Textination Newsline

Since 2019, the Messe Frankfurt Texpertise Network has been working with the Conscious Fashion Campaign and the United Nations Office for Partnerships to bring the Sustainable Development Goals to all 58 textile events in the network worldwide. Numerous measures have already been implemented. Others are imminent.

Shortly before the start of the COVID-19 crisis, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutérrez hailed the start of the Decade of Action. As of 2020, the international community now has just ten years to achieve the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) to which the UN Member States committed themselves in the 2030 Agenda. As part of the collaboration with the Conscious Fashion Campaign and the United Nations Office for Partnerships, the Messe Frankfurt Texpertise Network will put the SDGs on the agenda of additional events in December, thus further supporting their implementation in the fashion and textile industry.

Virtual event “Discover the SDGs – To Power the Decade of Action”
From 1-30 December 2020, the Texpertise Network is taking part in the virtual learning experience “Discover the SDGs”, which was initiated by the Conscious Fashion Campaign in collaboration with the United Nations Office for Partnerships. The aim of the event is to strengthen the knowledge and commitment within the fashion industry that is needed to further support the Decade of Action to deliver the Sustainable Development Goals. One component of the event is a virtual and interactive exhibition on the 17 goals, as well as on-demand discussions with industry leaders, United Nations representatives and advocates of the United Nations, including Detlef Braun, Member of the Executive Board, and Thimo Schwenzfeier, Director Marketing Communications Textiles and Textile Technologies at Messe Frankfurt, as well as from Kering, Lenzing, Allbirds, Arch and Hook, Artistic Milliners, Orta, ITL, Vogue Business, CFDA, Collina Strada and the Swarovski Foundation.

“This is a critical time to accelerate partnerships to address the world's biggest challenges – from eliminating poverty, hunger and inequalities to reversing climate change and unsustainable consumption and production practices,” said Annemarie Hou, acting Executive Director of the United Nations Office for Partnerships. “The fashion industry is an important ally for the United Nations in this Decade of Action to deliver the SDGs by 2030.”

Conscious Fashion Campaign becomes a presenting partner of Frankfurt Fashion Week
Joining forces to improve the fashion industry: Frankfurt Fashion Week is positioning itself as the host of the future of fashion and actively driving forward the transformation towards a future-oriented, more sustainable fashion and textile industry. All decision-makers looking to instigate this change will be coming together in Frankfurt am Main from 5-9 July 2021. The initiators of Frankfurt Fashion Week – Messe Frankfurt and the Premium Group – have achieved a real coup: Conscious Fashion Campaign, working in collaboration with the United Nations Office for Partnerships, will be the presenting partner. Messe Frankfurt will build on its collaboration with the United Nations Office for Partnerships. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) will be a prerequisite for exhibitors by 2023. And the Frankfurt Fashion SDG Summit by CFC is set to become the leading international conference for sustainability in the fashion world.

Expansion of internal sustainability communication
17 goals, 58 textile events worldwide, around 600,000 visitors and 23,000 exhibitors in 2019: with its global events, the Messe Frankfurt Texpertise Network offers unique reach for supporting the SDGs, even during the corona pandemic. The participating subsidiary companies, sales partners and Messe Frankfurt partners abroad who organise the relevant events play an important role in this. To actively expand knowledge about and further commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals, the Texpertise Network is organising several online seminars, including for staff members in Argentina, Ethiopia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Russia, South Africa and the USA and thus expanding its internal sustainability communication.

SDG actions up to now
Ever since the expanded collaboration between the Messe Frankfurt Texpertise Network, the Conscious Fashion Campaign and the United Nations Office for Partnerships was announced at the UN headquarters in New York in December 2019, the international Messe Frankfurt textile events have implemented numerous measures to support the SDGs.

