Textination Newsline

• Modernization of production facilities required

Thanks to the reactivated GSP import status of the European Union, Sri Lanka's textile and clothing industry is looking to the future with confidence and expects better sales opportunities abroad.

The textile and clothing industry is of macroeconomic importance for Sri Lanka. The sector accounted for almost 43 per cent of the country's total exports in 2018 and provides employment for nearly 350,000 workers in the formal sector and about twice as many in the informal sector. In total, this is about 33 percent of all jobs in the manufacturing industry. The majority of employees are women.

The textile and clothing industry contribute around 6 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP). "In view of the development of other sectors, it is very unlikely that another industry will reach this level of performance in the short to medium term," Jeevani Siriwardena, head of the Export Development Board (EDB), said in an interview with Germany Trade and Invest. The textile and clothing industry will continue to be an important sector for the Sri Lankan economy.

Short to medium-term prospects are good
On May 18th 2017, the European Union (EU) reactivated the Generalized Scheme of Preferences Plus (GSP+) status for Sri Lanka after a seven-year time-out. This means that when goods are exported to the EU, the island state is exempted from customs duties on more than 66 percent of customs tariff lines. "Without GSP status, Sri Lanka's export losses are said to have cost around 32 billion between 2010 and 2017," stressed Ravindi Ranaraja, Deputy Head of the Export Service Division of EDB, in a GTAI interview. In particular, the strongly export-oriented clothing and textile industry will benefit from the regained GSP status. Sri Lanka's textile and clothing industry is looking to the future with confidence and also expects better sales opportunities abroad.

^{*) Estimation}
Sources: Sri Lanka Apparel Exporters Association; press releases; calculations by Germany Trade & Invest; Destatis, February 2019

Positive impulses are already visible. According to the latest foreign trade figures available, Sri Lanka was able to increase its total exports of textiles and clothing (HS codes 61, 62 and 63) by almost 4.8 percent to approximately USD 5 billion in 2018. Exports to the EU increased by 3.9 percent to USD 2.1 billion. Exports to Germany were able to recover a plus of 12.8 percent.

It is not yet certain that Sri Lanka will be able to make up for the losses of the past. In the meantime, countries such as Bangladesh, India and Pakistan, which have already enjoyed tariff concessions in foreign trade with the EU for the entire current decade, have passed by the island state. Bangladesh in particular, recorded a strong increase in its clothing and textile exports compared with Sri Lanka..

¹⁾ Estimation; ^{2) Forecast}
Sources: Press Releases; Calculations Germany Trade & Invest, February 2019

Sri Lanka focuses on higher quality products
Numerous domestic textile producers are switching to the production of higher-quality garments in order to maintain their competitiveness. "In Sri Lanka, the focus is not on mass but rather on higher quality products," confirmed M. Raghuram, Chief Executive Officer of Brandix, one of the country's largest clothing companies, in an interview with GTAI. The island state concentrates on the production of just a few product categories such as underwear, sportswear or lounge wear..

Sri Lanka has become a location for the manufacture of high-quality garments. This is also confirmed by the World Bank. In its 2016 study "Stitches to Riches" (website), it found that Sri Lanka outperformed its competitors India, Pakistan and Bangladesh in terms of quality, delivery times, reliability and sustainable social responsibility.

Sri Lanka serves fastidious international companies such as Victoria Secrets, GAP, Nike or Marks and Spencer. According to expert estimates, the production of the top 10 Sri Lankan textile and clothing companies accounts for around 85 percent of the industry's total exports.

The ambitious goal is to increase the garment industry's export revenues to USD 8 billion by 2025, which will require an annual growth of 6 percent. For this Sri Lanka must improve capacity, technology and resource problems. "It is becoming more and more difficult to find suitable personnel. For many young people working in the garment and textile industry in Sri Lanka is simply unattractive”, Nilanthi Sivapragasam, Chief Financial Officer of the conglomerate Aitkence Spence, told GTAI. The training of the workforce is also a major challenge. "Training new employees is very time-consuming and labor-intensive," confirms Sivapragasam.

