern Market Indicator of prices for fine wool in Australia rose 9% in December to US$9.06 per kilogram. A year earlier, the EMI was $9.66. Australian analysts note that sheep for meat, cattle, and grain production, are competing alternatives for the use of land, and wool prices must continue upward if production is to be maintained in 2023.
  • Prices quoted by the Indian Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of December converted to US$ fell 2% from a month earlier to an average of 74 cents per kilogram. The decline occurred entirely because of a weakening exchange rate. Prices in Rupee rose marginally. A year earlier, quoted prices averaged 84 cents per kilogram. The 16-percent decline year-on-year was caused about equally by a decline in quoted prices in Rupee and a weakening of the exchange rate.  

    The Indian jute industry is almost entirely focused on domestic demand, while half of total demand in Bangladesh comes from exports. Because of shortages of higher quality jute, export prices in Bangladesh are reportedly rising.
    (https://www.wgc.de/en/produkte/jute)

    India extended the anti-dumping duty at the end of December on jute and jute products imported from Bangladesh and Nepal for a period of five years. Bangladesh had urged the Indian government not to accept recommendations for extension, while the Indian industry was lobbying to ensure the duty remained in place. The duty rates range from approximately $6 per tonne at current exchange rates for low-quality fibres to $350 per tonne for finished products. The duty was originally imposed in January 2017 and was to expire at the end of 2022.
  • Prices of silk in China rose 2% during December to US$28.0 per kilogram. Prices in yuan fell marginally during the month, but the RMB rose 3% against the USD. Prices of textile-grade silk in China were essentially unchanged at the end of 2022 compared with the end of 2021. However, prices closed 2022 about 40% above the average level pre-Covid. https://www.sunsirs.com/uk/prodetail-322.html and  https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/raw-silk-price-index/ .
  • Coconut coir fibre in India quoted in US$ remained in a narrow range, averaging $0.205 per kilogram in December. Prices in Rupee have been stable, and changes in dollar prices reflect changes in the exchange rate.

 
Production
 
World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated as of early January at 32 million tonnes, approximately one million below production in 2021 and down 900,000 tonnes compared with the estimate in early December.

World cotton production is estimated at 24.2 million tonnes in 2022/23 (August to July), 700,000 tonnes lower than in 2021/22 (ICAC.org). World cotton production rose from 20 million tonnes to 25 million between 2020/21 and 2005/06, but there has been no growth in the nearly two decades since.  
 
World production of jute is forecast down nearly 400,000 tonnes in 2022 because of inadequate rainfall during the harvest period to permit proper retting. Production in India is estimated up by 100,000 tonnes to 1.7 million tonnes, but production in Bangladesh fell by nearly one-third to just one million tonnes.
 
Production of coir, flax and sisal in 2022 are each estimated based on recent trends. Coir and flax have each been trending upward over the past decade, while world sisal production has been largely stable.

World wool production is forecast up 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee issued its third estimate of 2022/23 production in December, keeping the estimate unchanged from September. Above-average rainfall in Australia, and across most of the Southern Hemisphere, is resulting in better pasture conditions and a rebuilding of sheep numbers. Sheep numbers shorn in Australia are climbing from 67 million in 2020/21 to 72 million in 2021/22 and to an estimated 75 million in 2022/23. https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/wool-production-forecasts/  
 
According to the International Sericulture Commission (https://www.inserco.org/), silk production in China dropped from 170,000 tonnes in 2015 to 53,000 in 2020, with further declines estimated during Covid. Consequently, world silk production dropped from 202,000 tonnes in 2015 to 92,000 in 2020, and estimates of production during 2022 remain below 100,000 tonnes.

More information:
natural fibers textiles market
Source:

DNFI

15.09.2022

World Natural Fibre Update September 2022

World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated at 32.6 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from the estimate one month ago. Production reached 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

A drought in Texas where over half of cotton produced in the United States is grown, and flooding in Pakistan, the fifth largest cotton producer, account for the decline (www.ICAC.org).

World Natural Fibre Production in 2022 is estimated at 32.6 million tonnes, down 1.1 million tonnes from the estimate one month ago. Production reached 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

A drought in Texas where over half of cotton produced in the United States is grown, and flooding in Pakistan, the fifth largest cotton producer, account for the decline (www.ICAC.org).

  • Nearby cotton futures on the Intercontinental Exchange rose 14% from the end of July and finished August at $2.60 per kilogram.
  • The Eastern Market Indicator of wool prices in Australia, fell 1% from mid-July to mid-August to US$9.27 per kilogram.
  • Prices of jute fibre in India quoted by the Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of August converted to US$ fell 4% from a month earlier to 79 cents per kilogram.
  • Prices of silk in China equalled US$ 28.7 per kilogram at the end of August, compared with US$29.5 per kilogram in July 2022, a change of 3%.
  • Coconut coir fibre in India held at US cents 21 per kilogram in August.

World production of jute and allied fibres is estimated unchanged at 3.2 million tonnes in 2022 compared with 2021. High market prices in 2021 motivated farmers to expand planted area in both Bangladesh and India, but dry weather during June and July will limit yields per hectare. Normal monsoon rains resumed in South Asia during August, too late for the 2022 jute crop (https://www.wgc.de/en/).

