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12.03.2019

RUSSIAN ONLINE RETAILERS ARE FOUNDING LOCAL AMAZONS

  • E-Commerce Market continues to grow rapidly

Russia's online retailers are entering into strategic alliances. The market is maturing and consolidating. German suppliers must prepare themselves for tougher competition.
Russia's online trade continues to record strong growth rates. In 2018, sales increased by 19 percent year-on-year to around Rubel 1.2 billion (EUR 15.5 billion; 1 EUR = 74.04
Rubles, annual average exchange rate 2018). This corresponded to about 290 million orders, according to Data Insight's analysis. By the end of 2023, the investment bank Morgan Stanley expects annual growth of 25 percent to Rubles 3.5 billion. In 2018, the cross-border Internet trade increased by 29 percent to the equivalent of EUR 4.7 billion.

  • E-Commerce Market continues to grow rapidly

Russia's online retailers are entering into strategic alliances. The market is maturing and consolidating. German suppliers must prepare themselves for tougher competition.
Russia's online trade continues to record strong growth rates. In 2018, sales increased by 19 percent year-on-year to around Rubel 1.2 billion (EUR 15.5 billion; 1 EUR = 74.04
Rubles, annual average exchange rate 2018). This corresponded to about 290 million orders, according to Data Insight's analysis. By the end of 2023, the investment bank Morgan Stanley expects annual growth of 25 percent to Rubles 3.5 billion. In 2018, the cross-border Internet trade increased by 29 percent to the equivalent of EUR 4.7 billion.

Development of the Russian online trade
  2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Sales (Bn. Rubel) 1) 560 650 805 965 1.150
Change (in %) 2) 34.9 16.1 23.0 20.0 19.0


1) Physical goods only; excluding cross-border trade, deliveries of ready meals, tickets for transport and events, coupons, consumer-to-consumer and multi-level marketing;
2) Nominal year-on-year; variance due to rounding.
Sources: Market research institute Data Insight; Association of Online Retailers (NAMO)

The share of e-commerce in retail sales is currently still around 5 percent. With the "Strategy for the Development of Online Trade by 2025", the government wants to increase this up to 20 percent. The conditions for further growth are good, as Russian consumers are Internet-savvy and open to technical innovations. Already 76 percent of all Russians have an Internet connection. According to the national "Digital Economy" project, broadband Internet penetration is expected to reach 97 percent by 2024.
 
Growth potential far from exhausted
Russia's online retailers are following this trend by modernizing their websites and are investing in goods logistics. Electronic marketplaces are becoming increasingly popular. This is because they offer smaller Internet retailers in particular the opportunity to assert themselves against the market leaders.
In the Forbes ranking of the 20 most valuable Internet companies in Russia, online retailers Wildberries and Ozon rank fourth and fifth respectively. The Russian fashion mail order company Lamoda - a foundation of the German Rocket Internet - is in ninth place.     
The Otto Group realigned its business model in Russia in 2018 and removed its subsidiaries Quelle and Otto from the market. The Hamburg-based group relies on the online brands Bonprix and Witt as well as on the eSolutions platform, which offers B2B services in the areas of marketing, sales, logistics and IT.

Leading online retailers in Russia
Company Productportfolio Sales 2017 (Bn. Rubel) Change 2017/2016 (in %) Number of orders (in Mio.)
Wildberries Clothing, Shoes,
Accessoires
63.8 40.0 39.8
Citilink Goods of all kind 55.2 35.0 5.2
DNS-Shop / Technopoint Entertainment electronics,
Household appliances
38.9 61.0 5.8
M.Video Entertainment electronics,
Household appliances
36.7 41.0 3.6
Eldorado Entertainment electronics,
Household appliances
23.7 2.0 4.3
Lamoda Clothing, Shoes,
Accessoires
23.6 6.0 4.0
Ozon Goods of all kind 23.4 44.0 8.6
Ulmart Goods of all kind 23.1 -37.0 5.9
Bonprix Clothing, Accessoires 16.5 10.0 4.0
Svyaznoy Entertainment electronics,
Household appliances
15.7 35.0 1.5

Source: Data Insight (http://datainsight.ru/top100/)

Russia gets two "local Amazons" at once 
Russian online trading is already firmly in the hands of a few large players who are continuing to expand their market presence. The market leader Wildberries added electronics and household appliances to its range in 2018. AFK Sistema Holding of the oligarch Yevgeny Yevtushenkov has increased its stake in the online retailer Ozon and is investing in the construction of new logistics centers In addition, Ozon started selling medicines, jewellery and ready meals.  

In April 2018, the Russian technology group Yandex and Sberbank agreed to establish the Beru and Bringly online marketplaces. The aim is to further develop the Yandex.Market platform into a "Russian Amazon". Russia's largest bank brings in the customer data of 100 million account holders.
Beru and Bringly's range mainly includes high-priced goods such as electronics, clothing, shoes and cosmetics. Bringly cooperates with the British cosmetics chain Feelunique, among others. In September 2018, Yandex.Market also concluded a cooperation agreement with Hepsiburada, Turkey's largest online marketplace. 

Alibaba expands its market presence in Russia
In September 2018, the next major merger in Russian online trading was announced: The Mail.ru Group and Megafon (part of the company empire of the oligarch Alisher Usmanow), the Russian Fund for Direct Investments and the Chinese technology group Alibaba intend to establish a joint online marketplace by the end of the first quarter of 2019. Alibaba intends to expand its presence on the Russian market.
The Mail.ru Group provides access to the data records of around 100 million users - an enormous new customer potential for the Chinese online giant. On March 5th  2019, AliExpress, the Russian subsidiary of Alibaba, also launched a platform for the sale of passenger cars of the Chinese brand Chery.

Duty-free limit continues to fall
Two thirds of Russian online buyers also order goods from foreign traders. 90 percent of the deliveries come from China. If the price and weight of the product are within the exemption limits, no sales tax is payable. On 1 January 2019, the exemption limit for cross-border online trading was halved to EUR 500 and the weight limit was lowered from 31 to 25 kilograms. From January 1st   2020, the tax-free allowance will fall to EUR 200.  However, this measure is unlikely to generate any additional revenue for the Russian State. In 86 percent of cross-border online purchases, the maximum value of goods is at about USD 22.

Above all, capacity bottlenecks in the delivery of online orders are currently putting the brakes on sector. VTB-Bank is therefore investing around EUR 410 million in the construction of 40 logistics and distribution centers for the Russian Post Office (Potschta Rossii) by 2021. The state-owned company intends to profit from the growth in the online commerce and increase its revenue from parcel services for e-commerce to Rubel 122 billion by 2023. Since September 2018, the Russian Post has been distributing deliveries from China via hubs in Siberia and the Far East.
The logistics service provider DPD has been working with the Avito advertising portal since October 2018. In future Its customers will be able to collect their parcels at around 1,500 DPD stations. Since June 2018 DHL and eBay have been working together on logistics services in Russia.

The development of B2B platforms is becoming increasingly important in Russia's online trade. The potential is huge: the Russian B2B online market amounts to around USD 20 billion - and the trend is rising. Pioneers such as Sewerstal, Alrosa or Technonikol already rely on B2B platforms to sell directly to their end customers. In 2018, the Chinese Fosun Group acquired around 20 percent of the shares in the B2B platform Prod.Center, on which agricultural products are traded.

More information:
Russia E-Commerce
Source:

Hans-Jürgen Wittmann, Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de

13.11.2018

TUNISIA'S TEXTILE SECTOR RECOVERS

German suppliers can benefit from production expansions
Tunis (GTAI) - After difficult years, Tunisia's textile sector is recovering. Exports and foreign investment are on the rise again. Production is for export, especially to Europe.