Imports of German machinery decline
In addition, Sri Lanka's textile companies must modernize their machinery and expand their capacities in order to further increase productivity and added value. Accordingly, there is a great demand for technically sophisticated textile machines in the country. This offers good opportunities and chances for machine suppliers. According to experts, the demand for textile printing and dyeing machines, stenter frames and finishing technology will develop particularly dynamically in the future.
 
In Sri Lanka itself only relatively simple machines are being produced. High-end technology is mainly imported. China is the most important supplier of textile machinery, accounting for about one third of all imports. India has also been able to significantly increase its machine exports to Sri Lanka in recent years. In 2017, India achieved exports of USD 6.3 million, an increase of 46.7 percent, compared with exports of USD 2.6 million in 2010.

German machine exports suffered enormous losses. Sri Lanka's imports of textile machinery from Germany amounted to USD 16.5 million in 2017, a decrease of 54.2 percent. Over the past years, Germany has lost share of its deliveries. According to industry experts, this trend will continue: Made in Germany stands for quality and continues to be very popular in Sri Lanka; however, German machine manufacturers are often unable to keep up with the low-cost products from China or India.

Source: UN Comtrade, March 2019

• Clothing exports are declining 

New Delhi (GTAI) - Structural weaknesses and fiscal reforms are affecting the Indian textile industry. Modernization and diversification are necessary. For this where support measures will come into force.

In the 2016/17 fiscal year (April 1st to March 31st), India's government initiated a number of fundamental reforms such as the introduction of the nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a partial currency devaluation. These measures are intended to advance the economy as a whole in the medium to long term, but have led to uncertainty and difficulties in individual sectors, including the textile industry. Added to this are high cotton prices. The government is now trying to help the industry with individual measures. It remains to be seen whether these will be sufficient and lead to a sustained improvement. Finally, there are structural weaknesses which are also slowing down the growth of the Industry.

"The by the introduction of GST caused dent and monetary depreciation has now been overcome. However, the structural problems remain, so that no fundamental changes in the textile industry are to be expected", according to the assessment of a German supplier with many years of experience in India in talks with Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI).

Government launches aid measures
However, some government measures should provide relief. At the beginning of August 2018, import duties on 328 textile products, especially fabrics and nonwovens, were increased from around 5 to 10 percent to up to 20 percent. Also, at the beginning of the month, the Executive Board introduced four bills to amend the general VAT Act introduced on July 1st 2017. This should make refunds, for example of taxes on intermediate products, easier and faster. The introduction of GST and the delays in reimbursement have put particular pressure on the liquidity of small and medium-sized companies, which make up the bulk of textile companies. For example, the denim industry temporarily had to take 25 to 30 percent of its capacity out of production after the tax introduction.

 Also, the Ministry of Textiles wants to strengthen the to it entrusted weakening industry. At the beginning of August 2018, for example, it added changes to the Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme (TUFS), which has been in existence since 1999. This now expanded technology promotion program allows cooperative banks to provide financing to textile companies for technological improvements. They also become accessible for liability partnerships. Of the approximately USD 1.1 billion, that the central government budget is holding for the textile industry in the fiscal year 2018/19, one third, 14 percent more than in the previous year, are intended for the TUFS. Manufacturers of synthetic fibers and the clothing industry in particular are likely to benefit from this, according to industry sources.

The existence of an own Ministry of Textiles shows how important this industry is for India, not only as a source of foreign exchange, but also as an employer. The entire sector, from spinning mills, weaving mills to clothing and other finished goods, contributed around 14 percent to value creation in the manufacturing industry and 13 percent to foreign exchange revenues in 2017, and employs directly 40 million and indirectly 60 million workers.