Production of coir fibre rose by an average of 18,000 tonnes per year during the past decade, and production was at a record high of 1.12 million tonnes in 2021. Production is expected to remain high in 2022.

Flax has also been trending upward, rising by an average of 27,000 tonnes per year, and production in 2022 is estimated to remain above one million tonnes.

World wool production is forecast up by 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. Wetter weather in the Southern Hemisphere, following eight years of drought, is allowing farmers to rebuild herds (https://www.wool.com/market-intelligence/).

Natural fibres are heavily-traded commodities, and supply chain disruptions are causing significant economic losses as freight costs remain high and deliveries are delayed.

About 40% of world cotton production moves as fibre in international trade each season. Over half of world jute production moves as fibre or product, and around 55% of world wool production is exported as raw wool. Abaca, flax, and sisal are also heavily traded.

Most natural fibre exports traverse back-haul ocean freight routes from the Western Hemisphere to East Asia and the Middle East, from South Asia to East Asia and Europe, from Africa to East Asia and the Middle East, and from Australia and South Africa to China. Such routes are relatively underserved in the best of times, and reduced sailings since the start of Covid are restricting trade volumes.

As of the end of August, Freightos (https://fbx.freightos.com/) quoted the cost of moving a 40’ container from the United States West Coast to East Asia at $793, compared with $1,020 in March 2022. Nevertheless, average freight costs on back -haul routes used by natural fibres remain approximately triple their pre-covid levels. In addition to ocean freight costs, inland transportation is also affected by high fuel prices and a lack of containers. As one example, charges for inland handling of export containers in Bangladesh, the largest exporter of raw jute, increased by 48 per cent during August.

More information:
DNFI
Source:

Discover Natural Fibres Initiative

Photo: Mark Stebnicki, pexels
16.08.2022

USDA presents new study of Chinese Cotton Textile Industry

  • Growing geographic separation between cotton production and textile manufacturing since the 1990s

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a comprehensive study about Chinese cotton in August 2022. The authors, Fred Gale and Eric Davis, concentrate on textiles, imports and Xinjiang.

China is the world’s largest textile manufacturer and the largest cotton consumer, but changes in China’s economy are reshaping the geography of its cotton-textile sector. Nearly all of China’s cotton is produced in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), also known more simply as Xinjiang.

  • Growing geographic separation between cotton production and textile manufacturing since the 1990s

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released a comprehensive study about Chinese cotton in August 2022. The authors, Fred Gale and Eric Davis, concentrate on textiles, imports and Xinjiang.

China is the world’s largest textile manufacturer and the largest cotton consumer, but changes in China’s economy are reshaping the geography of its cotton-textile sector. Nearly all of China’s cotton is produced in the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR), also known more simply as Xinjiang.

Their study reviewed the regional patterns of China’s cotton textile industry development and identified growing geographic separation between cotton production and textile manufacturing since the 1990s using data from Chinese sources. The study investigated spatial patterns of demand for imported cotton by analyzing lists of Chinese companies applying for a share of the import quota from 2016 to 2022. Multiple regression analysis was used to control for potentially confounding influences when investigating whether companies in coastal provinces were more likely to use imported cotton than similarly sized companies in other regions.

Textile manufacturers — the main consumers of cotton — are concentrated in coastal and central regions where the share of China’s cotton production fell from over 50 percent to 10 percent during 2011–21. These geographic changes are a factor influencing global trade in cotton and textiles. Additionally, the use of forced labor in Xinjiang attracted more attention to the industry, prompting the United States and other countries to ban products produced in the region.

This study reviews the economic, geographic, and policy factors reshaping the industry and influencing the global trade of cotton and textile products. The study also examines data on Chinese companies applying for a share of China’s cotton import quota to gain insight about the demand for imported cotton.

China became the world’s largest producer, consumer, and importer of cotton soon after joining the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001. Despite adopting a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) system for cotton imports and issuing supplemental quotas in most years, the large number of cotton goods manufacturers that request shares of the quota suggests demand for imported cotton exceeds  the quota.

While the TRQ was intended to protect China’s cotton farmers, many farmers abandoned the labor-intensive crop as wages rose rapidly in many other industries and other crops produced higher returns. In response, officials encouraged cotton production in the relatively remote region of Xinjiang to prevent China from becoming reliant on imported cotton. Xinjiang growers receive a subsidy payment for cotton, and subsidies for machinery and seeds. A transportation subsidy induces textile manufacturers in eastern and central regions to purchase cotton from Xinjiang, which is about 2,200 to 2,900 miles from most of the country’s textile manufacturers. Financial support and other incentives encourage manufacturers to shift operations to Xinjiang.

Textile manufacturers in China are highly interested in importing cotton due to its lower price and quality. China imports about 20 percent of its cotton, and the United States is a chief exporter of cotton to China. While imported cotton is used in all provinces, manufacturers near the eastern seaboard show a greater propensity for imports. Nevertheless, in all regions, domestic cotton has the largest share of mill use.