At the end of October 2018, the Swiss auditing group SGS reported its expanded testing capacity for textiles in Tunisia. This was in response to the increased demand from producers producing for the world market in Tunisia. The sector has not been doing well in recent years. Even before the revolution in 2011, competitive pressure from Asian producers had left its mark, especially after the expiry of the multi-fiber agreement in 2005. According to the FTTH (Fédération Tunisienne du textile et de l'habillement), more than 400 companies have left the country since 2011 and 40,000 jobs have been lost.

German suppliers can benefit from production expansions
Tunis (GTAI) - After difficult years, Tunisia's textile sector is recovering. Exports and foreign investment are on the rise again. Production is for export, especially to Europe.

At the end of October 2018, the Swiss auditing group SGS reported its expanded testing capacity for textiles in Tunisia. This was in response to the increased demand from producers producing for the world market in Tunisia. The sector has not been doing well in recent years. Even before the revolution in 2011, competitive pressure from Asian producers had left its mark, especially after the expiry of the multi-fiber agreement in 2005. According to the FTTH (Fédération Tunisienne du textile et de l'habillement), more than 400 companies have left the country since 2011 and 40,000 jobs have been lost.

Now positive news are coming: In 2018, for example, the German Gonser Group opened its fifth production facility in Tunisia. In total, foreign direct investments in the first six months of 2018 amounted to Tunisian Dinar (tD) 24.9 million (approx. EUR 7.5 million), 1 tD = approx. EUR 0.301as of 11. 07.), more than twice as high as in the corresponding period of the previous year. The fact, that the number of new created jobs as a result has risen much less, can be seen as confirmation of the structural change: Away from simple mass production to higher-value production.

A high level of employee training is also decisive for this. The Sartex company shows how this can be ensured. In 2014, the Tunisian company opened a training center, in which some 500 Tunisians have already been trained and most of them were hired by Sartex. The company was supported by the Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and the Centre d'Orientation et de Reconversion Professionnelle (CORP) of the AHK Tunisia.

During the visit of Federal Development Minister Müller in October 2018, an agreement was signed on the establishment of a training center in EL Alia in the Bizerte governorate. Among others the German company van Laack is producing in the region. A total of 180,000 Tunisians now work in the textile sector, which accounts with that for about 40 percent of industrial jobs.

Wage increases in two steps
More than one year after its foundation, FTTH has established itself as the interest representative of textile companies. In 2017 the company split from the employers' association UTICA (Union Tunisians de l'Industrie, du Commerce et de l'Artisanat), not least because the envisaged general wage increases for the company's own industrial sector were considered unworkable. But meanwhile, common ground and cooperation have been emphasized again, or FTTH describes itself as part of UTICA, with a high degree of autonomy.

An agreement has now also been reached with the Union Générale Tunisienne du Travail (UGTT). This provides for wage increases of 6.5 percent as of 1 January 2019 and 2020 respectively. This wage increases are thus likely to be lower than the inflation, provided that the forecasts for the inflation rate of around 7.5 percent for the current year 2018 will be that way. Currently, the minimum wage in Tunisia's textile and clothing industry for unskilled job starters is around EUR 129 (as of 07-11-2018) per 48-hour week.

Of the more than 1,600 textile companies, over 1,400 are producing exclusively for export. The target markets are clearly in Europe. More than 60 percent of exports went to France and Italy in 2016, with Germany in third place with about 11 percent. As the largest non-European customer, the USA was ranked ninth with less than one per cent. By joining the Common Market for Southern and Eastern Africa (COMESA), Tunisia aims to develop new markets. According to the Ministry of Commerce, bilateral talks are underway with several African countries to provide duty-free market access for Tunisian textiles.

Are Chinese investors discovering Tunisia as a location?
In addition to the relations with the African continent, relations with China could also change in the medium term. At the China-Africa Cooperation Forum held in Beijing in September 2018, Chinese textile companies expressed their interest in Tunisia as a production location. As wages have increased in China in the meantime, a relocation of production to certain sectors of the textile industry could prove useful for the European market.

Exports already increased in 2017. The trend seems to continue in 2018. In 2016 exports were USD 2.9 billion, in 2017 USD 3 billion (a significant increase due to the Dinar's decline in exchange rates (7 billion tD against tD 8.4 billion). According to the first announcements, exports to Europe in the first months of 2018 are expected to have increased again by 3.5 percent compared to 2017. Improving transport and customs clearance should be important for the further development of the textile sector. Especially the companies producing purely for export express this again and again. The textile sector in particular is dependent on short delivery times.

Meanwhile, FTTH is also working to improve the competitive position of Tunisian textile companies on their home market. This applies, for example, to the imports of used clothing for which stricter controls are being desired.

Tunisian imports of machinery, apparatus and equipment for the textile and leather industries and parts thereof (SITC 724; in USD million)
Origin 2015 2016 2017
Total 68.8 67.0 67.3
Italy 15.8 13.7 17.9
China 20.5 12.4 10.6
France   6.5   4.0   7.4
Germany   5.0   6.3   7.2

Note: Thailand was the third largest supplier in 2016, but fell behind in 2017. The table shows the four most important suppliers in 2017
Source: UN Comtrade

In addition to production expansions by German companies, German suppliers could also benefit if the recovery and, above all, structural changes will continue. While total imports of textile and leather machinery fell slightly from around USD 70 million to USD 67 million between 2015 and 2017, German deliveries increased from USD 5 million to USD 7.2 million. (JPS)

Further information on the Chinese commitment in Tunisia can be found online (German only): Link

 

More information:
Tunesia GTAI
Source:

Peter Schmitz, Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de

INDIA'S GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS TEXTILE INDUSTRY Photo: Pixabay
11.09.2018

INDIA'S GOVERNMENT SUPPORTS TEXTILE INDUSTRY

  • Clothing exports are declining 

New Delhi (GTAI) - Structural weaknesses and fiscal reforms are affecting the Indian textile industry. Modernization and diversification are necessary. For this where support measures will come into force.

  • Clothing exports are declining 

New Delhi (GTAI) - Structural weaknesses and fiscal reforms are affecting the Indian textile industry. Modernization and diversification are necessary. For this where support measures will come into force.

In the 2016/17 fiscal year (April 1st to March 31st), India's government initiated a number of fundamental reforms such as the introduction of the nationwide Goods and Services Tax (GST) and a partial currency devaluation. These measures are intended to advance the economy as a whole in the medium to long term, but have led to uncertainty and difficulties in individual sectors, including the textile industry. Added to this are high cotton prices. The government is now trying to help the industry with individual measures. It remains to be seen whether these will be sufficient and lead to a sustained improvement. Finally, there are structural weaknesses which are also slowing down the growth of the Industry.

"The by the introduction of GST caused dent and monetary depreciation has now been overcome. However, the structural problems remain, so that no fundamental changes in the textile industry are to be expected", according to the assessment of a German supplier with many years of experience in India in talks with Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI).

Government launches aid measures
However, some government measures should provide relief. At the beginning of August 2018, import duties on 328 textile products, especially fabrics and nonwovens, were increased from around 5 to 10 percent to up to 20 percent. Also, at the beginning of the month, the Executive Board introduced four bills to amend the general VAT Act introduced on July 1st 2017. This should make refunds, for example of taxes on intermediate products, easier and faster. The introduction of GST and the delays in reimbursement have put particular pressure on the liquidity of small and medium-sized companies, which make up the bulk of textile companies. For example, the denim industry temporarily had to take 25 to 30 percent of its capacity out of production after the tax introduction.

