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05.09.2022

McKinsey zum Strommix 2030: Deutschland auf Erdgas angewiesen

  • Erneuerbaren-Ausbau ist Herkulesaufgabe
  • Geschwindigkeit muss zur Erreichung der Ziele massiv zunehmen
  • Indikatoren zum Status der Energiewende in Deutschland verbessern sich leicht: Anteil Erneuerbarer am Bruttostromverbrauch im ersten Halbjahr 2022 bei 49%

Die Rahmenbedingungen für die Energiewende in Deutschland haben sich durch den russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine dramatisch verändert. Die neuen geopolitischen Realitäten und die EU-Entscheidung, zukünftig auf russisches Gas zu verzichten, treffen auch den Stromsektor – denn flexible Gaskraftwerke sollen helfen, die Volatilität erneuerbarer Energien auszugleichen. Vom massiven Ausbau der Erneuerbaren, über eine stärkere Nutzung des Stroms aus Europa bis hin zu weitgehender Selbstversorgung auf Basis von Kohle und Kernkraft – eine Analyse dreier Szenarien für den Strommix im Jahr 2030 zeigt: Deutschland bleibt weiterhin auf Erdgas angewiesen.

  • Erneuerbaren-Ausbau ist Herkulesaufgabe
  • Geschwindigkeit muss zur Erreichung der Ziele massiv zunehmen
  • Indikatoren zum Status der Energiewende in Deutschland verbessern sich leicht: Anteil Erneuerbarer am Bruttostromverbrauch im ersten Halbjahr 2022 bei 49%

Die Rahmenbedingungen für die Energiewende in Deutschland haben sich durch den russischen Angriff auf die Ukraine dramatisch verändert. Die neuen geopolitischen Realitäten und die EU-Entscheidung, zukünftig auf russisches Gas zu verzichten, treffen auch den Stromsektor – denn flexible Gaskraftwerke sollen helfen, die Volatilität erneuerbarer Energien auszugleichen. Vom massiven Ausbau der Erneuerbaren, über eine stärkere Nutzung des Stroms aus Europa bis hin zu weitgehender Selbstversorgung auf Basis von Kohle und Kernkraft – eine Analyse dreier Szenarien für den Strommix im Jahr 2030 zeigt: Deutschland bleibt weiterhin auf Erdgas angewiesen. Diese Zahlen liefert der aktuelle Energiewende-Index (EWI) von McKinsey. Aktuelles Fazit – und eine Verbesserung im Vergleich zum vorherigen EWI aus dem März 2022: 6 der 15 untersuchten Indikatoren  zum Status der Energiewende in Deutschland sind in ihrer Zielerreichung stabil realistisch – 6 stehen auf der Kippe, drei sind unrealistisch. Positiv entwickelte sich vor allem der Indikator Anteil Erneuerbarer am Bruttostromverbrauch, der wegen des guten Wetters im ersten Halbjahr von 41% auf fast 49% zulegte.

Erneuerbaren-Ausbau ist Herkulesaufgabe
„Deutschlands Energiewende steht vor der größten Bewährungsprobe ihrer Geschichte“, sagt Thomas Vahlenkamp, Senior Partner von McKinsey. „Unsere Szenarienanalyse zeigt: Erdgas wird auch zukünftig eine Rolle im Strommix spielen müssen. Wichtig ist es daher, die Importabhängigkeit durch Streuung von Lieferanten zu verringern. Teil der Strategie muss es außerdem sein, vermehrt grünen Wasserstoff für die Verstromung verfügbar zu machen.“

Wo Deutschland im Jahr 2030 bei der Energiewende stehen wird, kommt demzufolge entscheidend auf den Ausbau der Erneuerbaren Energien (EE) und die Situation am Gasmarkt an. Mit ihrer neuen Ambition, den EE-Anteil in Deutschland bis zum Ende dieses Jahrzehnts auf 80 % zu erhöhen, hat sich die Bundesregierung viel vorgenommen. Vahlenkamp: „Dieses Ziel zu erreichen, ist eine Herkulesaufgabe. Dafür muss die komplette Wertschöpfungskette rund um den EE-Ausbau befähigt werden: angefangen bei der Aufstockung der Produktionskapazitäten über schnellere Genehmigungsverfahren bis hin zur Anwerbung bzw. Weiterqualifikation ausreichend vieler Fachkräfte für den Bau und Betrieb der Anlagen.“ Um das 80%-Ziel zu erreichen, müssten jährlich PV-Anlagen mit einer Kapazität von 18 GW errichtet werden; in der Onshore-Windkraft müssten pro Jahr 1.800 Anlagen in Betrieb gehen – umgerechnet fünf pro Tag – und in der Offshore-Windkraft müsste sich die Kapazität nahezu vervierfachen. Auch Erdgas wird weiter eine Rolle spielen. Eine Entspannung der Lage aufgrund der breiteren Streuung von Lieferanten erscheint ebenso denkbar wie eine Fortschreibung der aktuell angespannten Situation. Die Folgen von letzterem wurden im aktuellen EWI modelliert. Vor diesem Hintergrund liegt es nahe, dass Politik und Energiewirtschaft danach streben, dass alle neuen Gaskraftwerke zugleich alternativ auch mit grünem Wasserstoff betrieben werden können.

Jedes der im aktuellen EWI modellierten Szenarien geht davon aus, dass der Strombedarf wie von der Bundesregierung prognostiziert bis 2030 auf 750 TWh ansteigt und der CO2-Preis bei 100 €/t liegt.

Im Basisszenario werden alle Vorgaben der  Bundesregierung zum EE-Ausbau bis 2030 erreicht (215 GW Solar PV, 115 GW Onshore- und 30 GW Offshore-Windkraft). Der Atomausstieg 2022 und der Kohleausstieg bis 2038 finden wie geplant statt; 17 GW Kohlekraftwerke sind 2030 noch in Betrieb. In diesem Szenario steigt 2030 die Produktion aus Erneuerbaren inklusive Biomasse, Wasserkraft und Geothermie auf 751 TWh – das entspricht einem EE-Anteil von 84 % an der deutschen Bruttostromproduktion (Netzverluste und Exporte eingeschlossen). Trotzdem – und ungeachtet der hohen Gaspreise – werden noch immer 68 TWh aus Erdgas erzeugt. Wasserstoff wiederum trägt mit 48 TWh zur Deckung der Stromnachfrage bei, umgerechnet rund 3 Mio. t. Zur Sicherstellung einer lückenlosen Versorgung bleibt Kohlestrom mit 63 TWh weiterhin ein wichtiger Energieträger, wenngleich die Stromproduktion aus Kohle gegenüber 2021 um mehr als 61 % sinken würde. In diesem Szenario würde Deutschland in Phasen hohen EE-Ertrags sogar mehr Strom produzieren als für den Eigenbedarf nötig (rund 91 TWh) und somit zum Netto-Stromexporteur.

Im Szenario „Strom aus Europa“ strebt Deutschland die europäische Integration im Stromsektor an und wird zum Netto- Stromimporteur. Der Grund: Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass Deutschland zwar den EE-Ausbau beschleunigt, aber seine ambitionierten Ziele nicht vollständig erreicht, weil nicht jedes Jahr Zubaurekorde zu erzielen sind. Vielmehr wird angenommen, dass die Ausbauraten einen Mittelwert aus historischem Durchschnitt und historischer Bestleistung bilden. 2030 werden nach diesem Szenario 112 GW Solar PV, 93 GW Onshore- und 23 GW Offshore-Windkraft installiert sein. Die stärkste Abweichung gegenüber dem ersten Szenario weist dabei Solar PV auf, da die Ausbauziele der Bundesregierung für diese Technologie im Vergleich die mit Abstand ambitioniertesten sind. In dem Szenario „Strom aus Europa“ wird simuliert, was passiert, wenn Deutschland hinter die ambitionierten EE-Ausbauziele zurückfällt. Stattdessen werden 33 TWh aus anderen europäischen Ländern importiert, hauptsächlich aus Dänemark, Norwegen und Schweden. Auf eine vermehrt CO2-intensive Stromproduktion wird damit verzichtet. Die Produktion aus Kohle allerdings ist in diesem Szenario trotz der Importe mit 88 TWh deutlich höher als im Basisszenario. Die Erzeugung aus Erdgas liegt mit 69 TWh auf einem vergleichbaren Niveau.