As one of the world's leading producers of cotton, jute and silk, India has comparative advantages in the textile sector and can look back on a long tradition in processing. Accordingly, cotton is the main raw material in yarn and fabric production. After all, 5.7 billion tons of yarn were spun in 2016/17, achieving an annual average increase of 3.1 percent between 2011 and 2017. The weaving mills processed 63.5 billion square meters of fabric in 2016/17, after 61.7 billion in 2011. The proportion of cotton fabrics rose from 51 to 61 percent in 2011 to 2017. The remaining part is accounted for approximately equally by synthetic and blended fabrics.

 
Production and export growth come to a halt Based on the previously strong growth the government is optimistic. According to forecasts by the Ministry of Textile, India's textile and clothing industry is expected to more than double its sales between 2015 and 2021. Exports are expected to increase from USD 35 billion to USD 82 billion, after doubling in the period from 2006 to 2014 from USD 17.6 billion to USD 37.6 billion. After that, however, they stagnated and, at USD 35 billion in 2017/18 and missed the by the government set target by USD 10 billion. The production of textiles and clothing declined from 2015 to 2017. It is unlikely to improve in 2018.

¹⁾ Financial years from 1 April to 31 March; ²⁾ Provisional data for 2016/17 and 2017/18
Source: Statistical Office India
     

Clothing industry needs to modernize 
India's textile industry has cost advantages over industrialized countries and advanced emerging countries such as China. Smaller developing countries, however, have become well-known competitors in the meantime and have partly surpassed India in terms of clothing. So Bangladesh and Vietnam exported more clothing than India. In addition there is growing competition from other low-wage countries such as Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Some of these countries have free trade agreements with the EU, while India has difficulties in negotiating them. The smaller competitors have also geared their clothing industry to exports and modernized it accordingly. After all, they do not have significant local markets. The Indian textile manufacturers are different: If there is not enough quality for export, the domestic market, which has a population of 1.3 billion inhabitants and is growing strongly, is still there, industry representatives explain to GTAI.

India's apparel industry therefore still has a considerable potential for modernization and requires new production technologies, particularly to improve operating efficiency. Other structural weaknesses include strong wage increases with insufficient productivity growth and a shortage of well-trained skilled workers. Other disadvantages are the fragmentation of the clothing industry - many companies lack size - and the lack of adaptation to global fashion trends. While the fashion world is more prone to fiber mixed fabrics, the Indian clothing is not yet following this trend. There is a lack of product diversification.

The spinning and weaving sector looks more modern. Industry experts attest to it a leading international position in terms of size, technology, productivity, quality and price. This is also evident when importing machines. India was the most important export market for German spinning machines to China in 2017 and the fifth largest market for weaving machines, according to the Textile Machinery Association of the German Engineering Federation (VDMA). In textile finishing machinery, India does not rank among the top six export markets, but its competitor Bangladesh does.

Double-digit growth in foreign direct Investment 
Foreign investments in the Indian textile industry are welcome and 100 percent foundations by foreign companies are welcome. On promotional trips to countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy and France, India is actively attracting investors and has not been unsuccessful. The inflow of foreign direct investment into the textile sector, including dyed and printed textiles, amounted to USD 2.7 billion between April 2000 and September 2017. Cumulative investments increased by an annual average of 17.3 percent between 2010 and 2017. However, the bulk of the investment is being stemmed by national Indians. Total investments in India's textile sector from June 2017 to May 2018 amounted to USD 4.2 Billion.

• Vietnam is largest beneficiary
• Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

Labor costs in China will not move down again. Even when the economic growth increasingly weakens, China's coastal regions are already often too expensive for wage-intensive productions. The world's largest location of the manufacturing sector will anyway leave its dependence of exports and will generate more growth through domestic consumption. The remaining companies are therefore increasingly focused on Chinese customers. Has the textile industry heard the signals already several years ago and shifted away, now the electronics companies have started to search.

But – the relocation of production is not so easy, the experts agreed upon at the discussion panel Shifting Supply Chains in Asia on the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong. Because no country, except India, offers such a workforce. But neither the infrastructure and the investment climate can match, nor the country has any interest in low-production stages. Furthermore China has set up a supply industry without any comparison.