 Also, the Ministry of Textiles wants to strengthen the to it entrusted weakening industry. At the beginning of August 2018, for example, it added changes to the Technology Upgradation Funds Scheme (TUFS), which has been in existence since 1999. This now expanded technology promotion program allows cooperative banks to provide financing to textile companies for technological improvements. They also become accessible for liability partnerships. Of the approximately USD 1.1 billion, that the central government budget is holding for the textile industry in the fiscal year 2018/19, one third, 14 percent more than in the previous year, are intended for the TUFS. Manufacturers of synthetic fibers and the clothing industry in particular are likely to benefit from this, according to industry sources.

The existence of an own Ministry of Textiles shows how important this industry is for India, not only as a source of foreign exchange, but also as an employer. The entire sector, from spinning mills, weaving mills to clothing and other finished goods, contributed around 14 percent to value creation in the manufacturing industry and 13 percent to foreign exchange revenues in 2017, and employs directly 40 million and indirectly 60 million workers.

As one of the world's leading producers of cotton, jute and silk, India has comparative advantages in the textile sector and can look back on a long tradition in processing. Accordingly, cotton is the main raw material in yarn and fabric production. After all, 5.7 billion tons of yarn were spun in 2016/17, achieving an annual average increase of 3.1 percent between 2011 and 2017. The weaving mills processed 63.5 billion square meters of fabric in 2016/17, after 61.7 billion in 2011. The proportion of cotton fabrics rose from 51 to 61 percent in 2011 to 2017. The remaining part is accounted for approximately equally by synthetic and blended fabrics.

 
Production and export growth come to a halt Based on the previously strong growth the government is optimistic. According to forecasts by the Ministry of Textile, India's textile and clothing industry is expected to more than double its sales between 2015 and 2021. Exports are expected to increase from USD 35 billion to USD 82 billion, after doubling in the period from 2006 to 2014 from USD 17.6 billion to USD 37.6 billion. After that, however, they stagnated and, at USD 35 billion in 2017/18 and missed the by the government set target by USD 10 billion. The production of textiles and clothing declined from 2015 to 2017. It is unlikely to improve in 2018.

Textile and clothing industry in India 1)
  2015/16
 
2016/17 2)  2017/18 2)
Export of textiles and textiles products USD in USD billion 18.1 18.2 18.7
Export of clothing 17.0 17.4 16.7
Import of yarn, fabrics, made-ups in USD billion 1.7 1.5 n.a.
Change of production of textiles in % -0.2 -3.2 n.a.
Change of production of non-knitted clothing in % -3.6 -3.3 n.a.


1) Financial years from 1 April to 31 March; 2) Provisional data for 2016/17 and 2017/18
Source: Statistical Office India
     

Clothing industry needs to modernize 
India's textile industry has cost advantages over industrialized countries and advanced emerging countries such as China. Smaller developing countries, however, have become well-known competitors in the meantime and have partly surpassed India in terms of clothing. So Bangladesh and Vietnam exported more clothing than India. In addition there is growing competition from other low-wage countries such as Cambodia, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. Some of these countries have free trade agreements with the EU, while India has difficulties in negotiating them. The smaller competitors have also geared their clothing industry to exports and modernized it accordingly. After all, they do not have significant local markets. The Indian textile manufacturers are different: If there is not enough quality for export, the domestic market, which has a population of 1.3 billion inhabitants and is growing strongly, is still there, industry representatives explain to GTAI.

India's apparel industry therefore still has a considerable potential for modernization and requires new production technologies, particularly to improve operating efficiency. Other structural weaknesses include strong wage increases with insufficient productivity growth and a shortage of well-trained skilled workers. Other disadvantages are the fragmentation of the clothing industry - many companies lack size - and the lack of adaptation to global fashion trends. While the fashion world is more prone to fiber mixed fabrics, the Indian clothing is not yet following this trend. There is a lack of product diversification.

The spinning and weaving sector looks more modern. Industry experts attest to it a leading international position in terms of size, technology, productivity, quality and price. This is also evident when importing machines. India was the most important export market for German spinning machines to China in 2017 and the fifth largest market for weaving machines, according to the Textile Machinery Association of the German Engineering Federation (VDMA). In textile finishing machinery, India does not rank among the top six export markets, but its competitor Bangladesh does.

Double-digit growth in foreign direct Investment 
Foreign investments in the Indian textile industry are welcome and 100 percent foundations by foreign companies are welcome. On promotional trips to countries such as Japan, Germany, Italy and France, India is actively attracting investors and has not been unsuccessful. The inflow of foreign direct investment into the textile sector, including dyed and printed textiles, amounted to USD 2.7 billion between April 2000 and September 2017. Cumulative investments increased by an annual average of 17.3 percent between 2010 and 2017. However, the bulk of the investment is being stemmed by national Indians. Total investments in India's textile sector from June 2017 to May 2018 amounted to USD 4.2 Billion.

Contact Details
Name Internet Remark
Germany Trade & Invest http://www.gtai.de/indien Foreign information for the German Export Business
AHK Indien http://www.indien.ahk.de Contact for German companies
Ministry of Textiles http://www.texmin.nic.in Ministry
Office of Textile Commissioner http://www.txcindia.gov.in Government 
Confederation of Indian Textile Industry http://www.citiindia.com Textile Association
Textile Association India http://www.textileassociationindia.org Textile Association India
The Clothing Manufacturers Association of India http://www.cmai.in Clothing Association


    

More information:
India Bangladesh(7621)
Source:

Rainer Jaensch, Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de

13.03.2018

CONVERSION OF THE CLOTHING INDUSTRY IN BANGLADESH NOT YET COMPLETED

  • Eports grow slowly
  • Industry needs new concepts

Dhaka (GTAI) - The garment industry is the main industry in Bangladesh. The state of the companies has improved since 2013 - when a building with several factories collapsed. Domestic and foreign companies have invested in new processes. Government and associations want to further increase the security. Exports are growing slower. The international competition forces the companies to produce not only more sustainable, but also more efficient and innovative.

On April 24th 2013, north of the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka, the Rana Plaza building collapsed, housing five clothing factories. The disaster claimed 1,138 lives and more injuries. The disaster in-cised deep into the country's largest industrial sector. The massive problems with building and safety as well as violations of workers' rights became internationally visible at once and then vigor-ously tackled.

  • Eports grow slowly
  • Industry needs new concepts

Dhaka (GTAI) - The garment industry is the main industry in Bangladesh. The state of the companies has improved since 2013 - when a building with several factories collapsed. Domestic and foreign companies have invested in new processes. Government and associations want to further increase the security. Exports are growing slower. The international competition forces the companies to produce not only more sustainable, but also more efficient and innovative.

On April 24th 2013, north of the Bangladeshi capital Dhaka, the Rana Plaza building collapsed, housing five clothing factories. The disaster claimed 1,138 lives and more injuries. The disaster in-cised deep into the country's largest industrial sector. The massive problems with building and safety as well as violations of workers' rights became internationally visible at once and then vigor-ously tackled.

Foreign companies have invested heavily in the textile and clothing industry in recent years, with a record high in the year after the disaster. According to the Central Bank, foreign direct investment (FDI) in the textile and clothing industry in June 2017 reached a respectable USD 2.6 billion. Com-panies from South Korea have been the largest contributors with USD 766 million, followed by Hong Kong investors with USD 448 million and the United Kingdom with USD 243 million

FDI inflows into the Bangladeshi textile and clothing industry (in USD millions.)
Financial year 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17
FDI inflows, net 241 412 446 352 396 360

      *) Financial year from July 1st to June 30th

Several successful programs for more security
Government and international organizations responded with many measures and initiatives at Rana Plaza. The International Labor Organization (ILO) launched programs to improve work-ing conditions. Buyers and industry representatives were looking for solutions.