Im Szenario „Weitgehende Selbstversorgung“ versucht Deutschland, seine Energieabhängigkeit von anderen Ländern zu reduzieren und – falls keine Eigenproduktion möglich ist – seine Lieferanten breiter zu streuen. Zur Sicherstellung der Energieversorgung wird zum einen der Kohleausstieg nicht vollständig umgesetzt, so dass 2030 weiterhin Kohlekraftwerke mit einer Leistung von rund 34 GW zur Verfügung stehen. Zum anderen wird die Kapazität von Biomassekraftwerken von rund 9 auf 14 GW erhöht, indem die existierenden Anlagen am Netz gehalten und die jährlich geplanten Ausschreibungsmengen von 600 MW als Neuanlagen hinzugefügt werden. Hierzu müssten ausreichende Flächen für den Anbau von Energiepflanzen bereitgestellt werden, die dann allerdings weder für die Produktion von Nahrungsmitteln oder Biokraftstoff zur Verfügung stünden noch renaturiert werden könnten. Der EE-Ausbau vollzieht sich wie im Szenario „Strom aus Europa“, während sich Stromimport und -export hier in etwa die Waage halten. Hinsichtlich der Nutzung von Atomkraft werden zwei Varianten modelliert: Weiterbetrieb der Atommeiler bis mindestens 2030 und Abschaltung wie geplant. In diesem Szenario „Weitgehende Selbstversorgung“ werden die ambitionierten EE-Ausbauziele 2030 ebenfalls unterschritten und nur rund 520 TWh aus Erneuerbaren erzeugt – rund ein Drittel weniger als im Basisszenario. Stattdessen geht das Szenario von einer weit gehenden Ausnutzung der inländischen Ressourcen aus: Da der Kohleausstieg nicht wie geplant vollzogen worden ist, kann mehr Kohlestrom die Lücke schließen (+91 TWh bzw. +145 % im Vergleich zum Basisszenario). Gleichzeitig rechnet das Szenario mit einer teilweisen Kompensierung durch eine deutlich höhere Produktion von Biomasse (80 TWh gegenüber 49 TWh im Basisszenario). Erdgas- und wasserstoffbasierte Stromerzeugung gehen auf 65 bzw. 38 TWh zurück, denn Kohle ist trotz der CO2-Kosten immer noch günstiger. Die Werte ändern sich leicht, wenn Atomkraftwerke bis 2030 weiterlaufen: In diesem Fall wird die CO2-intensive Kohle- und Gasstromproduktion durch rund 30 TWh Atomstrom zumindest teilweise substituiert, so dass nur noch 143 TWh aus Kohle (-7 %) und 64 TWh (-1 %) aus Gas erzeugt werden. Der EE-Anteil liegt in diesem Szenario (sowohl mit als auch ohne Atomkraft) bei knapp über 67 % und damit unter dem Zielwert von 80 %.

Energiewende-Index September 2022: die 15 Indikatoren im Überblick
Die jüngste Entwicklung der 15 Indikatoren liefert ein gemischtes Bild. Gegenüber dem letzten Energiewende-Index vom März sinkt die Zahl der Indikatoren mit unrealistischer Zielerreichung von fünf auf drei und die mit stabil realistischer Zielerreichung steigt von drei auf sechs. Weitere sechs Indikatoren stehen auf der Kippe.

Der EE-Anteil am Bruttostromverbrauch steigt von 41 % in 2021 auf 49 % in der  ersten Jahreshälfte 2022. Die Verbesserung ist vor allem auf deutlich günstigere Witterungsverhältnisse zurückzuführen. Obwohl der Ausbau der Erneuerbaren weiterhin stockt, bewegt sich die Zielerreichung des Indikators weiter im stabil realistischen Bereich und steigt von 111 % auf 133 %. Allerdings dürfte es mit dem neuen Ziel der Bundesregierung, den EE-Anteil bis 2030 auf 80 % zu erhöhen, zunehmend schwieriger werden, auf dem Zielpfad zu bleiben. Der EE-Anteil am Bruttoendenergieverbrauch stieg um 0,4 Prozentpunkte auf 19,7 %. Hauptgrund ist die wirtschaftliche Erholung in 2021 und der damit einhergehende gestiegene Energiebedarf. Da die Zielmarke jedoch um 1,2 Prozentpunkte angehoben worden ist, sinkt die Zielerreichung des Indikators deutlich von 121 % auf 107 %. Sowohl Haushaltsstrompreis als auch Industriestrompreis haben sich trotz gestiegener Stromkosten deutlich verbessert. Das mag auf den ersten Blick überraschen, liegt aber in der Berechnungsmethodik des Indikators begründet, der die deutsche Strompreisentwicklung im Vergleich zum europäischen Durchschnitt abbildet: Steigen also die Preise im europäischen Ausland stärker als in Deutschland, verbessert sich der Indikator. Beim Haushaltsstrompreis betrug die Differenz zwischen Deutschland und dem europäischen Durchschnitt 2021 noch 22,7 %, im Juni 2022 dagegen nur mehr 16,2 %. Verbessert hat sich der Indikator vor allem deshalb, weil die Preise im europäischen Ausland schneller steigen als in Deutschland. Die Zielerreichung steigt von 111 % auf 137 %. Ob der Trend anhält, ist jedoch fraglich – steigende Großhandelspreise werden wahrscheinlich mit Verzögerung an die Endkunden weitergereicht. Andererseits wiederum dürfte der Wegfall der EEG-Umlage im Juli 2022 auf die hiesigen Haushaltsstrompreise mittelfristig entlastend wirken. Auch der Industriestrompreis ist zuletzt in Deutschland deutlich geringer gestiegen als im Ausland und liegt jetzt nur noch 16 % über dem europäischen Durchschnitt (Vorhalbjahr: 32 %). Der Indikator springt dadurch von 56 % auf jetzt 128 % Zielerreichung und wechselt damit in den realistischen Bereich. Auch hier bedeutet die Verbesserung des Indikators lediglich, dass die Preissteigerungen im Ausland (+33 %) höher ausgefallen sind als in Deutschland (+17 %). Verantwortlich ist dafür vor allem der höhere Anteil an Gebühren und Entgelten am deutschen Industriestrompreis, die durch die steigenden Energiepreise nicht beeinflusst werden. Für den Indikator Ausfall Stromversorgung wurden keine neuen Daten veröffentlicht. Er verharrt deshalb bei einer Zielerreichung von 117 %. Gleiches gilt für die Verfügbare Kapazität für Import aus Nachbarländern. Damit verbleibt auch dieser Indikator mit einer Zielerreichung von 208 % im realistischen Bereich.

Sechs Indikatoren auf der Kippe
Die aktuellen Hochrechnungen für den CO2e-Ausstoß und den Primärenergieverbrauch sehen beide Indikatoren auf der Kippe. Die Emissionen belaufen sich wie schon im Halbjahr zuvor auf 762 Mio. t CO2e; damit verharrt der Zielerreichungsgrad hier bei 84 %. Der Primärenergieverbrauch wiederum liegt nach wie vor bei 12.265 PJ – das entspricht einer Zielerreichung von 70 %. Für den Indikator Sektorkopplung Wärme wurden neue Hochrechnungen veröffentlicht. Der EE-Anteil am Endenergieverbrauch im Bereich Wärme und Kälte liegt danach aktuell bei 16,5 % und damit 0,9 Prozentpunkte über dem Wert des Vorhalbjahres. Damit bewegt sich der Indikator im Zielkorridor, steht aber auf der Kippe. Um dort auch in Zukunft zu bleiben, müsste der EE-Anteil bis Ende dieses Jahres auf 20,2 % steigen. Der Anteil der Gesamtenergiekosten Haushalte am Warenkorb der Verbraucher stieg zuletzt von 10,3 % auf 11,2 %. Damit sinkt die Zielerreichung erneut von 96 % auf jetzt 78 % und der Indikator bewegt sich in der Kategorie „auf der Kippe“ weiter nach unten. Grund hierfür sind die gestiegenen Preise für Benzin und Diesel, aber auch für Erdgas, wo sich die Neukundenpreise für Haushalte innerhalb eines Jahres vervielfacht haben. Für den Indikator Arbeitsplätze in erneuerbaren Energien liegen weiterhin keine neuen Daten vor. Er verharrt deshalb bei seiner bisherigen Zielerreichung von 96 %. Die gesicherte Reservemarge wird seit 2019 nicht mehr von den Übertragungsnetzbetreibern (ÜNB) veröffentlicht. Deshalb wird ab dieser Index-Ausgabe die Reservemarge basierend auf der Methodik und den Kernannahmen der ÜNB sowie öffentlich zugänglichen Daten neu berechnet. Im Ergebnis steht die Reservemarge aktuell mit 0,2 % nur knapp über Null und damit stärker denn je auf der Kippe. Der Rückgang gegenüber dem letzten von den ÜNB veröffentlichten Stand (2,3 %) erklärt sich aus der Stilllegung einiger fossiler Kraftwerke. Werden dann Ende dieses Jahres noch Kernkraftwerke mit einer Gesamtleistung von rund 4 GW heruntergefahren, fällt die Reservemarge aller Voraussicht nach bereits in den negativen Bereich. Bei einem Kohleausstieg bis 2030 wären es sogar mehr als 40 GW, die noch in diesem Jahrzehnt vom Netz gehen würden. Das würde die gesicherte Reservemarge massiv unter Druck setzen und fordert Anpassungen im Strommarktdesign, um die Versorgungssicherheit auch in Zukunft jederzeit zu gewährleisten.

Zielerreichung für drei Indikatoren unrealistisch
Der Indikator Sektorkopplung Verkehr sinkt leicht von 44 % auf 43 %. 2021 waren insgesamt 1,3 Mio. E-Fahrzeuge zugelassen, doch es wären 2,8 Mio. nötig, um im Plan zu bleiben. Ganz unerreichbar ist das 2030er-Ziel dennoch nicht, da die E-Mobilität derzeit überproportional wächst, während der Energiewende-Index in seiner Berechnung von einer linearen Entwicklung ausgeht. Die Kosten für Netzeingriffe sind mit aktuell 8,1 € pro MWh weiterhin weit vom Startwert (1 € pro MWh) entfernt. Gegenüber der ersten Jahreshälfte hat sich dieser Wert aufgrund geringerer Aufwendungen für das Einspeisemanagement allerdings leicht verbessert. Der Zielerreichungsgrad steigt von 39 % auf 50 % . Kaum Fortschritte gibt es beim Indikator Ausbau Transportnetze: Zwar wurden in den vergangenen beiden Quartalen rund 160 km fertiggestellt; die Gesamtlänge beträgt jetzt 2.005 km. Allerdings bleibt der Ausbau weiter deutlich hinter dem Zielwert von 4.977 km insgesamt und knapp 500 km pro Halbjahr zurück. Die Zielerreichung des Indikators beträgt 37 %.

