From the Sector

RUDOLF HUB1922 makes a move in response to the escalating demand for genuinely sustainable technologies, particularly from forward-thinking segments within the textile and apparel industry. In a showcase at Denim by Premiere Vision Milan, RUDOLF HUB1922 presents a pioneering range of textile chemistry that embodies true evolution.

This chemistry marks a milestone in addressing the pressing need for sustainable solutions. By harnessing raw materials derived from organic waste, plastic waste, and renewable feedstock, RUDOLF's latest textile innovations stand poised to transform the industry, promising a substantial reduction in its environmental footprint.

Alberto De Conti, Head of RUDOLF HUB1922, emphasizes the radical nature of evolutionary textile chemistry, stating, "RUDOLF's approach tackles the challenge of waste generation head-on by transforming waste materials into valuable resources". The diversion of waste and renewable feedstock away from landfills and incinerators to fuel textile chemical production is a game-changer, that diminishes the industry's reliance on non-renewable resources and endorses a circular economy model.

The successful integration of chemicals derived from organic and plastic waste, as well as renewable feedstocks, necessitates effective communication and education. Herein lies the significance of fostering collaborative efforts within the industry. De Conti underscores this point, stating, "Collaboration among scientists, fashion designers, and manufacturers is paramount. It propels a collective shift towards sustainable practices, making eco-friendly fashion the standard and minimizing the industry's environmental impact".

• Revenue of EUR 1.25 bn and EBITDA of EUR 136.5 mn in the first half of 2023
• EBITDA and net result for the period significantly improved compared with the first quarter of 2023
• Cost-cutting program and measures to strengthen sales activities being implemented as planned
• Liquidity position strengthened by successful capital increase and extension of credit terms
• Production of TENCEL™ brand modal fibers successfully launched in China

The business performance of the Lenzing Group, a leading global supplier of specialty fibers for the textile and nonwoven industries, largely reflected the subdued market trends in the first half of 2023. After the market environment deteriorated significantly in the second half of 2022, signs of recovery were evident during the first and second quarters of 2023 in terms of both raw material and energy costs as well as demand. Textile fibers recorded improving demand, and business with nonwoven fibers and with dissolving wood pulp proved to be very stable.

Outlook
The war in Ukraine and the more restrictive monetary policy pursued by many central banks in order to combat inflation are expected to continue to influence global economic activity. The IMF warns that risks remain elevated overall and forecasts growth of 3 percent for both 2023 and 2024. The currency environment is expected to remain volatile in the regions of relevance to Lenzing.

This market environment continues to weigh on the consumer climate and on sentiment in the industries relevant to Lenzing. Recently, however, the outlook brightened somewhat according to a global survey by the ITMF.*

In the trend-setting market for cotton, signs are emerging of a further buildup of stocks in the current 2022/23 crop season. Initial forecasts also see a further buildup of stocks in 2023/24, albeit to a lesser extent.

However, despite signs of recovery in both demand and raw material and energy costs, earnings visibility remains limited overall.

Lenzing is fully on track with the implementation of its reorganization and cost-cutting program. These and further measures are aimed at positioning Lenzing in the best possible way for the expected market recovery.

In structural terms, Lenzing continues to anticipate growth in demand for environmentally responsible fibers for the textile and clothing industry as well as the hygiene and medical sectors. As a consequence, Lenzing is very well positioned with its “Better Growth” strategy and plans to continue driving growth with specialty fibers as well as its sustainability goals, including the transformation from a linear to a circular economy model.

The successful implementation of the key projects in Thailand and Brazil as well as the investment projects in China and Indonesia will further strengthen Lenzing’s positioning in this respect.

Taking into consideration the aforementioned factors and assuming a further market recovery in the current financial year, the Lenzing Group continues to expect EBITDA in a range between EUR 320 mn and EUR 420 mn for 2023.

*Source: ITMF, 21st Global Textile Industry Survey, July 2023

ERCA, Patagonia® and YKK announce the implementation of ERCA’s REVECOL®, a sustainable, innovative chemical agent, in YKK’s dyeing processes at their Vietnam production sites transforms common waste material, such as exhausted vegetable cooking oil, into an upcycled, certified high performance, safe textile chemical. ERCA has invested in circular practices to take waste material and use them as feedstocks to create new responsible chemical products.