International traders, trade unions and non-governmental organi-zations finally signed a binding agreement for more fire and building safety in 2013 (Accord on Fire and Building Safety). Employees of Accord have since reviewed more than 1,600 tex-tile and garment factories. Approximately 86 percent of the iden-tified deficiencies were eliminated according to an interim report dated January 2018. Accord will expire in November 2018 after five years. Some participants of the alliance have agreed an ex-tension of the program of three years.

In particular North American importers launched the Alliance (Al-liance for Bangladesh Worker Safety) program in 2013. The Al-liance has since reviewed 666 factories that, as of February 2018, have remedied approximately 87 percent of the deficien-cies. The program will expire also after five years in May 2018.
Representatives of industry and government, trade unions, ILO, the Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association (BGMEA) and international buyers want to co-ordinate the control and rehabilitation measures together. The BGMEA and the government rely on the NI National Initiative, which they developed together with ILO. The Department of Inspection of Factories and Establishments is responsible for NI controls. Under the NI program 1,500 factories have been inspected which are working for do-mestic customers. The program is to be extended to exporting companies and will replace Accord and Alliance.

Workers demand more rights and higher wages
The government made it easier to found and to engage in trade unions after the Rana Plaza disas-ter. According to observers, the approximately 4 million workers in the textile and clothing industry continue to have little formal organization and went repeatedly on strike for higher wages.

A government commission recently increased the monthly minimum wage in the garment industry from Taka 3,000 to 5,300 in 2013. This amount corresponds currently with EUR 52 only. (1 EU-RO = Taka 102.13, exchange rate of March 5th 2018). Trade unions demanded tripling of the minimum wage at the beginning of 2018, because unskilled workers are given this low pay when they are first employed, which is barely enough to survive. The reward grows only later with the skills and experience.

Employees often change their jobs. According to observers, the fluctuation should average be-tween 5 and 7 percent per month. Fair wages and good working conditions would give a good in-fluence on this issue in the companies concerned.

Bangladesh is the second largest exporter of clothing after China
The globally active clothing retailers are buying in Bangladesh on a large scale. Some have offices with hundreds of employees. Major clients include Inditex (Spain), H & M (Sweden), C & A and Tchibo (Germany).

Clothing exports, however, stagnated in the financial year 2016/17. One reason for the weak growth was the strengthened exchange rate. Taka's national currency increased against the US dollar, making exports more expensive and less competitive.

The government is targeting an export growth of 8.1 percent to USD 30.2 billion in 2017/18. The industry is on track indeed, reaching 7.8 percent in the second half of 2017 compared to the same period of the year before. The most important customers are the USA and Germany.

Bangladesh's Apparel Exports (in USD million) 2014/15 *) 2015/16 *) 2016/17 *)
Total     25,491 28,094   28,150
Thereof           
.Weaving goods             13,065 14,739 14,393
.Knitting goods  12,427  13,355 13,757
Customers        
.USA            5,288 5,625 5,204
.Germany  4,339 4,653 5,135
.Great Britain  2,904  3,524 3,307
.Spain        1,626 1,864 1,879
.France  1,618 1,714 1,765
.Italy       1,243 1,278  1,349
.Canada             929 998 946
.Netherlands  627  660 814
.Belgium   772 835 753
.Japan            653 774  744
Poland         548  616 720

*) Financial year from July 1st to June 30th
Sources: Export Promotion Bureau, Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association

Exports from this emerging country enjoy exemption from duty in many developed countries. The European Union grants duty-free and quota-free access. Australia and Japan grant preferential access to the Generalized Scheme of Preferences (GSP). , The USA however has suspended the GSP status in 2013 and imposed tariffs and duties on imports from Bangladesh.

Companies want to grow and become more efficient
The Association of Garment Export Companies BGMEA estimates that over 3,000 garment factories work exclusively for international clients. Another 800 to 1,000 companies sew for local retailers who sell clothing to the country's 160 million inhabitants.

There are no data on company sizes or on the companies with the highest turnover. Clothing companies are mostly registered as private companies and do not publish business figures. The larger ones belong to local conglomerates operating in different economic sectors.

The companies are investing in more modern production facilities to process larger orders faster and at lower unit costs. Imports of machinery and equipment for the textile and clothing industry totaled USD 1.4 billion in 2015. The BGMEA believes that the garment industry has increased its purchases of equipment since.

The added value along the local textile chain is expandable. Simple fabrics and materials are produced locally. The production capacities for fabrics however are not sufficient and need to be increased. The clothing industry is also switching to higher quality synthetic fiber products. Producers hope for higher margins, if, for example, they produce clothing made of elastic fibers or functional clothing made from mixed fibers.

Many pre-products are imported from China and South Korea. Imports however are difficult due to the limited handling capacities of seaports and airports. Logistics costs are high. The clothing sector still has some challenges to overcome.

 

 Bangladesh Garment Manufacturers and Exporters Association

http://www.bgmea.com.bd
Vereinigung der Bekleidungsexportfirmen
Bangladesh Textile Mills Association http://www.btmadhaka.com
Accord on Fire and Building Safety in Bangladesh   http://bangladeshaccord.org  
Alliance for Bangladesh Worker Safety  http://www.bangladeshworkersafety.org

 

 

 

Source:

Thomas Hundt, Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de

BANGLADESH RESTARTS LEATHER INDUSTRY Photo: Pixabay
20.02.2018

BANGLADESH RESTARTS LEATHER INDUSTRY

  • Production and export on the upswing
  • Environmental problems and other challenges remain

The leather industry in Bangladesh reports rising exports and growing domestic demand. The location scores with low labor costs and the availability of leather. However, too many tanneries still burden the environment. The industry structure of the manufacturers of leather goods and shoes ranges from outdated to modern. International, export-oriented companies are showing the way.

  • Production and export on the upswing
  • Environmental problems and other challenges remain

The leather industry in Bangladesh reports rising exports and growing domestic demand. The location scores with low labor costs and the availability of leather. However, too many tanneries still burden the environment. The industry structure of the manufacturers of leather goods and shoes ranges from outdated to modern. International, export-oriented companies are showing the way.

Bangladesh's leather industry is the second largest exporter of the emerging market after the apparel industry. The majority of exports in the 2016/17 financial year (July 1st 2016 to June 31st 2017) were USD 537 million on leather shoes (USD 495 million in the previous year), followed by leather goods with USD 464 million (388 million). The export of leather footwear rose again by 9 per cent in the second half of 2017, leather goods were at the same level as in the same period of the previous year.

By contrast, leather exports reached USD 233 million in 2016/17 (USD 279 million), down 29 percent in the second half of 2017. The main reason is lower demand for leather in China. Instead, it is increasingly being processed in Bangladesh into finished products for domestic and foreign customers.

Potential not yet exhausted
The Department of Commerce wants to quadruple the total exports to USD 5 billion by 2021. It has mandated this task at the Bangladesh Leather Sector Business Promotion Council. This should increase with suitable measures both the production quantities and the processing depth in the country. Leather production and processing have potential because they could well repeat the successful development of the domestic textile and clothing industry.

International investments are welcome. Foreign investors can find a subsidiary in their own hands and apply for subsidies and tax exemptions. Eight export processing zones and other special economic zones offer many legal and technical advantages, says the investment authority Bangladesh Investment Development Authority.

The Association of Leather Goods and Footwear Manufacturers & Exporters of Bangladesh (LFMEAB) reports that companies from Taiwan, China, South Korea and Japan are increasingly investing in the industry. Among other things they are relocating production from China to Bangladesh.