Source:

McKinsey & Company, Deutschland

photo: pexels
26.07.2022

Composites Germany – Results of the 19th Market Survey

  • Current crises are dampening mood in composites industry
  • Pessimistic outlook
  • Subdued investment climate
  • Varying expectations for application industries
  • GRP is still a growth driver
  • Composites Index continues to decline

This is the 19th time that Composites Germany has identified the latest performance indicators for the fibre-reinforced plastics market. The survey covered all the member companies of the three major umbrella organisations of Composites Germany: AVK, Leichtbau Baden-Württemberg and the VDMA Working Group on Hybrid Lightweight Construction Technologies.

As before, to ensure a smooth comparison with the previous surveys, the questions in this half-yearly survey have been left unchanged. Once again, the data obtained in the survey is largely qualitative and relates to current and future developments in the market.

  • Current crises are dampening mood in composites industry
  • Pessimistic outlook
  • Subdued investment climate
  • Varying expectations for application industries
  • GRP is still a growth driver
  • Composites Index continues to decline

This is the 19th time that Composites Germany has identified the latest performance indicators for the fibre-reinforced plastics market. The survey covered all the member companies of the three major umbrella organisations of Composites Germany: AVK, Leichtbau Baden-Württemberg and the VDMA Working Group on Hybrid Lightweight Construction Technologies.

As before, to ensure a smooth comparison with the previous surveys, the questions in this half-yearly survey have been left unchanged. Once again, the data obtained in the survey is largely qualitative and relates to current and future developments in the market.

Current crises are dampening mood in composites industry
Both the economy in general and industry in particular are struggling with numerous challenges at the moment. The Covid-19 pandemic has now had a negative impact for over two years and is still affecting a range of segments of the composites industry. One area that has been hit especially hard by the resulting losses is the mobility sector. Another major strain has been a sharp rise in energy costs recently. Above all, we can expect price increases in fuel and gas to become a central issue over the next few months. In addition, there are still problems along international supply chains, coupled with steep increases in raw material prices, partly due to bottlenecks in the supply. The war in Ukraine has put an additional strain on many business sectors, affecting their supply chains, in particular.

In the current survey, both these and other effects have had a major negative impact on the mood in the composites industry.

The assessment index for the current general economic situation is showing a clear decline.

Compared to the last survey, the assessment of the respondents’ own business situations has dropped significantly and for the first time in eighteen months. However, this decline has been far less severe than during the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Pessimistic outlook
Furthermore, there has been a substantial decline in expectations for the future market development. The key figures for the general economic situation have been declining sharply and have reached an all-time low since the beginning of the survey. The respondents are also less optimistic about future expectations for their own companies.

However, respondents are less extreme when assessing the business situations of their own companies. Despite negative spikes, this curve is far less steep, showing that respondents are expecting less dramatic effects on their own companies than on the industry as a whole.

Subdued investment situation
Although, as expected, the investment climate has also become subdued, it should be noted that, in all, expectations are still relatively high. 70% of all respondents believe that machine investments are possible, or they are planning for it. This figure is somewhat lower than in the previous market survey, but it shows a far less dramatic development than the other factors mentioned above .

Varied expectations for application industries
We already mentioned the high level of heterogeneity of applications in the composite sector. In the survey, respondents were asked to provide assessments of market developments in various core sectors.

Their expectations clearly differ substantially from one another.

The proportion of pessimistic expectations has generally been rising for all application industries. While these expectations are almost entirely within a single-digit range, there has been a clear rise in the proportion of those expecting a deterioration of the market in the various application industries. Similar to the last surveys, major drops are expected above all for the automotive, aviation and mechanical engineering sectors. For the first time, however, we can now also see rather negative expectations on the infrastructure and building sector. Yet this is a segment which often reacts quite slowly to temporary economic fluctuations and has so far shown itself to be relatively resilient towards the above-mentioned crises. It remains to be seen whether such forebodings will come true, or whether the construction industry will continue to hold its own in the face of the current negative forces.

Growth drivers remain stable
Geographically, the survey shows that the most important growth stimuli for the composites segment are expected to come from Germany, Europe and Asia.

Where materials are concerned, we are seeing a continuation of the ongoing paradigm shift. Whereas, in the first 13 surveys, respondents always mentioned CRP as the material with the most important growth drivers in its environment, the most important stimuli are now being expected to come consistently either from GRP or from all materials.

Composites Index continues to decline
The industry is currently going through an extremely tense and difficult period, characterised by rising costs, supply chain issues, lack of availability of certain semifinished products and raw materials, increasing political instability and very pessimistic expectations for the future. All the relevant indicators of the current composites survey are pointing downwards at the moment. After some slight recovery over the last 18 months, the Composite Index has therefore clearly been weakening this time and has been dropping to new low points, especially concerning future expectations.

Industry in general, but particularly also Germany’s composite industry, has always shown itself to be very resilient towards crises and has often cushioned negative developments quickly. The total production volume for composites in Europe last year already reached its pre-crisis level of 2019. Germany continues to be the most important manufacturing country in Europe, with a market share of nearly 20%. Hopefully, the slowdown in the coming months will be less severe than expected and the composites industry will remain on an upward trajectory. We will continue to be optimistic, as composites are highly diverse and therefore a key material of the future.

The next Composites Market Survey will be published in January 2023.

Source:

Composites Germany

Photo: Pixabay
19.07.2022

The future of fashion: Revolution between fast and slow fashion

The fashion industry is massively influenced by the change in social values. Which trends can be observed and in which direction is the fashion future developing - an excerpt from the Retail Report 20231 by Theresa Schleicher.

The fashion industry is massively influenced by the change in social values. Which trends can be observed and in which direction is the fashion future developing - an excerpt from the Retail Report 20231 by Theresa Schleicher.

The fashion industry has been slowed down by the global health pandemic and further affected by the measures taken in the wake of the Ukraine war: Fragile supply chains, increased transportation and energy costs, and rising prices are having an impact on the globalized fashion industry. Those who were moving the fastest are being hit the hardest. Fast fashion based on the principle of "faster and faster, cheaper and cheaper, more and more" - which has been in the fast lane for years - is now experiencing an unprecedented crash. Even without these momentous events, the fashion system would have reached its limits. What could have developed evolutionarily is now being revolutionized. Now and in the future, it will be particularly difficult for brands and retail companies that do not have a sharp profile or that have lost many customers in the attempt to offer mass-produced goods at prices that are still lower than those of their competitors.

New value paradigm in society - also for fashion
While fashion retailers and fashion brands are focusing on expanding online and have been putting their foot on the gas pedal since the corona pandemic at the latest, a parallel change in values is taking place in society. Many behaviors that have been practiced, tested and lived for months will continue to shape our consumer behavior and lifestyles in the future. The uncertainty in society as well as a shrinking economy and rising consumer prices as a result of the Ukraine war will further contribute to this shift in values.

The old paradigm was "primarily shaped by pragmatic factors such as price, quantity, safety and convenience, so consumer behavior was predominantly based on relatively simple cost-benefit calculations." The new value paradigm, on the other hand, is more strongly influenced by "soft factors". For example, the quality of a product is defined more holistically. In addition to price, "ecological, [...] ethical and social aspects are also taken into account. It is about positive or negative experiences that one has had with producers and about the visions that they pursue with their companies". This new value paradigm is forcing the large chain stores in particular to rethink. They have to develop their business models further in the direction of sustainability, transparency and responsibility - and show attitude. The influence of the neo-ecology megatrend combined with the push towards the sense economy is reshuffling the cards in the fashion industry.

The most important driver for the change in consumer behavior is climate protection, which is also becoming personally more important to more and more people because they are feeling the effects of climate change themselves in their everyday lives. The transition to a sustainable, bio-based and circular economy is accompanied by fundamental changes in the technical, economic and social environment.

Circular fashion as an opportunity for fast fashion
The development of the fashion industry - especially the fast fashion industry - towards a more circular economy is not a short-term trend, but one of the most long-term and at the same time forward-looking trends in retailing of all.

Even before the pandemic, a growing proportion of consumers placed value on sustainably produced clothing instead of constantly shopping the latest trends. A reset is needed, but the fashion industry faces a difficult question: How can it respond to the demand for new trends without neglecting its responsibility for the environment?

The solution for reducing emissions and conserving raw materials and resources seems obvious: produce less. On average, 2,700 liters of water are needed to produce a T-shirt - that much drinking water would last a person for two and a half years. In Europe, each person buys an average of 26 kilograms of textiles per year - and disposes eleven kilograms. Of this, almost 90 percent is incinerated or ends up in landfills. Overproduction, precarious working conditions during production and the use of non-sustainable materials are the major problems of the fast fashion industry. It is time to slow down fast fashion.

Fashion recycling by Design & Recycling as a Service
A first step towards keeping fashion and textiles in the cycle for longer is to recycle materials properly. In the future, recycling must be considered as early as the design stage - not only for sustainably produced fashion, but also for fast fashion. The H&M Group, for example, developed the Circulator for this purpose: The digital evaluation tool guides the designer through materials, components and design strategies that are best suited for the product depending on its purpose, and evaluates them in terms of their environmental impact, durability and recyclability.

However, more and more young companies are specializing in offering recycling for textiles as a service. They work directly with fashion retailers or fashion brands to enable the best possible recycling, re-circulation or even upcycling. Until now, it has not been worthwhile for large textile companies to invest in their own recycling systems. But Recycling as a Service is a market of the future, led by innovative start-ups such as Resortecs that are tackling previous hurdles in our recycling system. In the future, more and more new service providers will pop up around returns and recycling and help fashion retailers to align their material cycles more sustainably.