Always searching for new sustainable innovations, REVECOL® caught the attention of Patagonia®. Driven by the goal to utilize non-extractive chemistry in their supply chain wherever possible, the brand teamed up with ERCA and trim supplier YKK to deploy REVECOL®.

REVECOL® LV-TS has a carbon footprint that is 72% lower* than the more conventional chemical auxiliaries produced by ERCA. Today ERCA produces a wide range of high-performance chemical auxiliaries made from used vegetable oil that are ZDHC, bluesign® approved and GRS certified.

ERCA is one of the first companies to have GRS certified chemical products, opening the door to circular chemical auxiliaries.

As part of their Sustainability Vision 2050, YKK is constantly working to deploy more sustainable chemical processes in their production. The ability to replace a commonly used dye chemical with a lower impact version was a no-brainer for YKK’s Vietnam management. REVECOL® is not only more sustainable, it is also more efficient, reducing the use of the dyeing auxiliary by 20% to 30%, thus  helping to lower YKK’s overall chemical usage.

* bluesign® Product Carbon Footprint Report

• Revenue grows to EUR 623.1 mn – fiber sales recovered over the course of the quarter
• EBITDA and net result for the period down compared with the first quarter of 2022
• Cost reduction program of more than EUR 70 mn being implemented according to plan
• Production of TENCEL™ brand modal fibers successfully launched in China
• Lenzing confirms guidance for 2023

The business performance of the Lenzing Group during the first quarter of 2023 largely reflected market trends. However, after the market environment had deteriorated significantly in the third and fourth quarters of the previous year, signs of recovery emerged during the first quarter in terms of demand as well as raw material and energy costs. Textile fibers recorded moderate but steadily improving demand. Business with fibers for nonwovens and with dissolving wood pulp performed better than expected. Raw material and energy costs were still at an elevated albeit decreasing level.

Outlook
The war in Ukraine and the more restrictive monetary policy pursued by many central banks in order to combat inflation are expected to continue to influence global economic activity. The IMF warns that risks remain elevated overall and forecasts growth of 2.8 and 3 percent for 2023 and 2024 respectively. The currency environment is expected to remain volatile in the regions relevant to Lenzing.

This market environment continues to weigh on the consumer climate and on sentiment in the industries relevant to Lenzing. However, the outlook has brightened somewhat recently.

Demand picked up tangibly after the Chinese New Year. As a consequence, capacity utilization improved and stocks were further reduced both at viscose producers and at downstream stages of the value chain.

In the trend-setting market for cotton, signs are emerging of a further buildup of stocks in the current 2022/23 crop season. Initial forecasts for 2023/24 anticipate a more balanced relationship between supply and demand.

However, despite signs of recovery in both demand and raw material and energy costs, earnings visibility remains limited overall.

Lenzing is fully on track with the implementation of the reorganization and cost reduction program. These and other measures are aimed at positioning Lenzing in the best possible way for the expected market recovery.

Structurally, Lenzing continues to anticipate growth in demand for environmentally responsible fibers for the textile and clothing industry as well as for the hygiene and medical sectors. As a consequence, Lenzing is very well positioned with its “Better Growth” strategy and plans to continue driving growth with specialty fibers as well as its sustainability goals, including the transformation from a linear to a circular economy model.

The successful implementation of the key projects in Thailand and Brazil as well as the investment projects in China and Indonesia will further strengthen Lenzing’s positioning in this respect.

Taking into account the aforementioned factors and assuming a further market recovery in the current financial year, the Lenzing Group continues to expect EBITDA in a range between EUR 320 mn and EUR 420 mn for 2023.

For the SS24 Iluna focuses on the most precious lightness and intangibility with its Ultralight series of jacquardtronic laces reminiscent of the delicacy of Leavers.
This season, responsible developments did not stop at responsible ingredients and processes; in fact, the company focused on the circular economy! The stylistic research started from the company's historical archive, to give life to a collection that revisits the proposals in a "modern classic" key.
 
The company's design team recreated the iconic designs of the line, the heart of the Black Label proposal, ILUNA's signature line offering the finest laces. Focusing on upcycling, the team reworked archival stocks, creating new value through finishings, and reweaving from scratch only the missing widths in order to present a complete, coordinated underwear/nightwear range from allovers to galoons.