Foreign direct investments in Bangladesh's leather industry
(inventory June 2016 in USD million)

Country of origin Inventory 2016
Taiwan 76
Netherlands 37
Hongkong 26
Korea (Rep.) 17
Total 192

Source: Central bank

According to the Central Bank in the fiscal year 2016/17 USD 82 million were directly invested in the leather industry (previous year: USD 48 million).  Taiwan was by far the largest investor with USD 50 million (USD 14 million).

Also, former investors show a successful development. As an example the German company Picard Lederwaren has a joint venture in 1997 and produces now  32.000 leather bags per month and 40.000 small leather goods per month.

Certified manufacturer of leather goods
The most important buyers of leather goods and shoes are the EU, Japan and the USA. The EU and Japan generally do not impose quotas or import duties on Bangladeshi imports under their preference systems for developing countries.

The export-oriented leather goods manufacturers usually produce at a technical level required by the customers. These include certifications and exams. The trade association LFMEAB is committed to meeting industry-standard levels among its 150 member companies. The European Union also supports a sustainable, resource-efficient development of the leather sector with its ECOLEBAN project. Several tanneries and leather factories have been proven to adhere to the labor and social standards of the UN organization ILO and the ISO standard 14001 for environmental management systems.

With increasing demands and volumes, leather processing companies will also import more quality materials such as soles and accessories. Their machines and equipment are also from abroad.

Problematic conditions in leather production
However the leather is manufactured under problematic conditions. The agricultural land has a population of about 24 million cattle and thus about 1.7 percent of the world's total. The meat industry also processes buffalo and goats in larger quantities. Animals suffer from improper slaughter. Modern slaughtering processes and advanced processing steps could improve the quality of leather production.

The number of tanneries is estimated at more than 200, producing approximately 29 million square meters of leather per year, two-thirds of it are leather from beef skins. The industry has a poor reputation, the situation in many companies is criticized by independent observers. In most companies processes and equipment for occupational safety and environmental protection are not available. According to various reports children are working in poorly controlled factories.

The situation in Hazaribagh is dramatic. The Supreme Court has ordered already in 2003 that the approximately 150 small tanneries from this residential area in Dhaka should move to an alternative location. The public company Bangladesh Small and Cottage Industries Corp. was commissioned to set up the leather industry park Savar Tannery Park in a northern suburb of Dhaka. The complete relocation to the new leather cluster in Savar has since been delayed again and again.

According to the Bangladesh Tanners Association, the move to the Savar leather-industrial-park should have taken place in the meantime, however the local central sewage treatment plant seems not to work completely. The tanneries pollute the environment there as well. Media also report still tannery activity in Hazaribagh.

More skilled workers needed
In a recent 2013 survey the number of leatherworking companies was estimated at 3.500. The manufacturers develop their own designs for the domestic market and some want to place their own brands internationally.

But the intensity of training of skilled personnel does not keep up with the industrialization of the industry. Tanneries and leather industry employ directly and indirectly about 75.000 people. Their knowledge and skills are often based on old and traditional procedures and short briefings.

The need for skilled personnel is estimated at 60.000 persons. A center of excellence is involved in the training since 2009. The Center of Excellence for Leather Skills Bangladesh (COEL) has trained around 15.000 people in machinery and design since. Two universities train engineers in this field. The University of Dhaka has established an Institute of Leather Engineering and Technology, and the Khulna University of Engineering has a leather technology department.

The Ministry of Commerce and the association LFMEAB has organized in November 2017 the first edition of the trade fair BLLISS (Bangladesh Leatherfootwear & Leathergoods International Sourcing Show). The organizers were able to present the procurement market and want to continue the event annually. The industry event attracted 30 exhibitors and 20.000 visitors. The next edition will take place from  November 24th- 26th 2018 in conjunction with the leather technology fair Leathertech (http://www.leathertechbangladesh.com).

Contacts

Name Internet address
Leathergoods and Footwear Manufacturers & Exporters Association of Bangladesh http://www.lfmeab.org
Bangladesh Tanners Association http://www.tannersbd.com
Centre of Excellence for Leather Skill Bangladesh Limited http://coelbd.com
EU-Project ECOLEBAN (2014 until 2018) https://www.ecoleban.com

 

 Ethiopia is considered as investment tip in Sub-Saharan Africa © Pixabay
07.11.2017

ETHIOPIA IS CONSIDERED AS INVESTMENT TIP IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

  • International companies have confidence in government work
  • Chinese set the tone

Nairobi (GTAI) - Foreign companies are flowing into Ethiopia and investing in the textile, clothing and leather sectors. Ethiopia is also interesting for companies that assembling simple technical devices. The country does not look good in various international indices, but that does not have to be a contradiction. For some sectors Ethiopia is highly interesting and hope for improvement is always to be hoped for.

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world and one of many typical developing countries, as there are many on the African continent. The big difference is: Ethiopia is controlled by a regime that is not satisfied with what it has achieved, but is more ambitious: to become a leading, if not the leading, industrialized nation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Model China

  • International companies have confidence in government work
  • Chinese set the tone

Nairobi (GTAI) - Foreign companies are flowing into Ethiopia and investing in the textile, clothing and leather sectors. Ethiopia is also interesting for companies that assembling simple technical devices. The country does not look good in various international indices, but that does not have to be a contradiction. For some sectors Ethiopia is highly interesting and hope for improvement is always to be hoped for.

Ethiopia is one of the poorest countries in the world and one of many typical developing countries, as there are many on the African continent. The big difference is: Ethiopia is controlled by a regime that is not satisfied with what it has achieved, but is more ambitious: to become a leading, if not the leading, industrialized nation in sub-Saharan Africa.

Model China

Despite its geographical location in Africa, large parts of the country's historical and cultural development are strongly influenced from the Middle East. The big role models are therefore not more successful states in Africa but are coming as the United Arab Emirates and China from the East. Thirty years ago, the economic march that Ethiopia is undergoing today, began there: cheap labor, interesting natural resources, enough free land and rivers for energy and irrigation.

The country is thus attractive for labor-intensive industries, especially the textile, clothing and leather industry. A worker in an Ethiopian sweatshop earns an average of USD 909 a year, based on a survey by the US Center for Global Development, compared to USD 835 in Bangladesh, USD 1,776 in Tanzania, and USD 2,118 in Kenya. Another advantage appreciated by employers: In the African context Ethiopian women are considered to be well-educated and less willing to strike.

Special zones of industrial oases

Another location advantage are the industrial zones, which are mostly built by Chinese companies: fencing, strict access controls, no-hole roads, guaranteed electricity and water supply, proper waste and garbage disposal, workers' housing in the area or nearby, shops, banks, medical care. From a European point of view, it may look like exploitation and "big brother", but from an Ethiopian point of view jobs are created, families are fed and foreign exchange is earned.

In July 2016, the Hawassa Industrial Park was officially opened, the largest in sub-Saharan Africa. From here, textiles and clothing are to be exported. By 2018, the park will employ 60,000 workers and generate USD 1 billion in exports. As early as 2030, Ethiopia wants to earn USD 30 billion in this segment. Even if one should not take the last number too seriously, the ambitions are clear and unambiguous.

Another industrial park was inaugurated in July 2017 in the city of Kombolcha. Meanwhile, a whole range of other parks are in various stages of realization, focusing on apparel, textiles, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, as well as the agro-industry. According to the Ethiopian Government, there is no shortage of interested investors, primarily from China, India, Turkey, the US, Hong Kong and South Korea.