Relocation trends slow down

Even Bangladesh, established for a long time as a cheap location for clothes, is losing its attractiveness - experts say. Besides fundamentally difficult production conditions especially scandals like collapsing factories are responsible. No western clothing manufacturer likes to be associated with that repute today. While Indonesia was generally judged for being rather little investment friendly, the Philippines would provide a better reputation than years ago. So in addition to numerous Japanese producers also German companies have moved from southern China to the special areas of the Philippines.

Due to wage cost increases by an average of 15% per year, China with it’s the low-wage area has catapulted itself in a large extent out of the market. In times of rising productivity this was compensated for a while but at last the model came to its limits. The empire of the middle will therefore make the leap to a consumptionbased growth based on production of high-tech and on the provision of services. It is still
unclear whether this leap across the "middleincome trap" will succeed. Many emerging countries are caught in this trap, and the growth is flagging.

German buyers order less in China

Accordingly German retailers are increasingly reducing their imports from China and buy more and more in other countries. This is the result of a member survey of the Foreign Trade Association of German Retailers (AVE), at which for the most part textile and shoe retailers participated. 80% of the respondents have already reduced their import volume from China in 2015, 90% of the companies said they are
planning to source from other supply regions. The merchants are seeing a shift to countries like Myanmar (78%), Bangladesh (67%) and Vietnam (56%).

Vietnam, which already benefited in recent years from the relocation, was still recommended on the AFF as a top location. The country with the highest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2015 would have risen in the 1st half of 2015 to the fourth-largest exporter of textiles, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) analyzed. For shoes it is already the third largest supplier worldwide. Based on mega investments from Samsung, now the electronics industry came out of the starting blocks and should attract more activities. Experts cite especially the mixture of young, growing populations with low labor costs as an important locational advantage.

Vietnam benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTA)

A thrust Vietnam's attractiveness currently receives through free trade agreements which are in a final stage. So a free trade agreement with the European Union was signed in December 2015 which was followed early February 2016 by the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The latter agreement, which includes next to ten other Pacific neighbors the United States, should bring a large benefit for Vietnam. For the Vietnamese consumer goods manufacturers the US is the most important market, the large retailers in the United States can move their procurements very fast.

As an underdeveloped member Vietnam is likely to get larger portions of the value chain in the textile and electronics area at the ratification (and even before). The country is still missing a developed supplier structure. This is just happening to be built in the textile sector, there are investments in capacity for yarns, fabrics and dyeing going on. For Samsung, the largest foreign investor, all components are still coming
from China. And only when a large proportion of the added value comes from TPP member states, the low duty will become applicable.

While the purchasing power is not quite so big in Europe, costs play an important role also there. But next to it the control of the supply chain and the flexibility has developed a greater role, rapid changes of trends and collections are determined by customers and the Internet. Therefore also here a shift back, closer to the markets, has begun. Romania and Bulgaria have established themselves in the middle of
Europe as a "low-wage locations". But even there the population is characterized by aging. Accordingly labor forces will become scare and wages will rise. Ukraine is traded as a new location.

Africa still with small potential

Little potential the experts from the Supply Chain Panels evidence the location of sub-Saharan Africa. This was tested by some buyers or producers, but the results would not be convincing. The views however diverge. Some Chinese companies are already partly on site and American manufacturers are monitoring the further development. So, for example, the VF Corporation, the largest denim retailer in the world, is buying in Africa. Only Ethiopia would have potential - according to a representative. But the infrastructure, investment climate and working morale could not be comparable.

So - basically serious alternatives to the established locations are lacking. Therefore, due to the scarcity of labor, costs and thus the final prices will rise. Even in Vietnam the minimum wage increased by 15% in 2015. But when it will be hardly possible to turn at the purchase screw, the companies need to position themselves better in marketing and sales, so a large clothing buyer. Therefore social media must be used in order to come closer to the customer and, for example, to develop individualization as a selling point.

Source: McKinsey survey of chief purchasing managers