Secondhand conquers the fast fashion market
Another way to extend the life of clothing is to pass it on to new users. We are witnessing the triumph of vintage, retro and more - chic secondhand stores and chains like Resales and Humana are popping up everywhere. The renaming of secondhand to pre-owned or pre-loved also illustrates the increased appreciation of worn clothing. The trend toward secondhand also pays off economically for companies: The number of platforms whose business model revolves around the resale of clothing is increasing, and secondhand fashion is arriving in the middle of society. The luxury segment and especially vintage fashion are stable in price because the availability of these unique pieces is limited. Fast fashion, on the other hand, is available in sufficient quantities and is particularly interesting for price-sensitive customers, as secondhand is considered one of the most sustainable forms of consumption - meaning that fashion can be shopped with a clear conscience - and is usually even offered at a lower price than new goods. The second-hand market will continue to professionalize and become more socially acceptable. As a result, the fast fashion industry will also be forced to produce higher quality clothing in order to become or remain part of the circular system.

Slow fashion gains momentum thanks to technology
The development and orientation of fast fashion towards circular processes is also changing sustainable fashion. In the future, fast fashion and slow fashion can learn from each other to fully exploit their potential: fast fashion will become more sustainable, while slow fashion will focus on faster availability and delivery and make the customer experience as pleasant as possible. Fast and slow fashion are no longer compelling opposites - because the sustainable fashion movement can also benefit from technological innovations that are being established above all by the fashion platforms, and lift slow fashion to a new level.

At the same time, Sustainable Luxury is a new form of luxury consumption - especially in the field of designer fashion, sustainability is becoming the all-important criterion. Sustainability as a means of distinction for true luxury and sustainability as a basic prerequisite for a functioning fashion industry are increasingly converging. This is where the transition between a slowdown of fast fashion and an acceleration of slow fashion takes place.

Trend Sustainable Luxury
Luxury is defined less and less by the object and its possession and is increasingly becoming an expression of one's own lifestyle and values. Consumers' understanding of premium and luxury has changed - not least driven by the neo-ecology megatrend. In the future, it will no longer be just about owning something as expensive and ostentatious as possible. What began as a rebellion against careless consumption of luxury brands that promise high-end products but accept unfair and environmentally damaging manufacturing conditions in the process has increasingly become accepted as a value attitude. Luxury products have no less a claim than to improve the world.

Sustainable and ethical products and services made from innovative materials that have the power to solve problems and make the world a better place. At the same time, this highly ethically and morally charged form of sustainability is turning into a means of distinction: For the materials are so new, the manufacturing processes still so experimental, that the products are unique and often only available in very small quantities or on order. And this exclusive sustainability naturally comes at a price. After all, a company that pursues a mission is not concerned with simply cutting costs - certainly not at the expense of others or the environment. Instead of leather and fur, luxury fashion is now made from oranges, pineapples, hemp, cacti: there are more and more new, innovative and sustainable materials from which unique garments and accessories can be made.

Predictive, Pre-Order & Made-to-Order
Artificial intelligence and Big Data analysis can help predict fashion demand. Fast fashion leaders like Shein are characterized by agile production which is supported by AI algorithms for trend prediction fed with data from TikTok and other social media services. This could sustainably reduce overproduction and unsaleable goods in the future. As critical as Shein's practices are, the automation of processes also offers immense opportunities for a more sustainable fashion industry, as production only starts when goods are in demand.

AI support in the design process can be used to produce more sustainable fashion - and make it available more quickly. In a future of an avatar economy and in the world of virtual influencers, it may even be possible to dispense with part of the production process: Fashion will remain virtual - and thus more resource-efficient. Digital fashion will become increasingly important as the metaverse is built.

5 Key Takeaways on the Future of Fashion

  1. The current crisis in the fashion industry is an opportunity to move more in the direction of circular fashion. Above all, the new value paradigm in society, understanding quality more holistically and consuming more mindfully, is providing a push towards fairer, more ecological and more social fashion. Fast fashion and sustainability are not mutually exclusive.
  2. There are already first approaches to keep fast fashion in the cycle longer or to return it to the cycle. One important development is to consider recycling or reuse as early as the design and manufacturing process - known as recycling by design. In addition, there is a growing number of start-ups specializing in the optimized recycling of textiles and cooperating with major fashion players.
  3. Above all, the booming online trade in used fashion, often communicated as the pre-loved or pre-owned category, is making secondhand respectable for the mainstream. Such fashion, with a story and an aura of uniqueness, is also a cost-effective but more sustainable alternative to fast fashion.
  4. But slow fashion is also changing, especially due to the dominance of new technologies. Slow fashion can also benefit from processes that are currently manifesting themselves in the online fashion market, such as fast delivery or pre-order services. Slow fashion thus becomes more convenient, better and faster available. It will be easier for sustainably oriented fashion enthusiasts to consume according to their values and attitudes.
  5. The trend toward sustainable luxury continues: Sustainability as a means of distinction for a new form of luxury enables alternative manufacturing processes and innovative materials in the luxury fashion market. These are being showcased by an avant-garde and, if they prove successful, adapted by fast fashion.

1https://onlineshop.zukunftsinstitut.de/shop/retail-report-2023/

Source:

Retail Report 2023 | Theresa Schleicher, Janine Seitz | June 2022

Foto: Lalit Kumar, Unsplash
29.03.2022

The man-made fibers industry at the turning point of time

"You don't tear down a house before the new one is ready for occupancy."

Textination talked to the Managing Director of the Industrievereinigung Chemiefaser e.V., Dr. Wilhelm Rauch, about his assessment of the turning point that the man-made fibers industry is currently facing. What are the risks and threats, and what needs to change in order to remain a competitive player on the global market.

"You don't tear down a house before the new one is ready for occupancy."

Textination talked to the Managing Director of the Industrievereinigung Chemiefaser e.V., Dr. Wilhelm Rauch, about his assessment of the turning point that the man-made fibers industry is currently facing. What are the risks and threats, and what needs to change in order to remain a competitive player on the global market.

US President Joe Biden has called his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin a war criminal in connection with the invasion of Ukraine. The United Nations' highest court, the International Court of Justice in The Hague, has ordered Russia to immediately end its war against Ukraine. How do you personally assess Russia's behavior?
Dr. Rauch:
With family roots in the Rhineland, Central and East Germany, I grew up at a time when, as a result of the division of Europe, families were separated and people were ruthlessly shot in the middle of Germany who wanted to cross the inner-German demarcation line towards the West. Since 1989, the fall of the Iron Curtain has led us into a period that lasted more than 30 years and allowed us, at least in Europe, to experience an era of peaceful coexistence between the great power blocs, intensive trade relations and prosperous states.

It is more than shocking to see today how Russia is trying to turn back the wheel of history in Europe with a brutality that the youngest generation growing up in Europe has fortunately not had to experience so far, and it brings back the worst memories of the Cold War, which everyone hoped would never return. If today in Ukraine even facilities for the peaceful use of nuclear energy are fired upon, a dimension has been reached that one does not want to extrapolate any further. In addition to the unspeakable human suffering caused, which we can only begin to alleviate by accepting Ukrainian refugees, in the long term all trust in political promises is being gambled away, which, however, is essential both for peaceful coexistence and for economic cooperation. We are facing a reordering of the world in which supply relationships and dependencies with or on autocratic states must be evaluated much more sensitively for each individual case.

The economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict are becoming increasingly clear. The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) is correcting its forecast for 2022, but does not yet see a recession. What are your expectations for the industry in the current fiscal year?
Dr. Rauch:
The man-made fibers industry has been severely affected by the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the last two years. Planned investments were first postponed and then finally abandoned. By the end of 2022, three man-made fibers producers will close their doors in Germany compared to 2019. The industry started the current year on a very hopeful note, although previous issues such as REACH and, above all, energy costs were already increasing in severity before the Russia-Ukraine war. The economic consequences of the war will have a negative impact both directly in the form of increased energy prices and indirectly through changes in international competitive conditions.

What do the war in Ukraine and the economic sanctions against Russia entail for the upstream supply chains of the manmade fiber industry?
Dr. Rauch:
The immediate upstream supply chains will not be affected much by this war at first. However, we must expect supply chains in other industries to be disrupted. If, for example, certain raw materials or products are no longer available, this can have a noticeable impact, starting with logistics (mobility) and extending to components in production technology facilities. An example of this is the availability of cable harnesses, which were previously produced in Ukraine and are indispensable in many electronic components for man-made fibers production.

What is the relevance of Ukraine and Russia as sales markets for IVC member companies?
Dr. Rauch:
If we take the last year before the outbreak of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic as the reference year, exports to Ukraine and the Russian Federation account for around 1.6% of total exports of man-made fibers from Germany. On average, a loss of sales to these countries can be tolerated, although it should not be forgotten that in individual cases - depending on a company's product portfolio - the impact can be quite significant. Looking beyond the horizon, it is not only the direct exports of man-made fibers to the war region that are of significance, but also deliveries of products in which man-made fibers are processed. Here, there are now interrupted supply relationships that result in order losses for the man-made fibers industry.

Certain industries are particularly affected by the consequences - what does this mean for the man-made fibers sector as a supplier industry?
Dr. Rauch:
Wherever production is cut back along the downstream value chain in which man-made fibers were used, the effects will be noticeable with a temporal delay. This applies, for example, to deliveries to the automotive sector, where the production of new vehicles comes to a standstill due to a lack of components originating from Ukraine.

How are exploding energy prices and the gas embargo affecting man-made fibers producers in the DACH region?
Dr. Rauch:
Even before the Russia-Ukraine war, European energy costs were already at a level that hit our members hard. For example, European gas costs currently rose by ten times from approx. 12 EUR/MWh to approx. 120 EUR/MWh as a result of the war, while in the USA they "only" rose by two and a half times from approx. 8 EUR/MWh to approx. 18 EUR/MWh. The situation is similar for electricity prices in Germany in particular, which have also risen by a factor of 10 from an already high level. Further price increases in Europe cannot be ruled out, but are more likely. Against this background, moderate adjustments in man-made fibers prices are only a drop in the bucket. A market development with virtually exploding energy costs cannot be reliably depicted by any company, nor can it be priced in such a way as to cover costs.

