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12.10.2021

Making companies crisis-proof: Resilience as an extended security concept

Companies today face a variety of increasingly complex risks. Not least the pandemic has shown how crises can pose an existential threat to companies. The FReE tool of the Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, allows companies to measure their resilience and subsequently be prepared for upcoming crisis scenarios.
 

Companies today face a variety of increasingly complex risks. Not least the pandemic has shown how crises can pose an existential threat to companies. The FReE tool of the Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI, allows companies to measure their resilience and subsequently be prepared for upcoming crisis scenarios.
 
Our world is highly complex and prone to disruption: Natural disasters, cyberattacks, power outages, terrorist attacks, pandemics and other crisis scenarios can threaten companies existentially. The corona pandemic has shown us how vulnerable the German economy really is: According to the Federal Statistical Office, in 2020 the economy fell into a deep recession after ten years of growth; especially in the second quarter of 2020, economic output saw a historic slump. There will be other crises after this pandemic. The classic methods of risk analysis and risk management, which only take into account expected risks, do not adequately protect companies against major losses.

“Companies often only consider the most likely scenarios rather than focusing on possible crisis events,“ says Daniel Hiller, Head of business unit Security and Resilience at Fraunhofer EMI in Freiburg. Teams at Fraunhofer are establishing resilience as a new security concept to help prepare organizations and companies for crises. The results of their research work include the online tool Fraunhofer Resilience Evaluator FReE and the KMU-Lagebild software, both designed to enable companies to measure and evaluate their resilience and to carry out a resilience analysis before, during and after a disruptive event.
 
The five-stage concept “Prepare, Prevent, Protect, Respond and Recover”
The online tool FReE allows companies to plan resilience strategically, to implement the abstract concept in their company and to put it into practice on management level. FReE is based on the five-stage concept “Prepare, Prevent, Protect, Respond and Recover.”  

The software comes with a list of 68 questions related to the five resilience stages. The answers provide the company with some initial information needed to assess resilience. The five stages are ordered chronologically, starting with a what-if scenario. During this Prepare stage companies prepare for disruptive situations, which helps avert damage using preventive measures during the Prevent stage.

“An aluminum processing plant, for example, might want to protect its premises with security fences and cameras, because thieves usually break in at night to steal aluminum,“ says Hiller, illustrating the first two stages using a classic example. The Protect stage, as the name suggests, aims to protect; this might include safeguarding important infrastructures or buildings with additional concrete layers or walls. If it was not possible to stave off the disaster, the Respond stage comes into play. It is now important to quickly identify the cause and extent of the damage and to preserve critical supply functions. After the incident, companies should systematically draw lessons from the crisis in order to be better able to avert future risks and to boost their resilience in a cyclical iterative process – researchers call this stage Learn and Adapt.
 
The FReE tool takes the user through the list of questions, which are ordered chronologically into the sections before, during and after a disruption and cover all company divisions. These including personnel, finance, infrastructure and technology. The tool allows you to filter by division during the evaluation process. “For example, a controller can set the filter such that only results related to finance are shown,” says Hiller. Possible questions include: “Is there a disaster manager in the event of a disruption?“, “What are their qualifications and powers?” or “What are the financial reserves for emergencies?” The evaluation is shown in the radar chart, with the worst result being at zero percent in the graticule.

FReE is available in three versions: The free web-based quick version includes 15 questions. The full version, which includes the complete list of 68 questions, is available on a project basis. The accompanying consulting project is based on the paid version. As part of the consulting project, Hiller and his team work together with the companies to develop appropriate measures to boost resilience and eliminate weak spots. Furthermore, additional questions can be added to the FReE tool to adapt it to the needs of specific industries. Many SMEs are already using the quick version and are planning to update it to the full version.

KMU-Lagebild project
While FReE enables companies to assess their resilience on their own, the KMU-Lagebild project supports them in carrying out a comprehensive resilience assessment. The researchers model all procedures and processes on the computer using the available data. By inputting hypothetical disruption scenarios, you can see how the system reacts to them and which countermeasures have to be taken. “By asking yourself not only what the most likely disruptions are, but also what potential incidents there are, you broaden your view of the risks. What’s more, resilient companies exhibit a high level of adaptability and flexibility,” says Hiller in summary.