Cheap electricity soon abound

While some of the industrial parks still have to rely on standby generators and the connection to roads and railways leaves much to be desired, long-term remedies are in sight: several large hydropower plants are under construction nationwide, especially the Grand Ethiopian-Renaissance Dam project, which will start up the first generators in the current financial year (July 8th 2017 to July 7th 2018). Upon final completion, the capacity should reach 6,450 megawatts. It would then be Africa's largest power plant - and one of the cheapest electricity suppliers.

There are notable successes in road construction also: since August 2016, Ethiopia has got a first fully commissioned 85-kilometer three-lane highway from the capital Addis Ababa to Adama. Further sections are under construction. And also with the railway there is something to celebrate with a new, 756 kilometers long and continuously electrified route between the outskirts of Addis Ababa and the container port in neighboring Djibouti.

Foreign exchange shortage a big hurdle

This positive development cannot hide the fact that large parts of the country are not yet connected to the electricity net, that the road network is inadequate and the railway line is only a small start. Moreover, the bureaucracy is inflated and inefficient and lacks a functioning constitutional state. Currently, an acute lack of foreign exchange hinders imports and profit transfers, as the ambitious infrastructure projects absorb every available dollar in the country.

Investors, however, are speculating on tomorrow: because the country is on the right track and wants to maintain its course. A steady influx of foreign direct investment shows that international companies have sufficient confidence and want to be among the first. In addition next to the low wages, they are interested above all in the underdeveloped and untapped consumer market of 105 million people. For the South African Rand Merchant Bank, Ethiopia is therefore the fourth most attractive investment destination in Africa after Egypt, South Africa and Morocco (Where to Invest in Africa 2018).

Poor placement in international rankings

Even if Ethiopia is predicted to get a bright future, current negative assessments may not be ignored: in the Global Competitiveness Index 2017 - 2018 of the World Economic Forum, Ethiopia ranks 108th (out of 137). In the Index of the Economic Freedom of the World Heritage Foundation Ethiopia belongs to the group of largely unfree countries in 2017 ranked 142 (out of 180). And in the Doing Business Ranking of the World Bank (2017), Ethiopia is in a poor position with 159 (out of 190). By contrast, in 2016 in the Transparency International's Corruption Perceptions Index Ethiopia ranked 108 (out of 175), making it a lighthouse in an otherwise corrupt region (last place: Somalia 176, South Sudan 175, Sudan 170, Eritrea 164, Uganda 151, Kenya 145, Djibouti 123).

In the Fragile States Index 2017 of the Fund for Peace, Ethiopia ranks 15th, ranking among the most fragile states in the world (lowest rank 1 = South Sudan, best rank 178 = Finland). Ethiopia also scored poorly on press freedom and the rule of law: ranked 150th out of 178 in the Press Freedom Index in 2017 and 107th in the Rule of Law Index in 2016 (out of 113).

Economic data in a regional context
  2016 20171) 20181)
Gross domestic product, in USD billion      
..Kenya 70,5 80,7 88,2
..Ethiopia 70,3 72,1 75,3
..Tansania 47,7 50,5 52,5
GDP growth, real, in %        
..Kenya 5,8 5,1 6,1
..Ethiopia 7,6 6,1 5,7
..Tansania 7,0 6,4 6,0
Import of goods, in USD billion, fob      
..Kenya 13,62) 14,5 15,1
..Ethiopia 16,02) 16,8 17,0
..Tansania 8,52) 8,6 9,0

1) Prognosis
2) Estimation
Source: Economist Intelligence Unit

08.08.2017

INDIA'S TEXTILE AND CLOTHING INDUSTRY STRONGLY SUPPORTED

  • Textile companies comparatively broadly placed 
  • Garment sector scores too little internationally 

New Delhi (GTAI) - India is one of the world's largest manufacturers of textiles. Cotton fabrics and home textiles are among the export hits. The clothing industry plays a comparatively small role and threatens to fall behind in competition. Both areas are required to produce higher qualities and more sustainable. The Ministry of Textiles supports the fragmented industry. Foreign suppliers and buyers can explore the market at trade fairs.

  • Textile companies comparatively broadly placed 
  • Garment sector scores too little internationally 

New Delhi (GTAI) - India is one of the world's largest manufacturers of textiles. Cotton fabrics and home textiles are among the export hits. The clothing industry plays a comparatively small role and threatens to fall behind in competition. Both areas are required to produce higher qualities and more sustainable. The Ministry of Textiles supports the fragmented industry. Foreign suppliers and buyers can explore the market at trade fairs.

The Indian textile and clothing industry is of an overall economic importance. It accounts for 14% of the total industrial production and employs directly 51 million people. Additional further 68 million people in households and micro enterprises are working for the industrial companies. Because the national economy as a whole needs to create about 12 million additional jobs per year, the government has chosen the textile industry as an employment motor. India, in contrast to the textile giant PRC, has high advantages with its labor cost.

 
The availability of natural materials such as cotton, jute and silk is a further advantage of the textile industry, which can look back on a long tradition of processing. India is now the world's largest producer of cotton. In the cultivation year 2016/17 year (4.1 - 31.3) estimated 5.9 million tons are expected to be harvested.

The cotton will be processed into yarns and fabrics. For the production of yarns, 61 million spindles (measured in spindle equivalents) are available. In 2015/16, they spun about 5.7 million t of yarn, of which 4.1 million t are made out of cotton fibers. The production of cotton cloths was about 38 billion sqm., mainly produced in decentralized weaving mills with simple mechanical looms. The global trend in clothing, however, goes to artificial fibers. In order to protect their domestic production the Ministry of Finance levies tariffs.

Textile industry with its own ministry and many promotional programs 
The Ministry of Textiles subsidizes the sector through several programs, which support the technical modernization, the construction of industrial parks, qualification, training and marketing. Garment factories may even be reimbursed for duties and fees paid. For this purpose the budget of the Ministry of Textiles was once again significantly increased in the financial year 2017/18.

The textile and clothing industry does not only want to score on the domestic market, it also wants to play a bigger international role. In a five-year plan, the Ministry of Textiles had targeted an expansion of exports to USD 64 billion by 2016/17. This target has not yet been achieved, in 215/16 the exports of textiles and clothing amounted to USD 37.6 billion. The exports of textiles even shrank against the year before. 

Textile and clothing industry in India (financial years from April to March) 
  2014/15 2015/16
Export of textiles in USD Billion  21.7 20.6
Imports of textiles in USD Billion 5.5 5.4
Export of clothing in USD Billion 16.8 17.0
Imports of clothing in USD Billion 0.5 0.6
Change in the production of textiles (in %) 3.7 2.2
Change in the production of clothing (in %) 0.2 14.7

Sources: Ministry of Textiles, Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

The local garment industry has good chances of development on a large and growing domestic market. According to industry estimates the retail sector sold clothing worth approximately USD 45 billion in 2016. Experts say the world's fifth-largest market is expected to grow well above 10% in the medium term. The backlog of the 1.3 billion inhabitants is not yet covered. The trade imports international branded goods mainly from China and Bangladesh. Standard articles and custom-made products are sewn by the local industry.

Garment sector with opportunities and problems 
Cheap wages are a location advantage. They vary however very different within the subcontinent. The statutory minimum wage regulations differ between the 29 federal states. In addition the person's age, the company membership and abilities are used to calculate the minimum wage.

Due to the increasing production costs in China, labor-intensive manufacturing is moving to more favorable locations. Not only labor costs play a major role here. The complex labor law strongly restricts the efficiency of labor markets in India. Investors consider the labor law, logistics and the structure of supply chains as to be difficult. The World Bank found in its study "Stitches to Riches" in 2016 (see https://www.openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986) that Bangladesh, Indonesia, Cambodia and Vietnam, surpass the competitor India in the points quality, delivery times, reliability and sustainable social responsibility.