At the Messe Frankfurt textile events in Germany alone, a number of things came to fruition: the most recent physical and digital editions of Heimtextil, the leading trade fair for home and contract textiles and Neonyt, global hub for fashion, sustainability and innovation, offered panel discussions, press conferences and video messages, including with the Conscious Fashion Campaign and United Nations Office for Partnerships. An SDG Lounge in the Green Village at Heimtextil and selfie walls with the SDGs inspired exhibitors, visitors and influencers alike to engage with the 17 goals and share them on their social network channels. Podcasts were produced that can still be listened to on the Neonyt and Heimtextil channels and Neonyt also hosted e.g. the influencer challenge “Let's wear the goals!”.

A great deal has also already been achieved internationally: in March 2019, Neonyt organised a showcase with selected Neonyt brands to mark the foundation of the “UN Alliance for Sustainable Fashion” in Nairobi. Techtextil India launched Techtextil NEXT at its 2019 edition, India’s first hackathon for technical textiles and sustainability. Among those who attended were Shrikar Dhole, founder and CEO of the SDG Foundation and Niharika Gautam, who campaigns for the achievement of the SDGs in the fashion industry and co-leads the fashion section of the All Ladies League Delhi. The Heimtextil Russia 2020 Digital Edition was able to attract a prominent figure to give a message of greeting, namely Vladimir Kuznetsov, head of the UN Information Centre (UNIC) in Moscow. The digital edition of Texworld USA (now Texworld New York City) and Apparel Sourcing USA in summer 2020 offered a talk by the Conscious Fashion Campaign and supported the production of a podcast with Claire Kells from the UN Global Compact.

With its SDG actions to date, Messe Frankfurt Texpertise Network is estimated to have reached around 146,000 visitors, 170,000 followers on social media channels and 65,000 subscribers to newsletters about participating events at home and abroad. Added to this is also the approx. 2.5 million followers of the influencers involved in the actions.

Cooperation and local production the new trend

Nairobi (GTAI) - China dominates infrastructure projects and the construction industry in East Africa. But now the Kingdom of the Middle is also intensifying its commitment in trade and industry.

The Chinese advance in East Africa is breathtakingly fast, focused, efficient and highly successful. The approach is simple: one makes a business proposal that meets the wishes of the decision-makers, brings everything with you, including financing, and the project will be brought out with Confucian efficiency.

Because the customer is satisfied, follow-up orders are being placed. And the more orders there are, the more Chinese activities are there that no longer have anything to do with the original project: Trade, housing construction and business start-ups. And the more the debt with Chinese financiers rises, the more their interest grows in ensuring that the debt can be serviced.

China is fast - on its terms
In Kenya, the Chinese breakthrough came with the comparatively short road from Nairobi to Thika. The international donor community was willing to finance a road construction project, but only at the usual terms, such as regular feasibility studies and tenders, but at favorable interest rates. During the term of office of the former acting President at the time, all this would not have been completed.

Meanwhile, the Chinese made a different offer: shortest construction time and commercial credit with free hand and political backing. Residence permits were issued in an urgent procedure, and work had already begun before necessary expropriations had been completed. Everything was brought along, even truck drivers and food. Deliveries were made on time for the end of the President's term of office.

If customers are satisfied, there are follow-up orders. For example, a new railway - the favorite project of the current Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta - is also being built, financed and operated by the Chinese. The usual donors, such as the World Bank, had previously declined because the project was unlikely to pay off economically. Thanks to Chinese commitment, the first route from Mombasa to Nairobi was completed in time for the presidential election campaign and could be marketed as a political success. The fact that, in the opinion of critics, that the section was three times as expensive as necessary, was not contested by the voters.

Chinese appearance in the ripening process
Chinese companies had learned a lot from the first road project: They now know what the Kenyan business world and industry can and can't do, what they need, how they tick, how to do business in Kenya and how to deal with bureaucracy and widespread corruption, what cartels and monopolies one has to fear and how to deal with them if necessary.

Thanks to this knowledge and preferential treatment in work permits, Chinese construction and trading companies were able to gain a foothold within a very short space of time. And the more Kenyan government orders go to Chinese companies and the more Chinese traders gain a foothold in Kenya, the more Chinese goods flood the country.