As the industry association of the man-made fibers industry, what do you think of "Freeze for Peace" or a stop to all Russian gas and raw material imports?
Dr. Rauch:
In Germany in particular, we have deliberately made ourselves dependent on Russian gas, contrary to all international warnings, by defining it as necessary for the bridge technology of electricity generation that we will need after the shutdown of coal- and nuclear-based power plants, before the availability of a sufficient amount of so-called "green" energy is assured. Gas is also needed for heating purposes and as a raw material, so it takes on the function of an all-rounder.

A boycott-related import stop would not only have serious negative consequences for the man-made fibers sector, but for the entire German industry and the majority of private households. As I mentioned at the beginning, it is the order of the day to help alleviate human suffering by taking in Ukrainian refugees. But this is not the end of the crisis. It must be assumed that the war situation will not be resolved in the near future. However, in order to cope with a protracted crisis situation, our economic strength must be maintained in order to be able to cope with the challenges ahead. An import freeze would be counterproductive in this respect. Since, due to the latest developments, gas deliveries are now to be paid for in rubles, there is rather a risk that Russia, for its part, will stop gas deliveries. In their effect, the two scenarios do not differ. The only thing that is certain is the fact that the availability of Russian gas to Europe is no longer guaranteed. Ultimately, the Russian demand to switch payments to rubles, which is not only aimed at revaluing the ruble, makes it clear that Russia is not dependent on Europe as a buyer of its gas. This would mean that a "freeze for peace" would lead to nothing. In the Far East, there is already a potential buyer of Russian gas to obtain it cheaply and safely, and which is also a major competitor of the European chemical fiber industry: China.

Are agreements with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar a good substitute solution for gas and oil supplies from Russia?
Dr. Rauch:
It is not a question of evaluating a measure in the sense of good or bad, but of whether it appears suitable in this particular situation to reduce unilateral dependencies on an aggressor before sustainable solutions are available in sufficient quantity. In this respect, there should initially be no ideological barriers in the measures to be examined for feasibility. The agreements concluded with the United Arab Emirates and Qatar after certainly careful political scrutiny are individual decisions and represent only one piece in the mosaic among many.

Does the saying "First we had bad luck, then we were not lucky at all" apply to the current economic performance of the industry - or: how do you assess the influence of the Corona pandemic and the war situation in this respect?
Dr. Rauch:
Both the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war are events with a global character. While the first event affected all countries equally sooner or later, the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war must be assessed in a more differentiated manner. The consequences of the war primarily affect companies in Europe, and there in particular those countries which - as mentioned above - have placed themselves in unilateral dependencies like Germany. This does not apply to the man-made fibers industry in particular. Although there are many fellow sufferers in other industries, this does not improve the situation, of course.

What does the industry expect from the political leaders in Berlin and Brussels in the future?
Dr. Rauch:
The wish list can be fixed to a few core elements:
In the long term, we need a supply of energy and raw materials that is not based on the dependence of a few autocratic states. On the way there, against the backdrop of the Russia-Ukraine war, previous exit scenarios from coal and nuclear energy must be reconsidered without prejudice with regard to their timeline. Or to put it more concisely: You don't tear down a house before the new one is ready for occupancy.

But energies from renewable raw materials must also be offered at prices that allow global competitiveness. According to a study by DECHEMA and FutureCamp, the chemical industry has calculated a price of 4 ct/kWh (including all taxes and fees). We are miles away from this today.

The revision of REACH must not lead to further bureaucracy and requirements that tie up capacity in companies. What we need in Europe is not dotting the i on Maslow's hierarchy of needs, but to ensure that we do not slide down the levels step by step and that the i dot floats in the air without an "i".

European economic policy must focus on the international competitiveness of European industry. It is not sufficient to consider and regulate the European Union only from the point of view of the internal market. The planned carbon border mechanism is such an example. It is intended to impose customs duties on imports that carry a high CO2 burden. This may protect the domestic market, but it does nothing at all to help export-oriented European industry such as the man-made fibers sector on the international world market, because European production costs remain too high by global standards despite the carbon border taxes.

The European Commission must increasingly recognize the European industry and with it the man-made fibers industry as problem solvers. Man-made fibers are indispensable as products for the energy turnaround (rotor blades for wind turbines), lightweight construction in mobility (lightweight car bodies in composite systems), sustainable road construction (geotextiles to reinforce the road surface and increase its service life), reduction of steel-reinforced concrete and thus cement, sand and gravel (reinforcement with high-tensile man-made fibers) and medical products (medical masks, bandaging materials, stents).

In Europe, we again need more market economy and no small-scale regulations that are adapted again and again and proliferate into an impenetrable thicket.

With all the wishes to politicians mentioned above, let me finally mention the following with regard to the current situation: In 1961, after the Berlin Wall was built, Russian and American tanks faced each other at Checkpoint Charlie at a distance of less than 50 meters, ready to fire.

A year later, in October 1962, nuclear-equipped American and Russian naval units met head-on in the Cuban Missile Crisis. Both John F. Kennedy and Nikita S. Khrushchev - bitter rivals in the contest of political systems - were sensible enough at the time not to let the situation escalate.

At present, I wish our national, European and transatlantic politicians’ unconditional determination in the defense of our free democratic values, but I also appeal to all politicians worldwide to take to heart one of Albert Einstein's fundamental perceptions: "I don't know what weapons will be used in the Third World War. But I can tell you what they'll use in the Fourth - rocks!"

Source:

Textination

The Interview was conducted by Ines Chucholowius, CEO Textination GmbH

Photo: pixabay
25.05.2021

Water Saving Solution for Textile Industry EC Project Waste2Fresh

The Fraunhofer Institute for Biomedical Engineering IBMT, with its long-term expertise in nanotoxicity and nanosafety testing, contributes to a new EC project for water saving solutions for textile industry. This industry uses a vast amount of water for different steps in the textile dyeing process. It also produces a lot of wastewater, which contains a range of chemicals and dyes.

The Fraunhofer Institute for Biomedical Engineering IBMT, with its long-term expertise in nanotoxicity and nanosafety testing, contributes to a new EC project for water saving solutions for textile industry. This industry uses a vast amount of water for different steps in the textile dyeing process. It also produces a lot of wastewater, which contains a range of chemicals and dyes.

Breakthrough innovations are needed in energy intensive industries to recycle water and create closed loops in industrial processes. 20% of global industrial water pollution comes from textile manufacturing. To reduce the high amount of freshwater used in textile industry, the EC-funded Waste2Fresh project will develop a closed-loop process for textile manufacturing factories in which wastewater is collected, recycled and used again. Novel and innovative catalytic degradation approaches with highly selective separation and extraction techniques will be developed, based on nanotechnology. According to the European Commission, such “closed loops“ would significantly reduce the use of fresh water and improve water availability in the relevant EU water catchment areas, as outlined in the Water Framework Directive.

Closed loop recycling system for wastewater from textile manufacturers
Waste2Fresh meets the above challenges and industry needs by developing and demonstrating (to TRL 7) a closed loop recycling system for wastewater from textile manufacturing factories; to counteract freshwater resource scarcities and water pollution challenges exacerbated by energy intensive industries which are major users of fresh water (for e.g., processing, washing, heating, cooling).

The Waste2Fresh technology is developed to reduce current use of freshwater resources and considerably increases the recovery of water, energy and other resources (organics, salts and heavy metals). The result is a 30% increase in resource and water efficiency compared to the state-of-the-art. The system will ultimately lead to considerable environmental improvements and accordingly reduce the EC and global environmental footprint.

Fraunhofer IBMT expertise in human-toxicity and -safety testing
The Fraunhofer Institute for Biomedical Engineering IBMT will be primarily responsible for performing nanotoxicity and nanosafety testing during the whole technology process (from development to demonstration), ensuring that the developed system and processes meet relevant safety regulations. The Fraunhofer IBMT collaborates with all consortium partners developing and using to develop approaches for ensuring that the developed nanomaterial-based components meet relevant health and safety standards during their use.

For the hazard assessment of the developed nanomaterials, the Fraunhofer IBMT will perform a set of in vitro toxicity studies using commercially available human cell lines. The results of this toxicity studies will be the basis for the development of relevant safety procedures for handling and using the developed recycling technology.

 

Project funding: H2020-EU.2.1.5.3. - Sustainable, resource-efficient and low-carbon technologies in energy-intensive process industries

Duration: 12/2020- 11/2023

Coordinator:
KONYA TEKNIK UNIVERSITESI, Turkey

Project partners:
CENTRE FOR PROCESS INNOVATION LIMITED LBG, United Kingdom
ERAK GIYIM SANAYI VE TICARET ANONIM SIRKETI, Turkey
FRAUNHOFER GESELLSCHAFT ZUR FOERDERUNG DER ANGEWANDTEN FORSCHUNG E.V., Fraunhofer-Institut für Biomedizinische Technik IBMT, Germany
INNOVATION IN RESEARCH & ENGINEERING SOLUTIONS, Belgium
INSTYTUT MOLEKULYARNOI BIOLOGII I GENETYKY NAN UKRAINY, Ukraine
L'UREDERRA, FUNDACION PARA EL DESARROLLO TECNOLOGICO Y SOCIAL, Spain
NANOFIQUE LIMITED, United Kingdom
NANOGENTECH LTD, United Kingdom
PCI MEMBRANES SPOLKA Z OGRANICZONA ODPOWIEDZIALNOSCIA, Poland
STIFTELSE CSDI WATERTECH, Norway
THE OPEN UNIVERSITY, United Kingdom
ULUDAG CEVRE TEKNOLOJILERI ARGE MERKEZI SANAYI VE TICARET LIMITED SIRKETI, Turkey
UNIVERSIDAD INDUSTRIAL DE SANTANDER, Colombia
UNIVERSITA DEGLI STUDI DI TRENTO, Italy
VEREALA GMBH, Switzerland
VSI SOCIALINES INOVACIJOS SVARESNEI APLINKAI, Lithiani

Foto: Vlad-Vasnetsov, PIXABAY
01.10.2019

FAIR TRADE MARKET CANADA

Economy
With an average GDP growth of 2% in 2018 and 2019, Canada now resembles the word’s 10th biggest economy and is worthy of a closer look wether it could serve as a sales market for investments.