India is also missing free trade agreements (FTAs) which facilitate access to international markets and regulate them reliably. The European Union and India have been negotiating as an example a comprehensive FTA for over 10 years with longer interruptions.

Fragmented sector structure with international Champions 
Information on the number of companies, their size classes and investment volumes are not available. Smaller textile companies and retailers are partially not registered and do not pay taxes. Medium-sized companies are very flexible, but they need to   mechanize, automate and upgrade technically in order to survive.
Larger companies look back on their long-standing tradition and have developed into internationally networked corporations. According to the Indian financial service Moneycontrol, the three largest corporations in the clothing industry are: KPR Mills (last net sales circa USD 300 million), Page Industries (USD 270 million) and Gokaldas Exports (USD 170 million); In the textile sector in general: Bombay Rayon (some USD 640 million), Sutlej Textiles (USD 350 million), SEL Manufacturing (USD  300 million), Mandhana Industries (USD 250 million); in the knitting sector: Nahar Industrial Enterprises (USD 270 million), Rupa (USD 160 million); Cotton spinning: Vardhman Textiles (USD 860 million), Trident (USD 560 million), Indo Count (USD 310 million); Spinning of synthetic fibers: RSWM (USD 450 million), Indorama (USD 390 million), Sangam (USD 230 million); Weaving and other processes: Alok Industries (USD 1.8 billion), Welspun (USD x750 million), Garden Silk (USD 370 million); Other areas: Arvind (USD 830 million), Nahar Spinning (USD 310 million), JBF Industries (USD 550 million), Bombay Dyeing (USD 280 million).

Foreign textile companies invest and explore
The government is promoting the "Make in India" campaign in the textile sector for foreign direct investments. Company foundations are for 100% in foreign hands (see http://www.makeinindia.com/sector/textiles-and-garments). The sector attracted USD 2.4 billion from 2000 to 2016 in FDI.

Foreign companies can explore the markets at various trade fairs. The textile ministry wants to expand the “Textiles India”, which took place in Gandhinagar (Gujarat) in June 2017, to a mega-event (https://www.textilesindia2017.com). The international garment industry also met at the same time at the „India International Garment Fair" (http://www.indiaapparelfair.com).

The "National Garment Fair" will take place from July 10th to 12th in Mumbai (http://cmai.fingoh.com/event/65th-national-garment-fair-1/Registration). And Messe Frankfurt is organizing "Techtextil India" from September 13th to 15th in Mumbai. Here German exhibitors can participate in a community stand (http://www.auma.de/de/messedatenbank/seiten/moesetailseite.aspx?tf=135499).

Internet addresses
Name Internet address Remarks
Germany Trade & Invest http://www.gtai.de/Indien Foreign trade information for the German export economy
AHK Indien http://www.indien.ahk.de Starting point for German companies 
Ministry of Textiles http://www.texmin.nic.in Ministry
Office of Textile Commissioner http://www.txcindia.gov.in Authority
Confederation of Indian Textile Industry http://www.citiindia.com Textile confederation
Textile Association India http://www.textileassociationindia.org Textile industry association
The Clothing Manufacturers of India http://www.cmai.in Clothing industry association

 

Source:

Thomas Hundt, Germany Trade & Invest www.gtai.de

Turkish State pushes sluggish Economy © Bildpixel/ pixelio.de
06.09.2016

TURKISH STATE PUSHES SLUGGISH ECONOMY

  • Low interest rates and government subsidies should drive consumption and Investments
  • Less start-ups and fewer direct foreign investment

Istanbul (GTAI) - After the failed coup attempt of July 15th 2016 the Turkish government wants to support the economy. Financial relief, government subsidies and a low interest rate policy should aim strengthening of consumption and investment and eliminate the arisen uncertainty in the business world. At the same time the overall savings ratio should be increased and the basis for financing of major infrastructure projects be improved.

The target of the government for an economic growth of 4.5% in 2016 appears now as no longer realistic. After the impressive increase of 4.8% in Q1 2016 government representatives expect for the rest of the year lower numbers, so that for the full year 2016 a growth of around 3.0 to 3.5% could be achieved.

  • Low interest rates and government subsidies should drive consumption and Investments
  • Less start-ups and fewer direct foreign investment

Istanbul (GTAI) - After the failed coup attempt of July 15th 2016 the Turkish government wants to support the economy. Financial relief, government subsidies and a low interest rate policy should aim strengthening of consumption and investment and eliminate the arisen uncertainty in the business world. At the same time the overall savings ratio should be increased and the basis for financing of major infrastructure projects be improved.

The target of the government for an economic growth of 4.5% in 2016 appears now as no longer realistic. After the impressive increase of 4.8% in Q1 2016 government representatives expect for the rest of the year lower numbers, so that for the full year 2016 a growth of around 3.0 to 3.5% could be achieved.

But not only the failed coup attempt and subsequent the internal political turmoil are affecting the economic development. Also the in the recent months clearly increased geopolitical risks, the armed conflicts along the southeastern border with Syria and Iraq, and the threat of terrorist attacks are pressing on the business climate.

The number of start-ups is declining since April 2016th. According to the Turkish Chamber Union TOBB (Türkiye Odalar ve Borsalar Birligi) in July a provisional low point with a decline of about 34% over the same month of last year has been reached.

Establishment of new companies
Month 2015 2016

Change (%)

January 6,471 6,894 6,5
February 5,509 6,363 15,5
March 6,092 7,117 16,8
April 6,022 5,860 -2,7
May 5,635 5,422 -3,8
June 5,896 5,571 -5,5
July 4,760 4,760 -34,1
January til July 40,385 40,363 -0,1

Source: Turkish Union of Chambers of Commerce TOBB (http://www.tobb.org.tr)

"Tailored" state support for Investors

Despite a rising inflation (annual increase of consumer prices in late July 2016: 8.8%) since several months the Turkish Central Bank is lowering the interest rates in small steps and ensures an increasing liquidity. For investors the government is planning generous subsidies. In the words of economy minister Nihat Zeybekci the government investment promotion is standing before fundamental changes. The plan includes "unlimited, customized and project-based" facilitations for specific sectors, which will go far beyond current incentives.

In this context Zeybekci named metallurgy, petrochemical, pharmaceutical and medical technology, in addition the renewable energy and modern agricultural technologies. In addition to extensive tax breaks the planned state aids will also include subsidizing the salaries of highly skilled employees, a free allocation of land, subsidies of taxes and energy subsidies. With this especially international investors should be won and high technology projects should become supported.

Foreign direct investments slumped in the first half year of 2016

According to the Turkish Ministry of Economy foreign direct investment declined in the 1st half of 2016 compared with the same period of last year by 55%. In 2015 a net amount of USD 16.9 billion flowed into Turkey, and in 2014 approximately USD 12.5 billion. Of these USD 5.3 billion or resp. USD 4.2 billion were invested in real estate.