But not only that: Chinese companies have been founded to manufacture locally. In addition, hordes of Kenyan workers are employed or Kenyan goods are being purchased if they are cheaper and/or better, or, logistically speaking, can they be procured more quickly. Kenyan companies and workers have also learned what is important to the Chinese partners - a learning and maturing process on both sides. Some Chinese people have married local and want to stay.

State acquisition perfected
Meanwhile, Chinese companies have virtually "perfected" their government procurement, reports the leading Kenyan daily newspaper "The Nation" with a sarcastic undertone: Chinese acquirers use an English first name that can be remembered and pronounced and, accompanied by a politically well-connected "fixer", visit together a cabinet secretary or the head of a semi-state company and make a proposal for a major infrastructure project combined with the promise to provide the financing.

A "Memorandum of Understanding" is then signed very quickly, followed by a commercial contract with the responsible ministry. Then only the Ministry of Finance has to sign the loan agreement and the deal is perfect. Parliament, budget controllers and the state auditor are excluded. The fact that high commissions and so-called kickbacks (bribes) are being paid in these transactions is in the nature of things.

German companies that participate in Chinese projects may be familiar with this background and are therefore usually very cautious. In other words: German-Chinese business relations in East Africa are reluctantly hanged on the big bell, because the German reputation could suffer. The German-Chinese business relationships that have nevertheless become known are quite different but show a range of possibilities.

Professional cooperation without ideology
On the one hand, there are German companies which are based in China, either independently, as joint ventures or in the form of cooperation. Such companies are considered "Chinese" because they know the rules of the game, the correspondence can be conducted in Chinese and the bank account exists in China. Then there are other German companies with whom one has already worked successfully together in Germany or elsewhere in the world - so why not again? And there are German companies that have a lot of experience in Africa and are well networked, such as consulting firms that can take over construction supervision. It is often the Kenyan client who demands a neutral and professional watchdog.

Many German products are appreciated by the Chinese. If a German company in Kenya is successful with construction chemicals, a Chinese company will also like to come back on them. And if a German construction machine has the desired specifications, it is also being bought by Chinese people in Kenya.

Chinese companies are first and foremost concerned with business and not ideology. German products and services have a good reputation worldwide, even among Chinese people. If China did not used them for its first projects in East Africa, it was because of a lack of knowledge of what is locally available and what is not. In the meantime, this has changed dramatically. And like everywhere in business life, contacts count and they need time to be established.

Chinese are the new Indians
It can already be foreseen that the driving force behind new industrial projects in Kenya will no longer come from entrepreneurs of Indian origin, but from Chinese ones. Once planned Chinese-built industrial parks are completed, there will be a wave of Chinese investment. If these investors first look at Chinese technology, it is only because they are better acquainted with the Chinese market. Anyone who knows and appreciates German products, on the other hand, will know how to weigh up the commercial advantages and disadvantages. For example, one of the first Chinese industrial projects in Kenya, the building materials supplier China Wu Yi Precast, has primarily installed German technology.

Farthest in Ethiopia
What applies to Kenya also applies to Ethiopia, where the Chinese advance is already much further ahead. There, too, the Chinese have built a railway, much more modern and cheaper than in Kenya. And more importantly, they are building industrial parks throughout the country where international companies can find good conditions for low-wage production. The first textile, clothing and leather factories report successes. Food processing and pharmaceutical companies are coming in a second wave. Of course, there are many Chinese companies in it, but not only. And, of course, German companies have good sales opportunities if they make the appropriate marketing efforts.

In Uganda are Chinese traders who have been mixing up the local market. The great Chinese engagement will only come with the start of the oil production and when the Kenyan railway has reached the Ugandan border. In Tanzania, the Chinese currently have less to report because the incumbent president, who is committed to fighting corruption, wants it that way. Instead of Chinese, he gets his railroad built by Turks. Meanwhile, Djibouti has become so heavily indebted to China that its influence can no longer be stopped.

New tones from Beijing
While the Chinese progress all over East Africa - even without Tanzania - can no longer be stopped, it remains exciting to see to what extent new tones from Beijing will affect China's involvement in East Africa. The Chinese leadership has declared its intention to curb corruption in its own government. If it is serious about this, it will also have to introduce stricter rules in its East Africa business.