Canada’s average GDP growth of 2 % in 2018 and 2019 initiates an examination if the country could serve as a market or if an investment in the country could be of value. In particular, the service sector, the manufacturing sector, energy and raw materials and agriculture form the Canadian economy. Canada’s business centers are Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto, as well as the provinces Ontario and Quebec. The sometimes enormous distances between those regions should not be underestimated.

Economy
With an average GDP growth of 2% in 2018 and 2019, Canada now resembles the word’s 10th biggest economy and is worthy of a closer look wether it could serve as a sales market for investments.

Canada’s average GDP growth of 2 % in 2018 and 2019 initiates an examination if the country could serve as a market or if an investment in the country could be of value. In particular, the service sector, the manufacturing sector, energy and raw materials and agriculture form the Canadian economy. Canada’s business centers are Vancouver, Montreal, Toronto, as well as the provinces Ontario and Quebec. The sometimes enormous distances between those regions should not be underestimated.

An inner-Canadian trade agreement that came into effect in 2017 aims on the reduction of trade barriers among Canada’s provinces. In addition to that, an investment plan for infrastructure by the government should enable public investments in the amount of roundabout €120 Bil. by 2028. With its national climate strategy and the ratification of the Paris climate agreement, Canada also pursues an ambitious climate policy. Today, more than 50% of the needed electricity is already created by using renewable energies, even though the country has got the third-biggest energy and raw materials reserves in the world.

Due to its dependency on export, Canada is involved in many trade agreements (about a dozen bilateral free trade agreements). The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) with Canada and Mexico, which has been in existence since 1994, is expected to be renewed and replaced on January 1st 2020 by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) With the EU, Canada's second most important trading partner, the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) has been provisionally in force since 21st September 2017. Furthermore, Canada signed the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) at the beginning of 2018. Besides that, there are amongst other trade agreements with the EFTA-States, as well as South Korea and the Ukraine.

Automotive parts, oil and raw materials (excluding fuels) account for more than one third of Canada's total exports. The US are the biggest customer of Canadian goods with a share of 75.9% of exports. The majority of goods being imported in Canada are motor vehicles and automotive parts; machines and chemical products. The main exporters to Canada in 2017 were the US (51.3%) and China (12.6%), followed by Mexico (6.3%) and Germany (3.2%). Germany mainly exports cars and parts and machinery to Canada and imports raw materials.

Economy Data 2017/2018 (Estimations/Forecasts)
GDP 1,820 Bil. USD (2019)
Population 37.1 Mio. (2018)
Exports to Germany 4.4 Bil. Euro
Imports from Germany 9.7 Bil. Euro

Source: GTAI, AHK, AA

Fair market
The close economic relations with the US are also reflected in the exhibition industry. For Canadian exhibitors and visitors, it does not make much of a difference in terms of time and logistics whether a trade show takes place in the neighbouring United States or in Canada. Therefore, many of them take advantage of the opportunity to participate in international fairs in the US. However, some Canadian trade fairs are among the industry's leading trade shows in North America or even worldwide. These include, for instance, the GPS Global Petroleum Show (oil and gas industry) and the Buildings Show (construction industry), but also the PDAC (commodities) and Canada's Farm Progress Show (agriculture) fairs. For exhibitors and visitors from the US and from all over the world, participation at these fairs is indispensable. In addition to the international fairs, there are various regional fairs, which are mainly used by local companies of specific industries.
 
Just as in the US, in Canada it is common for trade fairs to be either organized by trade associations or in cooperation with a trade fair organizer. It also makes sense in Canada to first test the interest in one's own products at a trade show and, in a second step, to decide on a branch or a sales partner. Canadian trade fair visitors are accessible and relaxed, which facilitates the first conversation. The stand construction is usually less expensive than in Germany and the exhibition halls are more compact.

Since the mid-1970s, the Canadian Association of Exposure Management (CAEM) has represented the interests of the Canadian exhibition industry. The members are organizations or persons organizing trade fairs, consumer exhibitions or similar events. Fair-related service providers can become associated members. Among other, the association provides its members with ‘Best Practice Guidelines’ for health and safety. As a partner of the International Association of Exhibitions and Events (IAEE), CAEM also offers specific courses for the Canadian trade fair industry as part of the Certified in Exhibition Management (CEM).
 
Fairs und Organizers 
The Association of the German Trade Fair Industry (AUMA) approximately lists around 40 fairs in Canada every year. The majority of these events takes place in Toronto, followed by Montreal, Vancouver and Calgary.

Similar to the US, most of the fairs are being organized by the industry associations. Fairs and accompaniment-events are one of the key services for their members, but also the main source of income of the associations. With the main emphasis on metalworking and processing, the Society of Manufacturing Engineers organizes among other the FabTech Fair Canada. The vast majority of organizers only hosts one fair per year. The Canadian Institute of Mining, Metallurgy & Petroleum (CIM), for instance, organizes the CIM Annual Convention (Mining) annually at changing places. The Society of Petroleum Engineers organizes the ATCE – Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition fair (Petrochemistry) - and the Woodworking Network carries out the WMS - Woodworking Machinery & Supply Expo (Woodworking).
 
Also, there are for-profit fair organizers, that host different fairs in Canada. The British company Informa PLC for instance has been active on the Canadian market since the takeover of the fair Fan Expo Canada in 2010. Over the years, the enterprise continuously extended its portfolio among other with the takeover of the company MMPI Canada. Dmg events also organizes various trade fairs in Canada, for example the trade show GPS - Global Petroleum Show & Conference. In the field of food and beverage the French company COMEXPOSIUM organizes the trade fair SIAL Canada. The activities of Messe Frankfurt GmbH and Deutsche Messe AG in the Canadian market are explained in more detail in the section "German Organizers".

Year Fairs in Canada*
2020 41
2019 46
2018 44
2017 43
2016 39
2015 41

* listed in AUMA fair database

German Organizers
The Messe Frankfurt GmbH has been active in Canada since 2005. Part of the Portfolio are two fairs, that take place simultaneously, the Waste & Recycling Expo Canada and the Municipal Equipment Expo.

Since 2014 the Deutsche Messe AG is represented in Canada by its subsidiary Hannover Fairs with the CanWEA fair (wind energy). The fair has been organized annually in collaboration with the Candian Wind Energy Association. Another cooperation with the solar industry association (Canadian Solar Industries Association) concerned the organization of the solar Canada fair, which was being held until 2019. The two fairs are being merged from 2020 on as Electricity Transformation Canada. In addition to that the Truck World fair is being organized in cooperation with Newcom Business Media every two years.

Contact
AHK Kanada
Deutsch-Kanadische Industrie- und Handelskammer  Canadian German Chamber of Industry and Commerce Inc.  
480 University Avenue
Suite 1500
Toronto, Ontario M5G 1V2
Phone +1 416 598 33 55
Fax: +1 416 598 18 40
E-Mail: Info.toronto@germanchamber.ca  
Website: http://kanada.ahk.de
 
CAEM Canadian Association of Exposition Management
E-Mail: info@caem.ca
Website: https://caem.ca/
 
Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI)
E-Mail: info@gtai.de  
Webseite: www.gtai.de
 
Auswärtiges Amt
Botschaft der Bundesrepublik Deutschland Postadresse:
P.O. Box 379, Postal Station „A“ Ottawa, Ontario  K1N 8V4
Phone: +1 613-232-1101
Fax: +1 613-780-1527
Website: https://canada.diplo.de/ca-de

AUMA
Christine Zander  
Referent global markets
Regions: North America, Latin-America, Subsahara-Africa, South East Asia, Australia; Voting of foreign trade fair participations, EU-topics
Phone: +49 30 24000-125
Fax: +49 30 24000-320
E-Mail: c.zander@auma.de

 

 

The Poles like new Clothes for themselves © Hardy5 / pixelio.de
22.11.2016

THE POLES LIKE NEW CLOTHES FOR THEMSELVES

  • German fashion demanded
  • Shoe chain CCC is expanding

Warsaw (GTAI) - The demand for textiles, clothing and footwear is developing particularly dynamic in Poland in 2016. These items are also popular Christmas gifts. Despite strong competition, Germany remains the third-largest foreign supplier of clothing and continues to grow. The German online retailer Zalando is building its first huge logistics center in Poland. The Discounter KiK is opening further branches. The domestic shoe chain CCC is expanding.

  • German fashion demanded
  • Shoe chain CCC is expanding

Warsaw (GTAI) - The demand for textiles, clothing and footwear is developing particularly dynamic in Poland in 2016. These items are also popular Christmas gifts. Despite strong competition, Germany remains the third-largest foreign supplier of clothing and continues to grow. The German online retailer Zalando is building its first huge logistics center in Poland. The Discounter KiK is opening further branches. The domestic shoe chain CCC is expanding.