Foreign direct investment in Turkey without real estate (in USD million)
Sector 1.Halfyear 2015  1.Halfyear 2016  Change (in %)
Agriculture 5   24 380
Industry 2,710 866 -68
Mining 185 17 -91
Manufacturing  1,445 607 -58
Food, Beverages, Tobacco products 257 171 -33
Textile and Clothing 399 21 -95
Leather and leather goods 2 8 300
Wood and wooden products 0 1 -
Paper and paperproducts 4 20 400
Coke and refined petroleum products 500 11 -98
Chemical and pharmaceutical 
  products
69 136 97
Coutchouk and plastic products  21 54 157
Non metal  mineral products - 23 -
Metal and metal products 36 24 -33
Machines and machinery equipment 5 20 300
Electronic and optical products 46 98 113
Automotives 90 8 -91
Furniture 16 12 -25
Electricity, Gas 1,078 242 -78
Water, wastewater, waste-disposal 2 0 -100
Services  2,066 1,274 -38
Total  4,781 2,164 -55

Source: Turkish Ministry of Economy (Ekonomi Bakanligi, http://www.ekonomi.gov.tr)

State fund to finance infrastructure projects established

Of particular importance for the future financing of large infrastructure projects, especially in the transportation sector, is the law No. 6741 of  08  /19th / 2016, establishing the Turkey-Property Fund (Türkiye Varlik fonu - Sovereign Wealth Fund). The law, which was announced in the government Gazette No. 29813 on 08 / 26th /2016 regulates the structure and operational rules of the new fund, which originally was to be filled from the state budget and privatization proceeds and should have started with an initial capital of TL 50 million. The law provides the establishment of a stock corporation that will be responsible for investments, stakes and other commitments of the fund. The financial market operations of the fund are according to paragraph 8 of the law 6741largely exempt from taxes and fees.

From the new Turkey-Fund the government expects major funding contributions for ongoing and upcoming major projects. These include the third international airport in Istanbul and the planned "Canal Istanbul", which will run parallel to the Bosporus. Expected to the ideas of the government the fund should bring an annual contribution of 1.5 percentage points to the real GDP growth over the next ten years. Economy Minister Zeybekci expects through the fund in the long term an asset control of about USD 200 billion.

Debts to the State can be paid by installments

Companies that are under financial pressure should be relieved by the law no. 6736 for the restructuring of public demands from March 8th 2016. This came in force after the publication in the government Gazette no. 29806 of August 19th 2016. With this law firms and persons, which have debts at the tax office or at social security institutions, can get the possibility to settle their outstanding claims, including failure surcharges by installments within 18 months. On claims up to TL 50 (1 Euro = 3.31 TL) the state will entirely dispense. The redemption of debt from tourism enterprises, which are due in2016, will in accordance to the law shifted by one year.

The private retirement provision for all workers should increase the savings rate 

In order to increase the country's low savings rate, the Turkish government has adopted the law no. 6740 on August 10th 201616, which gets into force on January 1st 2017 (promulgated in the government Gazette No. 29812 on August 25th 2016). With this law, changing the law no. 4632 of March 28th 2001 about the voluntary private retirement provision all workers aged less than 45 years and of Turkish nationality will in the future "automatically" be included in the system of the private pensions system. Affected employees however have the right, within two months from the inclusion date to declare their abandonment and leave the system.

BREXIT: Italian economy relatively little affected © Bernd Kasper/ pixelio.de
09.08.2016

BREXIT: ITALIAN ECONOMY RELATIVELY LITTLE AFFECTED

  • Banking Crisis comes to a head
  • Foreign Trade rather little affected
  • Tourism Industry looks at the Development of the British Currency

Milan (GTAI) – According to a study by the rating agency S & P Italy is among the European countries that are least affected by the Brexit referendum. Nevertheless, the after the Brexit resulting market turmoil threatens to slow the fragile recovery of the Italian economy and to lead the already ailing banks in a crisis. The United Kingdom is the fourth most important export market for Italian goods; British tourists are a major source of income for the tourism.

  • Banking Crisis comes to a head
  • Foreign Trade rather little affected
  • Tourism Industry looks at the Development of the British Currency

Milan (GTAI) – According to a study by the rating agency S & P Italy is among the European countries that are least affected by the Brexit referendum. Nevertheless, the after the Brexit resulting market turmoil threatens to slow the fragile recovery of the Italian economy and to lead the already ailing banks in a crisis. The United Kingdom is the fourth most important export market for Italian goods; British tourists are a major source of income for the tourism.

The outcome of the British referendum threatens the delicate recovery of the Italian economy. The business association Confindustria has reduced its GDP growth forecast for 2016 from 1.4% to 0.8%. However, compared to other EU Member States and according to various studies, Italy is little affected directly of the intended withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the EU, but the indirect effects through the market turbulence could become serious.

In a study about the “Brexit sensitivity" of 20 countries made by the rating agency S & P Italy comes on the penultimate place, ahead of Austria. The study analyzes the Brexit effects in the fields of export, finance, foreign direct investments and migration. The reasons for Italy's position are obvious: Compared to other European countries, exports of Italy to the United Kingdom are relatively small. In addition, the financial sector is "relatively Italian". In a European comparison, foreign direct investments in Italy are low; this also concerns the share of investment from the United Kingdom in Italy.

According to the S & P study among the Italian economic areas the activities of the financial sector are the most affected by the Brexit. Volatile markets as a result of the Brexit provide further uncertainty in the sector, which, after the long economic crisis is suffering among other things in their balance sheets under bad loans. In the days after the event the share prices of the Italian banks plunged into the depths. The Italian Government is negotiating with the EU on a new bailout.

The UK is an important trading partner 

The decision of the British could have a negative impact on the Italian exports in various sectors. According to the Italian statistical office ISTAT the United Kingdom is ranked 6 of the trading partners in Italy. At the same time, the UK is the fourth largest market for Italian goods. The overall imports from the United Kingdom were EUR 10.6 billion in 2015, while the exports were significantly higher at EUR 22.5 billion. In 2015 the share of the total Italian exports amounted to 5.5%. The Italians sold more only in the United States (8.9%), France (10.5%) and Germany (12.6%).

The risks for the Italian exports may not be underestimated; experts expect a loss of Italian exports to the United Kingdom of EUR 1 to 3 billion. The losses concern primarily the processing industry. According to the study "Il Brexit e l'Italia" of the research institute Nomisma of June 2016, 97% of the Italian exports are finished goods. The most important product groups of Italian exports to the United Kingdom are machinery and equipment (EUR 3.5 billion), food and beverages (EUR 3.1 billion), chemical products (EUR 2.6 billion), Automotive and - parts (EUR 2.6 billion), fashion and clothing (EUR 2.3 billion) and processed and unprocessed metal products (EUR 1.5 billion).

Particularly dependent on British customers are the wineries and furniture designers. For the Italian wine sector the United Kingdom is one of the most important markets. In 2015 Italian wine producers were able to sell wine worth of EUR 745 million, accounting for a share of 14% of total Italian wine exports. The Italian furniture designers sold in 2015 products worth of EUR 950 million to the United Kingdom, what represents a share of 10% of total Italian furniture exports.

Northern Italy has close economic ties with the United Kingdom

According to the Nomisma study the Italian regions are different linked with the economy in the United Kingdom. More than two thirds of Italian exports to the United Kingdom are coming from northern Italy. Nevertheless, northern Italy is less affected by the Brexit than southern Italy, because the proportion of northern Italian exports to the United Kingdom of the total exports of northern Italy is markedly lower than in the south.

From the southern Italian region of Basilicata 15% of the exports go to the United Kingdom. The high rate is due to the Fiat factory in the municipality of Melfi, where two car models are being produced. From Abruzzo and Campania circa 10% of the regional exports are sold in the United Kingdom.

eyond the foreign trade the Italian restaurant and hotel operators are anxious about the impact of the Brexit: According to Banca D'Italia British tourists ranked on the 6th place of tourists and business travelers in 2015. However - the 4.4 million British visitors expended on average per capita significantly more per day than any other European travelers. Overall the expenditure of the British amounted to just over 3 billion euros in 2015 - or more than 8% of the total expenditure of foreign tourists in Italy. A devaluation of the British currency could affect adversely both the number of tourists as well as their expenditure per capita.