And then there is the "socialism with Chinese characteristics" propagated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, with which he wants to make the world happy. So far it has been Western Europe and North America that have aggressively propagated their democracy as a form of government and political ideology in Africa. It seems that Xi Jinping now wants to counter this with Chinese principles. Chinese reforms can also be expected in the areas of environmental protection and sustainability, which at some point will also affect Chinese Africa business.

Source: Research by Germany Trade & Invest

The entire study "China in Africa - Perspectives, Strategies and Cooperation Potentials for German Companies" is available free of charge: Print version under order number 21054 (32 pages) at Germany Trade & Invest, Kundencenter, Postfach 140116, 53056 Bonn, Germany, Telephone: 0228/24993-316, e-mail: vertrieb@gtai.de or as PDF document (german only) after short registration at http://www.gtai.de/china-in-afrika.

• Industrial parks should enable a quantum leap
• Progress in infrastructure, Deficits in foreign exchange provision

The Ethiopian textile, clothing and leather industry scores not only with comparatively low wages and high-performing personnel, but also with modern industrial parks. In the meantime the technology has to be fully imported and the supply of materials needs to be greatly expanded. There is a great progress in logistics, but unfortunately not in foreign exchange procurement. German suppliers of relevant equipment should definitely consider Ethiopia in their acquisition.

So far, only Mauritius has made a name for itself as a producer of high-quality clothing south of the Sahara. Attempts to locate textile and clothing companies in Namibia and Lesotho in a larger style have not been very successful. Meanwhile Kenya and Ghana have far too expensive production conditions. "Clothing companies are nomadic,” says a consultant, who is specializing in the trade, "they go where it's cheapest for them."

Meanwhile, Ethiopia offers several advantages: Wages and additional costs are far below the Chinese ones. A worker in the Ethiopian factories earns an average of USD 909 a year, according to a survey by the US Center for Global Development, compared to USD 835 in Bangladesh, USD 1,776 in Tanzania, and USD 2,118 in Kenya. Another advantage is appreciated by employees: Ethiopia has a long tradition of textile and clothing production as well as in leather processing and thus at least an expandable base of skilled workers.

The supply of native cotton and leather meanwhile is considered strongly expandable. In times of drought, such as in 2016 and partly in 2017, the supply of cotton is insufficient. However, the government is cooperative and increasingly open to the needs of producers. Thus, the infrastructure has been currently sustainably improved, in particular the transport routes to the seaport Djibouti, from where Europe is much faster to reach than from the Far East. In addition, the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa has a capable aviation hub with a dozen direct flights to the EU, including Frankfurt and Vienna. There is also a modern air freight center.

Modern industrial parks as a game changer

Just as important as the delivery routes are the "modern" production conditions in the emerging industrial centers all over the country, Made by China: pothole-free roads, guaranteed electricity and water supply, proper waste and wastewater disposal, workers' settlements in the vicinity. From the Ethiopian point of view, a great many jobs are created, families are fed and foreign exchange is earned.

According to its government, Ethiopia is in a transformation process away from an agrarian economy and towards an industrialized state. By 2025, the country should reach a "middle-income status" and become the largest industrial production hub in Africa. To achieve this, Ethiopia is investing heavily in roads, railways and power generation, in health and education, in urban and rural development, and in the creation of industrial clusters.

Ambitious export specifications

In July 2016 the Hawassa Industrial Park was officially opened, dedicated to the export of textiles and clothing, and is the largest industrial park in sub-Saharan Africa. As early as 2018, the park is expected to employ 60,000 workers and generate USD 1 billion in exports of clothing and textiles - a steep target given in a view of the current export figures. As early as 2030, Ethiopia wants to reach a total of USD 30 billion by exporting textiles and clothing - but it's still a long way off. At present, 15 in-ternational companies are already investing in Hawassa, including the US PVH Corporation (formerly Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, prominent brands: Calvin Klein and Tommy Hilfinger) and Epic Group (Hong Kong), a supplier of, among others, Walmart , JC Penny, Levi Strauss, VF Corporation, Tesco, Sansbury's, Marks & Spencer and C & A. Epic wanted to go to Kenya first, but then decided for Ethiopia at the last minute, which, according to Epic boss Ranjan Mahtani, is "still unpolished," but has the most potential.