Retail sales of textiles, clothing and footwear are the fastest growing of all product groups in Poland. According to the Statistical Office (GUS) (http://stat.gov.pl), the real growth rate reached 15.8% in the first three quarters of 2016 compared to January to September 2015. The total retail sales rose by 5.3% in the same time. The forthcoming Christmas business is expected to further stimulate the demand for fashion items. The in the current year introduced children's allowance also will heat the purchase power of the Poles.

Sales value of clothing and footwear in Poland (in Zl billion)
2012 2013 2014 2015 1) 2016 2) 2017 2)
28.7 28.9 31.8 33.4 35.3 37.1

1) Estimation, 2) Forecast
Source: Market research company PMR

First and foremost, growing is the demand for common items in the lower, middle and upper segment. Clothing manufacturers however in the luxury category do not benefit from the rising demand. According to the consulting firm KPMG, the poles spent in 2015 about 14.3 billion Zloty (Zl, about EUR 3.4 billion, 1 EUR = 4.1841, average price 2015) for luxury goods, including Zl 2,065 billion for clothing and accessories. These, however, form an important product group and rank second behind passenger cars (ZI 6.974 billion).

The largest domestic clothing company LPP  also felt the fact that the demand potential in the precious segment is limited. The company is known for its brands for everyone, especially "Reserved", which generates almost half (47%) of its revenues. At the beginning of 2016 LPP launched its new premium brand "Tallinder". After the sales however remained below the expectations, LPP announced the gradual abandonment of this project in September 2016.    

Tallinder was supposed to compete with the established gents brands and suppliers of other high-quality clothing names like Vistula, Bytom and Prochnik. The market leader in men's clothing Vistula, which also includes the jewelry chain "W.Kruk" and the brand of women's wear Deni Cler, expects in 2016 (2015) an increase of ZI 590 (518)  million and of its net profit to ZI 37.0 (28.3) million. Bytom follows far behind with projected revenues of ZI 154 (131) million and a net profit of EUR 14.1 (12.4) million.
 
CCC is aiming abroad

Due to the growing demand, the number of specialist stores for clothing is growing, according to GUS us to around 37,100 until the end of 2015 (2014: 35,900) . At the same time the number of stores for shoes and leather goods, which amounted to 8,200 (8,300) in 2015, fell slightly. One reason for this is the proliferation of relevant trade chains, such as the shoe chain CCC, which contributes to a consolidation, and the increasing online trade.

In 2016 alone CCC opens around 40 new stores in Poland and increases its sales area by 20 to 30% annually. In 2016 this will increase by 105,000 sqm and 2017 by 120,000 sqm (net). The trade chain is looking for additional franchisees in other European countries, now also in Asia and the USA. In the Russian Federation CCC wants to open large salons with about 1,000 square meters. According to the chain founder Dariusz Milek in an announcement of the daily paper Rzeczpospolita the presence in Ukraine, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Central European neighbors should be increased too.

The branch networks in Germany and Austria should not be increased further in the near future; In Austria there are already almost all of the targeted total 70 CCC stores.  Due to the lack of profit in these two countries, their share of the group’s total income, which is expected to reach some ZI 3.2 billion in 2016, should not exceed 10%. CCC also relies on e-commerce. After the trade chain had already acquired the online shop for shoes eobuwie.pl, it wants to start in spring 2017 with its own e-shop.

Polish imports of clothing exceed exports. The two main suppliers of textiles, China and Bangladesh, were able to further increase their deliveries to Poland in 2015. Germany also achieved growth and finished third. Slovakia has multiplied its exports. Among the customer countries Germany was by far the most important player with a further significant increase in its demand. The other ranks were followed by the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Austria, Sweden and other mostly European countries.

Polish foreign trade with clothing made out of woven fabrics (Zl million)
Customs tariff 6201 to 6209 2013 2014 2015
Import, thereof from: 5,392.4 6,910.0 8,589.6
.PR China 2,115.3 2,532.3 2,915.8
.Bangladesh 758.4 1,019.2 1,243.5
.Germany 522.1 607.7 745.4
.Turkey 290.6 404.3 570.9
.Slovakia 25.0 82.6 396.9
.India 258.8 329.9 366.7
Export, thereof to: 5,895.4 6,830.1 7.894.9
.Germany 2,997.3 3,677.7 4.388.0

Source: Central Statistical Office CIS

Germany is not only characterized by high-quality clothing and well-known brands in Poland. The in Europe leading chain KIK is spreading further in the neighboring country. By the end of 2017 the number of stores should increase to 200. Its first store in Poland KIK opened in March 2012.

E-commerce is likely to give further impetus to the German supply of clothing. The large online retailer Zalando is setting up its first logistics center in Poland in Gryfino in the area of the special economic zone Kostrzyn-Slubice (Küstrin-Frankfurt / O.) for an amount of EUR 150 million. According to the property developer Goodman, it will be the largest logistics area occupied by a single company in Poland. At the same time, it is one of the most extensive BTS (built-to-suit) projects in the country, in which an object is fully built according to the requirements of the future user. Its opening is scheduled for the second half of 2017. Zalando wants to supply from there Poland, the Nordic countries and a part of Germany.

Polish foreign trade with knitted clothing (in Mio. Zl)
Customs tariff  6101 to 6114 2013 2014 2015
Import, thereof from: 5,191.6 6,748.2 8,404.7
.PR China 1,574.1 1,970.7 2,378.5
.Bangladesh 903.2 1,258.8 1,583.4
.Germany 538.1 723.8 927.5
.Turkey 512.9 628.7 796.5
.Cambodia 235.4 464.3 586.7
Export, thereof to: 4,521.4 5,108.9 6,299.0
Germany 1,888.0 2,343.8 2,996.3

Source: Central Statistical Office CIS

 

Sales of Apparel are rising in Poland - despite Price Pressure © Hardy5 / pixelio.de
03.05.2016

SALES OF APPAREL ARE RISING IN POLAND - DESPITE PRICE PRESSURE

  • Import from Germany growing / Domestic Chains expanding

Warsaw (GTAI) - The outlook for sales of clothing and footwear in Poland is favorable. Domestic chains such as LPP, Bytom, Vistula and Monnari are opening additional stores. In 2016 the shoe chain CCC is investing around EUR 33 mio in new sales areas, including in Germany. The western neighboring country is by far the biggest buyer of clothing from Poland. Increasingly popular too is fashion from Germany, which occupies the third place among supplying countries.

  • Import from Germany growing / Domestic Chains expanding

Warsaw (GTAI) - The outlook for sales of clothing and footwear in Poland is favorable. Domestic chains such as LPP, Bytom, Vistula and Monnari are opening additional stores. In 2016 the shoe chain CCC is investing around EUR 33 mio in new sales areas, including in Germany. The western neighboring country is by far the biggest buyer of clothing from Poland. Increasingly popular too is fashion from Germany, which occupies the third place among supplying countries.

In Poland the demand for clothing and footwear is steadily growing. The market research firm PMR (http://www.pmrpublications.com) expects in 2016 sales worth of Zloty 35.3 billion (approximately EUR 8.2 billion, 1 Euro = 4.3283 Zl, as of April 22nd  2016). The price war however is very tough due to the higher US dollar exchange rate, the dealers can hardly pass their higher costs on to the customers. This concerns mainly imported commodity goods from the Far East, while the outlook for the upscale segment outfitters is better.

Value of sales of clothing and footwear (in PLN billion)
2012 2013 2014 20151) 20162) 20172)
28.7 28.9 31.8 33.4 35.3 37.1

1) Estimation, 2) Forecast
Source: market research company PMR

The company for classic clothing Bytom (http://www.bytom.com.pl, from the same city (Bytom – Beuthen)) that serves the upper segment, wants to create an offer for the masses. It lowered its prices in March 2016. In order to reach more customers, it plans to increase its sales area of from 10,300 square meters in spring 2016 to 15,000 square meters by the end of 2018. The number of its stores should simultaneously rise from 97 to 120.

Bythom will avoid quality losses through savings in the purchasing of clothing. According to Michal Wojcik, chairman of the company, negotiations with representatives of procurement markets are on the way. In 2019 the retail sales of Bytom should reach around 250 million PLN, double as much as in 2015 (123 million PLN). The company will serve the middle segment between large markets with  
mass-production goods and expensive boutiques with domestic and foreign luxury brands.

The two great rivals Bytom and Vistula (http://vistula.pl) from Krakow (Krakau) are receiving increasing competition by smaller companies. Vistula was able to win in 2016 the soccer star Robert Lewandowski for promotional activities, he will appear in suits of the company.

The stockbroker office of the Bank BZ WBK believes in good opportunities of the smaller chain Monnari  (http://www.emonnari.pl), which could double its sales area until 2019. With the proliferation of the growing clothing and footwear chains a consolidation of the retail structure goes along, and the total numbers of stores will overall decrease.

The chains Vistula, Bytom and Monnari are expanding domestically only, where they expand their retail spaces annually by 10 to 25%. Since only one third of the by Vistula and Bytom sold collections are being settled on a USD basis, they are not hurt as much by the strong upvaluation of the US currency as LPP, the manufacturer of mass-products. This company buys almost its entire collection in the  
Far East in US currency. In the case of the footwear chain CCC, the proportion is 40 to 50%.

Number of shops for clothing and footwear
  2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Clothing 32,100 30,700 29,400 28,700 28,400
Shoes  

7,610

7,464 7,215 7,029 6,86

Source: Bisnode

CCC strives towards west

The retail chain CCC (http://ccc.eu), which is also represented abroad including in Germany and Austria, has acquired for more than ZL 200 million the online shop for shoes eobuwie.pl (http://www.eobuwie.pl). By 2016 a further strong expansion is planned, for which it wants to raise about PLN 140 million. The sales area should become 27% net bigger with at least 100,000 square meters. This was announced by the deputy chairman of CCC, Mr. Piotr Nowjalis.