More information:
SMEs resilience corona crisis
Source:

Fraunhofer-Institut für Kurzzeitdynamik, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI [Fraunhofer Institute for High-Speed Dynamics, Ernst-Mach-Institut, EMI]

pixabay: stock exchange2 (c) pixabay
27.10.2020

Medium-sized Businesses: High debt, declining Profits and Financing Gap due to Covid-19

  • After the corona shock, European SMEs are showing very high levels of debt, a considerable deterioration in profitability in some cases, and insufficient capitalization
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in France and Italy
  • Compared to its European counterparts, German SMEs have come through the crisis relatively well so far
  • Already before the crisis 20% "zombies" among Italian SMEs, in France 11%, Germany 10%  

In France and Italy in particular, the Covid-19 pandemic is taking a toll on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): they are currently lacking financial resources totaling an estimated EUR 100 billion - despite the extensive economic stimulus packages and after the exclusion of so-called "zombie" companies.

  • After the corona shock, European SMEs are showing very high levels of debt, a considerable deterioration in profitability in some cases, and insufficient capitalization
  • The Covid-19 pandemic is particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in France and Italy
  • Compared to its European counterparts, German SMEs have come through the crisis relatively well so far
  • Already before the crisis 20% "zombies" among Italian SMEs, in France 11%, Germany 10%  

In France and Italy in particular, the Covid-19 pandemic is taking a toll on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs): they are currently lacking financial resources totaling an estimated EUR 100 billion - despite the extensive economic stimulus packages and after the exclusion of so-called "zombie" companies. In Germany too, SMEs lacking around EUR three billion of financial resources for a sufficient recapitalization. In view of the lack of EUR 70 billion in Italy and around EUR 29 billion in France, however, the local SMEs are in a much better position. This is the conclusion of a recent analysis by the world's leading credit insurer Euler Hermes.

"European SMEs have a very high level of debt, significantly deteriorated profitability and insufficient capitalization," Ron van het Hof, CEO of Euler Hermes in Germany, Austria and Switzerland says. "In the medium term, this is a very bad combination for the solvency of these companies. In Italy and France in particular, Covid-19 is making the situation increasingly acute, even if the numerous economic stimulus packages have at least avoided a short-term liquidity crisis. German SMEs have once again proven to be relatively robust and have so far come through the crisis relatively well compared to their European counterparts."

In this country too, debt has increased as a result of numerous liquidity measures. In France in particular, however, it is almost twice as high in relation to gross domestic product (81% of GDP) as in Germany (43% of GDP). In Italy, the debt of 65% of GDP is above average also in a European comparison (average: 63%).

In terms of profitability, French SMEs are at the bottom of the European league
"French small and medium-sized companies are now at the bottom of the European league in terms of profitability, even behind Italy," Ana Boata, Head of Macroeconomics at Euler Hermes says. "The profitability of French SMEs has fallen dramatically by 7 percentage points (pp) since the beginning of the year compared to -0.6 pp in Germany. In Italy, we estimate that profitability has also fallen by up to 3pp[1]. With 33%, the equity ratio in Italy is the lowest and thus well below the 40% that is generally considered as being adequate. Accordingly, Italy is the country where the greatest need for additional funding for recapitalization exists."

In France, the equity ratio of SMEs is 37%, while in Germany, at 39%, only slightly below the recommended capital adequacy level. In their analysis, the economists have already deducted such companies that were already practically unviable before the Covid 19 pandemic.

"A majority of medium-sized companies are proving to be very robust even in the current crisis, especially in Germany, Van het Hof says. "This fact, however, must not hide the fact that there are numerous zombie companies in their shadow in Europe - even before the Covid-19 pandemic. In Italy, for example, even before the crisis, around one-fifth of the SMEs were no longer economically viable, while in France (11%) and Germany (10%) only about half as many were known. However, this number is likely to have increased dramatically with the current crisis, as have the financing requirements of SMEs. The situation will be particularly tight for companies and sectors that had little buffer before the crisis."

In Germany, the equity ratio before the pandemic was particularly low in the transportation industry: in shipping it was around 32%, in aviation 29%. With Covid-19 the existing financing gap has widened again. In France and Italy, companies in the hotel and restaurant industry as well as in mechanical engineering and trade had particularly bad starting positions and therefore have the greatest need for capital now.

The complete study can be found here: https://ots.de/lYcKea 

[1] Figures are currently available for Germany and France until H1 2020, in Italy only for Q1 2020. The decline in profitability of up to 3pp in Italy is an expert estimate.

Euler Hermes is the world leader in credit insurance and a recognized specialist in bonding and guarantees, debt collection and protection against fraud or political risks. Every day, Euler Hermes monitors and analyzes the insolvency of more than 80 million small, medium and multinational companies through its proprietary monitoring system. Overall, the expert analyses cover markets that account for 92% of the global gross domestic product (GDP).


Please read the attached document for notes regarding forward-looking statements.

Source:

Euler Hermes Deutschland