The challenges are considered to be high: "Our seam-stresses have never got a job before and have never seen a sewing machine," Mahtani says training therefore is a top priority. At the same time, however, his company also relies on state-of-the-art automatic machines, for example for attaching bags. The production halls are also all around computerized with RFID technology. The current efficiency Mahtani estimates at 25 to 30 percent. After experience with other production sites, results of 75 to 80 percent are possible after about ten years.

Wide range of new industrial parks under construction

In July 2017, another industrial park was opened in Kombolcha City. A whole range of other parks are in various stages of realization and all are focused on the apparel, textile, pharmaceutical and medical device manufacturing sectors. According to the Ethiopian Government, there is no shortage of interested investors from the PR of China, India, Turkey, the US, Hong Kong and South Korea. Ethiopia benefits from the African Growth and Opportunity Act of the United States, which, for example, reduces its import duties by 16.8 per cent on cotton pants and 30 per cent on synthetic shirts. In addition, Ethiopia has a duty-free access to the EU market under the Everything-but-Arms initiative.

Source: Comtrade, as of 18 October 2017

Note: The import figures mentioned above are based on Ethiopian data, which for various reasons are not considered particularly reliable. Equally not reliable are often the relevant export data of the partner countries, because all sea transports go via Djibouti and deliveries statistically are recorded often as exports to Djibouti.
Source: UN Comtrade, as of 18 October 2017

German exports expandable

German exporters of technology for the textile, clothing and leather industries are not yet well positioned in Ethiopia. According to the preliminary figures of the Federal Statistical Office (SITCM 724), in 2016 only EUR 1.06 mio of relevant technology went to Ethiopia, compared to EUR 1.05 mio in the previous year and EUR 5.02 mio in 2015.

• Morocco, Ethiopia and South Africa: Network comprises the most important textile regions in Africa
• Emerging continent: positive forecasts in the textile sector

First Ethiopia, then South Africa and shortly Morocco: Messe Frankfurt is expanding its portfolio of textile trade fairs on the African continent. With its forthcoming cooperation with the two trade fairs Maroc in Mode and Maroc Sourcing, the global market leader for textile trade fairs is expanding its presence in North West Africa. ‘In future, our network will extend across important textile regions in Africa and encompass the leading trade fairs on the emerging continent’, explains Olaf Schmidt, Vice President Textiles & Textile Technologies at Messe Frankfurt. ‘With our commitment to Ethiopia, South Africa and, in future, Morocco, we have created excellent conditions to support the positive developments in Africa's textile industry’. Demographic change, increasing urbanisation and shifts in economic forces - these global developments are promoting the growth of the African economy and having a significant impact on the textile industry.

According to the UN Economic Report on Africa 2017, Africa has the fastest growing population. The current population of around 1.2 billion people will more than double by 2050. The number of working people on the African continent is also increasing rapidly. The largest working population (1.1 billion) in the world is predicted to be in Africa by 2034. These demographic changes are causing personal and business consumption to increase sharply, and this will primarily benefit regional economic markets. 

Morocco: Maroc in Mode & Maroc Sourcing

Morocco in particular offers great potential for the clothing trade: Morocco's proximity to important fashion markets such as the EU and the USA, various free trade agreements and a recent economic growth rate of four per cent (between 2010 and 2015, Nachrichten für den Außenhandel, NfA, 19 January 2017) create a secure business climate. The Maroc in Fashion and Maroc Sourcing trade fairs, which have been in existence since 2014, currently showcase around 120 exhibitors from Morocco, Tunisia, Egypt, Turkey, China and a number of Western European countries. The extensive product portfolio inspires with its strong expertise in fashion. The trade fairs are regarded as a hotspot for fast fashion and not only present fashion, denim, lingerie and knitwear, but also sports and casualwear, workwear and accessories. Messe Frankfurt will agree on a cooperation with AMITH (Association Marocaine des Industries du Textile et de l’Habillement), the organiser of the event, for the next edition. The trade fair will take place on 26-27 October 2017 at the Exhibition Park Hassan Circuit in Marrakesh. 