Between 2016 and 2022, 1,581 companies applied for a share of the TRQ, and 265 companies applied in all 7 years. Most of these companies also applied for supplemental quotas issued with slightly higher tariffs. This large number of applicants suggests that imports could be even greater if quotas did not limit them. The operation of the quota application process is not public information, but data submitted by applicants suggests access to imported cotton is uneven. About 14 percent of applicants said imported cotton comprised over half of the cotton they used. Another 20 percent of companies requesting import quota did not use any imported cotton, suggesting that many applicants are unable to import. Textile manufacturers coped with limits on cotton imports by increasing their use of synthetic, chemical-based fibers or by importing cotton yarn. From 2000 to 2020, China’s yarn imports doubled from under 1 million metric tons to around 2 million metric tons with Vietnam supplying about 45 percent of that total in 2020.

The number of textile manufacturers in Xinjiang applying for a share of the cotton import quota rose from 37 to 68 between 2016 and 2022. However, imports constituted less than 2 percent of  the cotton Xinjiang applicants reported using—and 66 percent of them reported using no imported cotton—suggesting that applications from Xinjiang textile companies were often denied.
Analysis found that applicants in coastal provinces used more imported cotton than similarly sized applicants in other regions. Each location of a multi-plant company must apply separately for tariff-rate quotas. Textile manufacturers in Xinjiang that requested a share of the import quota included branches of some of China’s largest textile companies, but the analysis found that Xinjiang applicants used less imported cotton than similar manufacturing plants located in other regions. China’s role as a cotton importer appears to have peaked, while other countries are increasing their share of imports.

USDA baseline projections suggest that by 2030 Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Turkey will together account for 47 percent of the world’s cotton imports while China will only account for 24 percent. The study cam be downloaded from the USDA website.

More information:
cotton Cotton USA China Xinjiang
(c) DNFI
16.08.2022

DNFI: Cotton prices the highest in a decade during 2021/22

The Discover Natural Fibres Initiative DNFI published their statistical World Natural Fibre Update this month. The world production of natural fibres is estimated at 33.7 million tonnes in 2022, a slight increase compared with a preliminary 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

The DNFI Natural Fibre Composite Price dropped 2% in July 2022 to US 219 cents/kg, compared with US 223 cents the previous month. The DNFI Composite is an average of prices in major markets for cotton, wool, jute, silk, coir fibre, and sisal, converted to US$ per kilogram and weighted by shares of world production.

The Discover Natural Fibres Initiative DNFI published their statistical World Natural Fibre Update this month. The world production of natural fibres is estimated at 33.7 million tonnes in 2022, a slight increase compared with a preliminary 33.3 million tonnes in 2021 and 31.6 million in 2020.

The DNFI Natural Fibre Composite Price dropped 2% in July 2022 to US 219 cents/kg, compared with US 223 cents the previous month. The DNFI Composite is an average of prices in major markets for cotton, wool, jute, silk, coir fibre, and sisal, converted to US$ per kilogram and weighted by shares of world production.

  • The DNFI Composite was pulled downward primarily by a 9% decline in the Eastern Market Indicator of wool prices in Australia, which fell from US$ 10.27 per kilogram in June to US$9.38 in July.
  • October cotton ICE futures (the nearby contract) finished July marginally lower, closing at 228 US cents per kilogram, compared with 229 at the end of June.
  • Prices of jute fibre in India quoted by the Jute Balers Association (JBA) at the end of July were unchanged from a month earlier, but with depreciation of the Rupee versus the dollar, calculated prices fell from 84 cents to 82 cents per kilogram.
  • Prices of silk in China equalled US$29.5 per kilogram in July 2022, coconut coir fibre in India held at US cents 21 per kilogram, and sisal in Brazil finished July at US cents 41 per kilogram.

Cotton prices were the highest in a decade during 2021/22, and world cotton production is estimated by the International Cotton Advisory Committee at 25.8 million tonnes during the 2022/23 season which began August 1, up from 25.4 million in the season just completed. Extreme drought in Texas, the largest producing state in the United States, is limiting the rise in world production that would otherwise be occurring.

World production of jute and allied fibres is estimated unchanged at 3.2 million tonnes in 2022 compared with 2021. High market prices in 2021 motivated farmers to expand planted area in both Bangladesh and India, but dry weather in jute-growing areas during June and July has undermined earlier optimistic hopes for yields. Rainfall was approximately half of normal in the city of Kolkata from early June to mid-July.

Production of coir fibre rose by an average of 18,000 tonnes per year during the past decade, and production was record high at 1.12 million tonnes in 2021. Production is expected to remain high in 2022.

Flax has also been trending upward, rising by an average of 27,000 tonnes per year, and production in 2022 is estimated to remain above one million tonnes.
World wool production is forecast up by 5% in 2022 to 1.09 million tonnes (clean), the highest since 2018. Wetter weather in the Southern Hemisphere, following eight years of drought, is allowing farmers to rebuild herds.

More information:
natural fibers DNFI
Source:

DNFI

13.07.2022

Cotton Market Fundamentals & Price Outlook – July 22

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

More information:
cotton Cotton USA Cotton Inc.
Source:

Cotton Incorporated