For the SS24 season the Iluna team continues its developments with GOTS-certified organic cotton in its galoons and allovers, to add a natural touch to its Green Label line.
Among the ingredients chosen by Iluna Group are: Renycle® and Q-NOVA®, both GRS-certified pre-consumer recycled polyamide yarns in addition to the recycled stretch ROICA™ EF by Asahi Kasei. Among the new technical developments on laces, Iluna then worked on variable elasticity modules, resulting in reinforced edges or zones of differentiated elasticity that can be variously positioned within the laces.
All this results in a comfortable, ultralight product that remains true to a high value of creativity and responsibility. The option is applicable to all the Iluna laces, with modular solutions at the customer's request on fashion items as well, where research continues on FSC-certified pre-dyed viscoses and unexpected metallic gleams with lurex.

Moreover, the continuous path through the new dimension of responsibility continues in several directions: experiments with 16 different natural dyestuffs; and continued investment in technologies that can ensure significant savings in water and energy consumption, including GREENDROP, the new GOTS-certified digital pigment printing system.
From athleisure to fashion, through lingerie to the world of high fashion, Iluna's lace continues to expand its applications, confirming its extreme versatility, remarkable performance and inimitable beauty.

Fibre Extrusion Technology Limited (FET) of Leeds, England has installed a FET-200LAB wet spinning system at the University of Manchester which will play a major part in advanced materials research to support sustainable growth and development.

This research programme will be conducted by The Henry Royce Institute, which operates as a hub model at The University of Manchester with spokes at other leading research universities in the UK.

The Henry Royce Institute identifies challenges and stimulates innovation in advanced UK materials research, delivering positive economic and societal impact. In particular, this materials research initiative is focused on supporting and promoting all forms of sustainable growth and development.
These challenges range from biomedical devices through to plastics sustainability and energy-efficient devices; hence supporting key national targets such as the UK’s zero-carbon 2050 target.

FET-200 Series wet spinning systems complement FET’s renowned range of melt spinning equipment. The FET-200LAB is a laboratory scale system, which is especially suitable for the early stages of formulation and process development. It is used for processing new functional textile materials in a variety of solvent and polymer combinations.

In particular, the FET-200LAB will be utilised in trials for a family of fibres made from wood pulp, a sustainable resource rather than the usual fossil fuels. Bio-based polymers are produced from biomass feedstocks such as cellulose and are commonly used in the manufacture of high end apparel. The key to cellulose and other materials like lyocell and viscose is that they can be recycled, treated and fed back into the wet spinning system for repeat manufacture.

Established in 1998, FET is a leading supplier of laboratory and pilot melt spinning systems with installations in over 35 countries and has now successfully processed more than 35 different polymer types in multifilament, monofilament and nonwoven formats.

Stahl, an active proponent of responsible chemistry, has been awarded the highest EcoVadis Platinum rating, placing it within the top 1% of companies assessed by EcoVadis. The award underlines Stahl’s commitment to collaborating with its partners to reduce its environmental impact and build a more responsible and transparent supply chain.

EcoVadis is a globally recognized evidence-based assessment platform that reviews the performance of more than 90,000 organizations across key sustainability criteria. These include environmental impact, labor and human rights standards, ethics, and sustainable procurement practices. The latest report from EcoVadis highlights Stahl’s positive progress across all these areas and builds on the Gold rating achieved by the company in 2021. Stahl’s 2030 target is to maintain the EcoVadis Platinum rating by working closely with its value-chain partners to help them reduce their environmental impact – including by supporting their transition to renewable feedstocks. In 2021, 80% of Stahl’s total spend on raw materials was supplied by EcoVadis-rated suppliers.
 
The new EcoVadis rating comes as Stahl accelerates its efforts to ensure a more responsible and transparent supply chain. Recent steps toward this goal have included establishing a dedicated Supply Chain Transparency division within the company’s Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) department. The division will be tasked with coordinating a new product development framework that prioritizes the responsible sourcing of raw materials. Furthermore, in July 2022, Stahl submitted a new greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction target, including a specific commitment regarding the company’s Scope 3 upstream emissions. Stahl aims to reduce these by at least 25% over the next 10 years, compared with the base year (2021). Stahl expects to achieve this reduction primarily by working with its suppliers to replace fossil-based raw materials with lower-carbon alternatives.