South Africa: Source Africa & ATF Expo

South Africa is the continent's strongest economic power and one of the largest consumer markets. The country has the most powerful retail sector and is the best networked of all African countries. This international networking and its regional free trade agreements make South Africa an important hub for trade with other African countries as well as neighbouring Pacific countries such as the Arabian Peninsula and India.

With the recently approved takeover of the Source Africa and ATF fairs, Messe Frankfurt is driving the exchange between international and regional buyers, manufacturers and suppliers in this region. Source Africa was founded in 2014 as a trade fair for African producers of fabrics, accessories, clothing, shoes and leather items. It appeals not only to African trade buyers but also to international manufacturers of clothing and fashion. The fifth edition of the fair will take place on 20-21 June 2018 at the International Convention Center (CTICC) in Cape Town. ATF Expo will open its doors at the same venue from  21 to 23 November 2017. Ever since 1998, this trade fair has offered an internationally-oriented product range of fabrics, clothing, shoes, leather goods and accessories as well as services for a predominantly local and regional purchasing community.

Ethiopia: successful start for Texworld, Apparel Sourcing and Texprocess

In eastern Africa, Ethiopia has developed into an attractive contract manufacturing country for clothing and leather goods thanks to the government's strategy of focusing on light industry. Ethiopia also benefits from free trade agreements such as AGOA that are aimed at promoting the African economy. With the Africa Sourcing and Fashion Week (ASFW), Messe Frankfurt has had a strong partner at its side ever since the latest edition in October 2017. Offshoots of the three trade fair brands Texworld, Apparel Sourcing and Texprocess were integrated into the Africa Sourcing & Fashion Week for the first time. It is a sourcing platform for mainly European and US fashion companies. The seventh edition brought together around 200 international exhibitors from 25 countries in Addis Ababa's Millennium Hall. Clothing fabrics, contract manufacturing, fashion and accessories were exhibited as well as machinery for contract manufacturing, CAD/CAM systems, printers, printing inks and accessories. In addition, the trade fair also impressed visitors with a fashion show, a series of lectures, a trend section and a matchmaking platform.

Messe Frankfurt: A strong presence in global textile markets

With a portfolio of over 50 international textile trade fairs, Messe Frankfurt is the global market leader in trade fairs for the textile industry. In 2016, around 19,500 exhibitors and approx. 477,000 visitors came to the events in Europe, North America and Asia. With the name Texpertise Network, the textile event offer of Messe Frankfurt covers the entire value creation chain – from apparel fabrics and fashion to home and contract textiles, technical textiles and the processing and care of textiles. The trade fairs include the successful brands Texworld, Apparel Sourcing, Ethical Fashion Show, Greenshowroom, Intertextile, Yarn Expo, Leatherworld, Emitex, Avantex, Avanprint, Heimtextil, Intertextile Home Textiles, Interior Lifestyle, Home Textiles Sourcing, Techtextil, Texprocess, Simatex, Confemaq and Texcare.

Maroc in Mode & Maroc Sourcing: www.marocsourcing.ma
Source Africa & AFT: www.sourceafrica.co.za / www.atfexpo.co.za
Africa Sourcing & Fashion Week: www.asfw-online.com

• Vietnam is largest beneficiary
• Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

Labor costs in China will not move down again. Even when the economic growth increasingly weakens, China's coastal regions are already often too expensive for wage-intensive productions. The world's largest location of the manufacturing sector will anyway leave its dependence of exports and will generate more growth through domestic consumption. The remaining companies are therefore increasingly focused on Chinese customers. Has the textile industry heard the signals already several years ago and shifted away, now the electronics companies have started to search.

But – the relocation of production is not so easy, the experts agreed upon at the discussion panel Shifting Supply Chains in Asia on the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong. Because no country, except India, offers such a workforce. But neither the infrastructure and the investment climate can match, nor the country has any interest in low-production stages. Furthermore China has set up a supply industry without any comparison.