The majority of the new area (77,000 square meters) is planned abroad, where 110 stores should be opened. In the focus here are Germany, Austria and Romania. Domestically CCC is planning a new sales area of 23000 square meters for 40 stores. These plans represent an acceleration compared to 2015, when the total sales area had increased by 66,000 square meters net (+ 22%). At the end of 2015 there were at home and abroad 773 CCC stores with a total of 372,000 square meters. 

Forecasts for and results of apparel and footwear chains (in PLN million)
Company Revenues 2015 Revenues 2016 *)   Net income 2015   Net income 2016 *)
LPP 5,130 6,062 352 510
CCC 2,407 3,043 237 271
Vistula 517 565 31.5 38.5
Monnari 214 258 35.5 34.5
Bytom 131 160 13.3 16.1
CDRL 183 201 14.2 14.9
Gino Rossi 278 301 6.7 10.0
Wojas 220 240 6.3 8.4

*) Forecast of the press agency Bloomberg, February 2016
Source: Newspaper Rzeczpospolita

According to a forecast of Bloomberg, the most important apparel and footwear companies will improve their results in 2016. Leader LPP supplies with its brands Reserved, Mohito, Cropp, House and Sinsay a wide audience. To the upscale segment belongs the new brand Tallinder, which is being offered since February 2016 in a first store in Gdansk (Danzig). Beginning in 2019 there should be 30 sales stores for the brand Tallinder, which then will compete with Vistula, Bytom and Prochnik.   

Market shares of classic man’s wear 2014 (in %)
Vistula und Wolczanka Bytom  Prochnik  Übrige
30 14 6 50

Source: Newspaper Rzeczpospolita

In 2016 LPP wants to increase its retail space at home and abroad by 11 to 13%, that is about 90,000 square meters. End of the year thus 1,716 shops could belong to the company. To date, 23% of the sales area of LPP is in the Russian Federation and Ukraine. The profits there were again impacted by the devaluation of the local currencies against the Zloty.

Foreign trade increases

The Polish imports of clothing exceed the exports. Especially Asian countries could increase their deliveries in 2014, but also Germany belongs to the leading suppliers and attained growth. Among the importing countries Germany plays by far the most important role. The followers are the Netherlands, Czech Republic, Austria, Sweden and other, mostly European countries.

Foreign trade with clothing from woven fabrics (in PLN mio)
Custom tariff 6201 bis 6209 2012 2013 2014
Import, including 5,251.0 5,392.4 6,910.0
PR China 2,319.4 2,115.3 2,532.3
Bangladesch   666.6 758.4 1,019.2
Germany 278.8 522.1 607.7
Turkey  333.0 290.6 404.3
India 264.5 258.8 329.9
Export, including   5,416.9 5,895.4 6,830.1
Germany 2,628.9 2,997.3 3,677.7

Source: Central Statistical Office GUS

Although Poland supplies clothing to Germany at a large extent, it is not easy for the companies to settle in the western neighboring country with own shops and their own brands. LPP opened its first store in Germany in September 2014, in spring of 2016 there were already twelve. In three years there should be 30 stores. In 2015 the German LPP stores generated approximately 94 million PLN, but probably without profit because of investment costs and advertising.

Foreign trade of knitted and crocheted clothing (in PLN mio)
Zolltarifposition 6101 bis 6114 2012 2013 2014
Import, including 4,990.3 5,191.6 6,748.2
PR China   1,575.2 1,574.1 1,970.7
Bangladesch   963.9 903.2 1,258.8
Germany 349.2 538.1 723.8
Turkey 479.3 512.9 628.7
Cambodia 278.4 235.4 464.3
Export, thereof 4,150.1 4,521.4 5,108.9
Germany 1,794.8 1,888.0 2,343.8

Source: Central Statistical Office GUS

In 2015 Polish exports of apparel, accessories and other textile products and footwear continued to rise.

Export of garments, accessories, textiles and footwear (in PLN billion)
  2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Apparel, Accessoires, Textiles 12.0 13.5 13.9 15.1 17.3 21.4
Shoes 1.6 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.3 4.0

Source: Central Statistical Office GUS

Supply chains in Asia are in motion © Tokamuwi/ pixelio.de
08.03.2016

SUPPLY CHAINS IN ASIA ARE IN MOTION

  • Vietnam is largest beneficiary
  • Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

  • Vietnam is largest beneficiary
  • Relocation closer to sales markets

Hong Kong (gtai) - For global consumer product manufacturers, Asia has developed an important role as a procurement region. Large parts of production have been displaced in recent decades into the region and here traditionally mainly to China. The rising costs in China however lead to a strategy adjustment. Thus the production moved on to cheaper locations and a shift back closer to the end customer began. Free trade arrangements support this trend.

Labor costs in China will not move down again. Even when the economic growth increasingly weakens, China's coastal regions are already often too expensive for wage-intensive productions. The world's largest location of the manufacturing sector will anyway leave its dependence of exports and will generate more growth through domestic consumption. The remaining companies are therefore increasingly focused on Chinese customers. Has the textile industry heard the signals already several years ago and shifted away, now the electronics companies have started to search.

But – the relocation of production is not so easy, the experts agreed upon at the discussion panel Shifting Supply Chains in Asia on the Asian Financial Forum (AFF) in Hong Kong. Because no country, except India, offers such a workforce. But neither the infrastructure and the investment climate can match, nor the country has any interest in low-production stages. Furthermore China has set up a supply industry without any comparison.

Relocation trends slow down

Even Bangladesh, established for a long time as a cheap location for clothes, is losing its attractiveness - experts say. Besides fundamentally difficult production conditions especially scandals like collapsing factories are responsible. No western clothing manufacturer likes to be associated with that repute today. While Indonesia was generally judged for being rather little investment friendly, the Philippines would provide a better reputation than years ago. So in addition to numerous Japanese producers also German companies have moved from southern China to the special areas of the Philippines.

Due to wage cost increases by an average of 15% per year, China with it’s the low-wage area has catapulted itself in a large extent out of the market. In times of rising productivity this was compensated for a while but at last the model came to its limits. The empire of the middle will therefore make the leap to a consumptionbased growth based on production of high-tech and on the provision of services. It is still
unclear whether this leap across the "middleincome trap" will succeed. Many emerging countries are caught in this trap, and the growth is flagging.

German buyers order less in China

Accordingly German retailers are increasingly reducing their imports from China and buy more and more in other countries. This is the result of a member survey of the Foreign Trade Association of German Retailers (AVE), at which for the most part textile and shoe retailers participated. 80% of the respondents have already reduced their import volume from China in 2015, 90% of the companies said they are
planning to source from other supply regions. The merchants are seeing a shift to countries like Myanmar (78%), Bangladesh (67%) and Vietnam (56%).

Vietnam, which already benefited in recent years from the relocation, was still recommended on the AFF as a top location. The country with the highest economic growth in Southeast Asia in 2015 would have risen in the 1st half of 2015 to the fourth-largest exporter of textiles, the Vietnam National Textile and Garment Group (Vinatex) analyzed. For shoes it is already the third largest supplier worldwide. Based on mega investments from Samsung, now the electronics industry came out of the starting blocks and should attract more activities. Experts cite especially the mixture of young, growing populations with low labor costs as an important locational advantage.

Vietnam benefits from Free Trade Agreements (FTA)

A thrust Vietnam's attractiveness currently receives through free trade agreements which are in a final stage. So a free trade agreement with the European Union was signed in December 2015 which was followed early February 2016 by the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). The latter agreement, which includes next to ten other Pacific neighbors the United States, should bring a large benefit for Vietnam. For the Vietnamese consumer goods manufacturers the US is the most important market, the large retailers in the United States can move their procurements very fast.

As an underdeveloped member Vietnam is likely to get larger portions of the value chain in the textile and electronics area at the ratification (and even before). The country is still missing a developed supplier structure. This is just happening to be built in the textile sector, there are investments in capacity for yarns, fabrics and dyeing going on. For Samsung, the largest foreign investor, all components are still coming
from China. And only when a large proportion of the added value comes from TPP member states, the low duty will become applicable.

While the purchasing power is not quite so big in Europe, costs play an important role also there. But next to it the control of the supply chain and the flexibility has developed a greater role, rapid changes of trends and collections are determined by customers and the Internet. Therefore also here a shift back, closer to the markets, has begun. Romania and Bulgaria have established themselves in the middle of
Europe as a "low-wage locations". But even there the population is characterized by aging. Accordingly labor forces will become scare and wages will rise. Ukraine is traded as a new location.

Africa still with small potential

Little potential the experts from the Supply Chain Panels evidence the location of sub-Saharan Africa. This was tested by some buyers or producers, but the results would not be convincing. The views however diverge. Some Chinese companies are already partly on site and American manufacturers are monitoring the further development. So, for example, the VF Corporation, the largest denim retailer in the world, is buying in Africa. Only Ethiopia would have potential - according to a representative. But the infrastructure, investment climate and working morale could not be comparable.

So - basically serious alternatives to the established locations are lacking. Therefore, due to the scarcity of labor, costs and thus the final prices will rise. Even in Vietnam the minimum wage increased by 15% in 2015. But when it will be hardly possible to turn at the purchase screw, the companies need to position themselves better in marketing and sales, so a large clothing buyer. Therefore social media must be used in order to come closer to the customer and, for example, to develop individualization as a selling point.

The buying hotspots for clothes for the upcoming years (survey early 2015)
Country Named among the Top-3
Bangladesh 48%
Vietnam 33%
India 30%
Myanmar 30%
Turkey 30%
PR China 23%
Ethiopia 13%
Indonesia 10%
Egypt 5%
Sri Lanka 5%
Tunesia 5%

Source: McKinsey survey of chief purchasing managers