Cotton Incorporated published its monthly economic letter of August and shared new insights of the cotton prices:

Cotton prices continue to be caught between the two competing storylines that have been in play for the past several months.
On one side, there is the deteriorating global macroeconomic situation.  The International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its projection for global economic growth in both 2022 (3.2%) and 2023 (2.9%) in the updates released in late July.  Current IMF forecasts are significantly beneath those from January (called for 4.4% growth in 2022 and 3.8% growth in 2023) and April (called for 3.6% growth in 2022 and 3.6% growth in 2023).  The evolution in the macroeconomy was a likely factor contributing to the shift in investors’ outlook on the commodity sector, which led to a collapse in prices for cotton and a range of other commodities in June and July.

Beyond the weakening macroeconomic environment, there also may be factors associated with cotton supply chains that could affect demand during the 2022/23 crop year.  Downstream consumer markets for cotton can be viewed as more discretionary than other spending categories, such as food, energy, and lodging, that experienced some of the sharpest effects of inflation.  Given price increases for necessities, consumers may have less income to devote to apparel and home furnishings.

In the U.S., consumer spending on clothing has been flat for the past year.  However, it has been holding at levels that are 25% higher than they were in 2019.  If U.S. consumers pull back on clothing purchases, it may hit the market just as retailers have caught up with consumer demand after the onset of the shipping crisis.  In weight volume, the cotton contained in U.S. apparel imports was up 22% year-over-year in the first half of 2022.  Relative to 2019 (pre-COVID and pre-shipping crisis), the volume in the first half of 2022 was up 23%.  Given strong import volumes, if there is a dip in consumer demand, inventory could build both at retail and upstream in supply chains.  This could lead to cancelations, potentially all the way back to the fiber level, where contracts signed at prices higher than current values could be particularly susceptible.

Tight U.S. supply is on the other side of price direction arguments.  Cotton is drought tolerant, and that is why it can be viably grown in perennially dry locations like West Texas.  However, cotton requires some moisture to germinate and generate healthy yields.  West Texas has had very little rain over the past year, and drought conditions have been extreme.  As a result, abandonment is forecast to be widespread.  It remains to be seen exactly how small the U.S. crop will be, but the current USDA forecast predicts only 12.6 million bales in 2022/23 (-5.0 million fewer bales than in 2021/22).

Meanwhile, demand for U.S. cotton has been relatively consistent, near 18 million bales over the past five crop years (an average of 15.5 million bales of exports and 2.7 million bales of domestic mill-use).  A harvest of only 12.6 million falls well short of the recent average for exports alone, and U.S. stocks were near multi-decade lows coming into 2022/23.  All these statistics suggest shipments from the world’s largest exporter may have to be rationed in 2022/23.  If cotton is not readily available from other sources, the scarcity of supply from the U.S. could support prices globally.

Simultaneously, there is weakness from the demand side.  The market has struggled to find the balance between the weakened demand environment and limited exportable supply in recent months.  The conflict between these two influences makes it difficult to discern a clear direction for prices and suggests continued volatility.

SUPPLY, DEMAND, & TRADE
The latest USDA report featured reductions to figures for both world production and mill-use for both the 2021/22 and 2022/23 crop years.  For 2021/22, the global production estimate was lowered -0.7 million bales (to 116.2 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.9 million bales (to 119.8 million).  For 2022/23, the global production forecast was lowered -1.2 million bales (to 120.7 million) and global consumption was lowered -1.6 million bales (to 119.9 million).

With the decreases in use exceeding the declines in production, figures for global ending stocks increased.  For 2021/22, the projection rose +1.1 million bales (to 84.0 million).  For 2022/23, the forecast increased +1.6 million bales (to 84.3 million).

At the country-level, the largest changes to 2021/22 production were for Brazil (-400,000 bales to 12.3 million) and Uzbekistan (-100,00 bales to 2.7 million).  The largest changes for the 2022/23 harvest were for the U.S. (-1.0 million bales to 15.5 million) and Brazil (-200,000 bales to 13.0 million).

It may be notable that there were no upward country-level revisions for mill-use in either 2021/22 or 2022/23.  The largest revisions for 2021/22 included those for China (-1.0 million to 37.0 million), Vietnam (-400,000 bales to 6.9 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 to 8.0 million), Pakistan (-100,000 bales to 10.9 million), and Uzbekistan (-100,000 bales to 2.7 million).  For 2022/23, consumption estimates were lowered for China (-500,000 bales to 37.5 million), India (-500,000 bales to 25.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.6 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.1 million).
The global trade forecast for 2022/23 was lowered -1.1 million bales (to 46.4 million).  The most significant changes on the import side included those for China (-500,000 bales to 10.0 million), Bangladesh (-300,000 bales to 8.5 million), and Vietnam (-300,000 bales to 7.2 million).  On the export side, the largest updates included those for the U.S. (-500,000 bales to 14.0 million) and Australia (+300,000 bales to 6.0 million).
 