Relocation trends slow down

Even Bangladesh, established for a long time as a cheap location for clothes, is losing its attractiveness - experts say. Besides fundamentally difficult production conditions especially scandals like collapsing factories are responsible. No western clothing manufacturer likes to be associated with that repute today. While Indonesia was generally judged for being rather little investment friendly, the Philippines would provide a better reputation than years ago. So in addition to numerous Japanese producers also German companies have moved from southern China to the special areas of the Philippines.

Due to wage cost increases by an average of 15% per year, China with it’s the low-wage area has catapulted itself in a large extent out of the market. In times of rising productivity this was compensated for a while but at last the model came to its limits. The empire of the middle will therefore make the leap to a consumptionbased growth based on production of high-tech and on the provision of services. It is still
unclear whether this leap across the "middleincome trap" will succeed. Many emerging countries are caught in this trap, and the growth is flagging.

German buyers order less in China

Accordingly German retailers are increasingly reducing their imports from China and buy more and more in other countries. This is the result of a member survey of the Foreign Trade Association of German Retailers (AVE), at which for the most part textile and shoe retailers participated. 80% of the respondents have already reduced their import volume from China in 2015, 90% of the companies said they are
planning to source from other supply regions. The merchants are seeing a shift to countries like Myanmar (78%), Bangladesh (67%) and Vietnam (56%).

Vietnam, which already benefited in recent years from the relocation, was still recommended on the AFF as a top location. The country with the highest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2015 would have risen in the 1st half of 2015 to the fourth-largest exporter of textiles, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) analyzed. For shoes it is already the third largest supplier worldwide. Based on mega investments from Samsung, now the electronics industry came out of the starting blocks and should attract more activities. Experts cite especially the mixture of young, growing populations with low labor costs as an important locational advantage.

Vietnam benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTA)

A thrust Vietnam's attractiveness currently receives through free trade agreements which are in a final stage. So a free trade agreement with the European Union was signed in December 2015 which was followed early February 2016 by the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The latter agreement, which includes next to ten other Pacific neighbors the United States, should bring a large benefit for Vietnam. For the Vietnamese consumer goods manufacturers the US is the most important market, the large retailers in the United States can move their procurements very fast.

As an underdeveloped member Vietnam is likely to get larger portions of the value chain in the textile and electronics area at the ratification (and even before). The country is still missing a developed supplier structure. This is just happening to be built in the textile sector, there are investments in capacity for yarns, fabrics and dyeing going on. For Samsung, the largest foreign investor, all components are still coming
from China. And only when a large proportion of the added value comes from TPP member states, the low duty will become applicable.

While the purchasing power is not quite so big in Europe, costs play an important role also there. But next to it the control of the supply chain and the flexibility has developed a greater role, rapid changes of trends and collections are determined by customers and the Internet. Therefore also here a shift back, closer to the markets, has begun. Romania and Bulgaria have established themselves in the middle of
Europe as a "low-wage locations". But even there the population is characterized by aging. Accordingly labor forces will become scare and wages will rise. Ukraine is traded as a new location.

Africa still with small potential

Little potential the experts from the Supply Chain Panels evidence the location of sub-Saharan Africa. This was tested by some buyers or producers, but the results would not be convincing. The views however diverge. Some Chinese companies are already partly on site and American manufacturers are monitoring the further development. So, for example, the VF Corporation, the largest denim retailer in the world, is buying in Africa. Only Ethiopia would have potential - according to a representative. But the infrastructure, investment climate and working morale could not be comparable.

So - basically serious alternatives to the established locations are lacking. Therefore, due to the scarcity of labor, costs and thus the final prices will rise. Even in Vietnam the minimum wage increased by 15% in 2015. But when it will be hardly possible to turn at the purchase screw, the companies need to position themselves better in marketing and sales, so a large clothing buyer. Therefore social media must be used in order to come closer to the customer and, for example, to develop individualization as a selling point.

Source: McKinsey survey of chief purchasing managers