PRICE OUTLOOK
Recent volatility was not limited to the cotton market.  A wide range of commodities lost significant value in June.  Between June 9th and July 5th (dates chosen unsystematically to describe the magnitude of declines), cotton fell -25% (NY/ICE December futures), corn fell -19% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), soybeans fell -17% (Chicago Board of Trade, November contract), wheat fell -25% (Chicago Board of Trade, December contract), copper fell -20% (London Metal Exchange, nearby), and Brent crude oil fell -12% (ICE, nearby).

The breadth of losses throughout the commodity sector suggests a sea change in investor sentiment for the entire category.  The effects of inflation, the withdrawal of stimulus, rising interest rates, and concerns about a possible recession could all be reasons explaining a reversal of speculative bets, and all could be contributors to the losses.  While the macroeconomic environment can be expected to continue to weigh on prices, there are also supportive forces for the market that are specific to cotton.

The current USDA forecast for U.S. cotton production is 15.5 million bales, and it may get smaller over time because of the severe drought in West Texas.  The current harvest figure is two million bales lower than the 2021/22 number and is equal to the five-year average for U.S. cotton exports (2017/18-2021/22).  On top of exports, the U.S. will need to supply domestic mills with 2.5 million bales.  The last time the U.S. had a severely drought-impacted crop (2020/21), the harvest was only 14.6 million bales.  In that crop year, the U.S. was able to export more than it grew because it had accumulated stocks in the previous year.  The U.S. is coming into the 2022/23 crop year with low stocks.  This suggests U.S. shipments may have been rationed.  Since the U.S. is the world’s largest exporter, this may lend some support to prices internationally.

On June 13, EREMA Group and Borealis invited representatives of the international plastics and recycling trade press to Upper Austria for a sneak preview of the technological developments and lighthouse projects that the companies will present at K 2022, the plastics industry's international meeting place. The venue for the pre-K event was EREMA Group headquarters in Ansfelden.

EREMA Group K 2022 preview
In Düsseldorf, the subsidiaries of the EREMA Group - which are EREMA, PURE LOOP, UMAC, 3S, KEYCYCLE and PLASMAC - will present their technological innovations, services and support together at a Group trade fair stand for the first time. Seven new recycling systems and components will be presented that enable large-scale plants with a production capacity of up to 6 t/h while setting a milestone in recyclate quality and process stability. This is made possible by technological innovations in the plasticizing unit that have been specially developed for high throughputs with low specific energy consumption, the new EREMA 406 laser filter with a 50 percent larger screening area, and new digital assistance systems that will be launched at K 2022 and made available on the BluPort® customer platform. These include, for example, the PredictOn app, which helps to anticipate and eliminate imminent malfunctions based on continuous measurement and evaluation of machine data.

New series of machines for new target groups
For customers looking for rapidly available recycling systems for simple applications, EREMA Group subsidiary UMAC has an innovation in store for K 2022. The company, which has so far specialised in refurbishing and trading in previously owned equipment, is expanding its business area and in Düsseldorf will launch READYMAC, a standardised, prefabricated recycling solution that can be produced from stock, based on proven EREMA TVE technology.

Finally, in the inhouse recycling segment, PURE LOOP and PLASMAC will round off the wide range of machines offered by the group of companies with their product portfolio.

Live recycling and lighthouse projects at the Circonomic Center
In the outdoor area of the K show, EREMA will bring plastics recycling to life with live demonstrations in conjunction with cooperation partners. Different waste streams are processed for this purpose. The wide variety of high-quality applications for recyclate will be showcased in the "products made of recyclate" exhibition, ranging from technical components to consumer goods and food packaging.

Borealis – accelerating the transition towards a more circular future
Borealis is committed to using their expertise and global reach to advance the circular economy of plastics. At the joint Pre-K 2022 kick-off on June 13, Borealis provided a preview of their integrated way of circular thinking and featured topics and activities at the K Fair 2022 in October. The preview covered new technologies and innovations including new packaging and infrastructure applications of the Bornewables™ portfolio of circular polyolefin products, manufactured with renewable feedstocks. New applications for Design for Recyclability, Re-Use, chemical recycling and advanced mechanical recycling were also on display.